Pump.fun 会让 Solana 链环境快速 BNB 链化吗?

深潮Published on 2024-07-22Last updated on 2024-07-22

大多数人参不透「汝能持否」的玄妙,自以为熬夜打土狗是努力奋斗,殊不知注定折腾干净珍贵的 SOL。

撰文:NingNing

近期听到一种说法:Pump fun 正在毒化 Solana 的生态环境, 将导致 Solana 链环境快速 BNB 链化。届时,Solana 生态再也生长不出优质资产,而遍地将是 3 秒钟 Rug 土狗、地推 Ponzi 盘,一如现在的 BNB 链。

这种担心,不无道理。Pump fun 的出现,通过结合一级市场的 bonding curve( 联合曲线 ) 和二级市场的 AMM 算法, 将 meme 币发行标准化进而工业化。

而发行 meme 币是一个完全自由竞争市场,在这样的博弈格局下,越是见好就收秒级 RUG 的 DEV,越可以凭借变相分散风险和增强资金效率,成为市场的赢家。最终这个市场所有 meme 发行团队都不再有格局。

根据链上数据,Pump fun 相关的 TX 最近已经占到总 TX 的 38.4%。Solana 从一个美式自由主义加密理念的实例化公链生态,从北美 be real 的乐子人天堂, 悄然蜕变成一个东南亚 Rug 盘乐园和赌狗集中营。

Solana 1.0 版本 Meme 币的快乐、玩梗、赚外快的田园牧歌已不再,现在进入工业化的收割与反收割对轰时代。每天都在上演 MEV Bot 大战、电报 Bot 大战、聪明钱地址内幕操纵、圈外名人发币收割的闹剧。

截至目前,Pump fun 的总部署 tx 笔数约为 142.17 万。这里的 1 笔 tx 代表部署 1 个 meme 币。大家可以自行统计一下从出自 Pump fun 的 $10M 市值以上的 meme 币有多少,就会明白 Pump fun 本质是一个小赢率、低赔率的负 EV 老虎机。沉迷 Pump fun 打土狗,最终是为人家平台收入做燃料。Pump fun 目前已收入 444300 个 Sol,这都是幻想一夜暴富赌狗爱的奉献。

目前 Solana 的 Staking 收益约为 7%,月度风险调整回报平均值 6.18%。持有 SOL 并 Staking,然后什么都不做,就可以获得非常丰厚的回报。但大多数人参不透「汝能持否」的玄妙,自以为熬夜打土狗是努力奋斗,殊不知注定折腾干净珍贵的 SOL。

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Solana Proposals Could Lead to Reduction in Staking Yields to 2.25% and Cut Emissions by $1.5 Billion

Solana is moving towards a stricter monetary model that could lead to a SOL deficit and significantly reduce staking rewards for holders. Two governance proposals drive these changes. SIMD-550, currently under vote, would double Solana's annual disinflation rate from 15% to 30%, accelerating the timeline to reach a final inflation rate of ~1.5% to the first half of 2029. The second, SIMD-553 (already approved), introduces additional token burning tied to computational units used on the network. Together, these measures could reduce SOL emission by an estimated $1.4-$1.5 billion over six years. The immediate impact would be lower staking yields, potentially falling from the current ~5.25% to approximately 4.34% in year one, 3% in year two, and 2.25% by year three. Analyst Matt Mena from 21Shares suggests inflation should be tied to economic metrics to help offset this decline. The changes also raise concerns for validator economics, with some potentially becoming unprofitable as inflation rewards decrease and voting costs may rise. However, the lower passive yield might push a significant portion of the 67.9% staked SOL into Solana's DeFi ecosystem for activities like lending and trading. This shift could boost network fee revenue to compensate for lower inflation rewards. The proposals aim to trade lower yield today for less dilution tomorrow, betting that network growth and usage will make this a worthwhile trade-off for SOL holders.

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Solana Proposals Could Lead to Reduction in Staking Yields to 2.25% and Cut Emissions by $1.5 Billion

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