SignalPlus宏观分析(20240126)：GBTC资金持续流出

Odaily星球日报Pubblicato 2024-01-26Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-01-26

Introduzione

随著BTC现货ETF的批准尘埃落定，市场观点变得更加负面，后续价格走势令人失望，BTC难以维持在4万美元以上。

欧洲央行连续第三次维持利率不变，不过行长 Lagarde 通过声明和评论表达了鸽派转向的立场；先前声明中的评论“由于劳动单位成本持续增长，价格压力仍然居高不下”在这次欧洲央行声明中被省略，同时 Lagarde 在记者会上表示“通胀放缓正在进行中”，且价格压力将“在这一年中进一步缓解”，此外，虽然她重申委员会认为“讨论降息还为时过早”，但她对这一评论也有所保留，表示如果通胀放缓取得更多进展，降息“有可能”在夏季或夏季前发生。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240126)：GBTC资金持续流出

与美国类似，政策制定者已经明确转向，并提前宣布对抗通胀的胜利，但有迹象表明投入价格可能已达短期底部，我们可能很快就会需要应对价格的反弹，特别是如果航道关闭和油价上涨的情况继续恶化。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240126)：GBTC资金持续流出

美国方面，第四季度经济数据显示美国经济情况仍十分强劲，GDP 增长 3.3% ，大幅超出预期的 2.0% ，个人消费支出也优于预期，强劲的政府支出、库存增加和正面的净出口构成了增长的主要因素，最终需求也保持在目标水平。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240126)：GBTC资金持续流出

美联储和债券市场在软著陆的叙事中再次取得胜利，GDP 走强、消费支出保持稳健、价格压力持续放缓以及就业市场逐渐降温（初请失业金人数 + 2.7 万）推动收益率在牛陡走势中走低；此外，欧洲央行的鸽派立场、中国的救市计划以及略低于预期的东京 CPI 也帮助维持资产价格，虽然 Tesla 股价大跌 11% ，Intel 业绩预测惨淡，但 S&P 500 指数仍徘徊在历史高点附近。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240126)：GBTC资金持续流出

随著 BTC 现货 ETF 的批准尘埃落定，市场观点变得更加负面，后续价格走势令人失望，BTC 难以维持在 4 万美元以上。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240126)：GBTC资金持续流出

ETF 推出的 9 天后，净流出加速至约 1.53 亿美元，与第一周 12 亿美元的流入形成鲜明对比。JPM 比较了 BTC 现货 ETF 和 GLD（黄金 ETF），后者在推出一年后仅吸引了 35 亿美元的资金流入，远低于各界预测的 100-500 亿美元，迄今为止，BTC 现货 ETF 推出一周后的资金流入表现也落后于 GLD，主要是受到 GBTC 持续赎回的影响。

考虑到长期 GBTC 持有者仍有巨额收益未实现，加上 Grayscale 相比于新 ETF 费用较高，短期内 GBTC 的资金流出很可能会持续，当前的市场防守情绪也将持续较长一段时间。

SignalPlus宏观分析(20240126)：GBTC资金持续流出

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