银行业危机已成过去,美联储注意力重回“高通胀”

PanewsPublished on 2023-03-31Last updated on 2023-03-31

Abstract

美联储官员们在最新讲话中继续强调降低通胀的必要性。周四共有三位美联储高级官员发言,他们的立场与上周美联储主席鲍威尔表态相呼应,也即尽管银行业面临压力,但政策制定者们不会因此不顾恢复价格稳定的责任。

美联储官员们在最新讲话中继续强调降低通胀的必要性。周四共有三位美联储高级官员发言,他们的立场与上周美联储主席鲍威尔表态相呼应,也即尽管银行业面临压力,但政策制定者们不会因此不顾恢复价格稳定的责任。

波士顿联储主席

波士顿联储主席Collins表示,美国通胀仍然过高,最近的指标强化了这一观点,即要将通胀率降至2%的目标,还有更多工作要做。

Collins认为,加息25个基点是“适当”的步伐,这样美联储可以将利率提高到足够高,以抑制通胀。

Collins在今年的FOMC会议上不拥有表决权。

明尼阿波利斯联储主

明尼阿波利斯联储主席Kashkari指出,银行业压力的持续时间往往比政策制定者们最初预期的要长。但他认为,现在判断银行业危机将对经济产生什么影响还为时过早。

Kashkari强调,美联储还需要关注降低通胀。当前美国通胀过高,而且尽管美联储在过去12个月里进行了一系列激进的加息,但不包括住房的服务业通胀仍然很高。

“经济中服务业部分的通胀尚未放缓,虽然我们想要更高的工资,但工资增长速度快于2%的通胀目标。这说明,要使经济中的服务业恢复平衡,我们还有更多工作要做。”

Kashkari曾是2008-2009年时期,美国政府应对金融危机的核心人物。他在今年的FOMC会议上拥有表决权。

里士满联储主席

里士满联储主席Barkin表示,他准备继续对抗通胀。但他同时表示,鉴于银行业的不确定性及其对更广泛经济的影响,他对美联储下一步利率变动的规模还没有偏好。

“如果通胀持续存在,我们可以通过进一步加息来应对。就在几周前,一些人还呼吁加息50个基点。”

美联储很难

上周,美联储如期加息25个基点,令基准的联邦基金利率升至4.75%-5%目标区间,为2007年9月、即金融危机爆发前夕以来的最高水平。

美联储的决议声明删除了“持续加息适宜”,改为“一些额外的政策紧缩可能是适当的”,被解读为鸽派论调。“点阵图”仍维持今年底利率预期在5.1%不变,或只能再温和加息一次。

美联储在声明中表示,美国银行业健康、有韧性,但警告诸多倒闭事件将拖累经济增长,市场对年内降息的押注升温。

本月早些时候,硅谷银行引发的银行危机一度令部分官员的立场有所软化。美联储主席鲍威尔上周在新闻发布会上透露,在3月FOMC会议开始的前几天,美联储曾考虑过暂停加息,但加息行动得到FOMC成员强有力的一致支持,因为通胀太高。

从美国PMI数据中就可以看到通胀的端倪。上周,标准普尔全球公布的美国3月PMI数据初值显示,3月服务业和制造业PMI回升,其中服务业明显更强劲,但代价是通胀重燃——3月销售价格的调查指标以更快的速度增长。通胀上升是由服务业价格上涨带动的,这在很大程度上与工资增长更快有关。

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