Berachain faces Feb 6th deadline – Will Nova refund trigger a crash?

ambcryptoPublished on 2026-01-18Last updated on 2026-01-18

Abstract

Berachain's BERA token recently surged, gaining 15.48% in 24 hours and 62.58% over the week. The rally began on January 14th following the announcement of the "Bera Builds Businesses" model, signaling a strategic shift toward generating real cash flow. However, risks remain. The chain’s TVL has dropped significantly from $3 billion to $178 million, and it faces scrutiny over downside protection offered to an institutional investor. A key concern is the February 6th, 2026 deadline for Brevan Howard’s Nova fund refund clause, casting doubt on the rally's timing. Despite strong bullish momentum on charts, investors are advised to proceed with caution and consider taking profits.

Berachain [BERA] was seizing attention and capital flows recently.

Over the past 24 hours, the DeFi liquidity-focused blockchain token has rallied 15.48% in the past 24 hours, and was up 62.58% in a week.

Why is BERA rallying?

The gains began on the 14th of January, when BERA prices were at $0.593 at the beginning of the day. The Berachain end-of-year update sent prices soaring after the introduction of the “Bera Builds Businesses” model.

This model illustrated the Berachain Foundation’s move towards cash flow.

As part of its bid to become an established blockchain, the chain will “internally build, acquire, or partner closely with a small set of businesses that directly create value” for the BERA token.

The threats ahead for investors

While this was exceedingly positive news for investors, some threats were lurking. Earlier in 2025, the Total Value Locked (TVL) on the chain had plunged from $3 billion. It was only $178 million at the time of writing, DeFiLlama data showed.

It also faced increased scrutiny after an investigation revealed it gave an institutional investor downside protection.

This is a rare, controversial provision that is generally not applicable in the industry to underperforming assets.

The deadline for the BERA refund clause for Brevan Howard’s Nova fund is the 6th of February, 2026. That is why the timing of the current rally is suspect.

Investors must DYOR and navigate the situation cautiously.

The 1-day chart showed that, even after the recent gains, BERA was down 69.64% from the $3.08 high it made in the first week of October. The structure on the 1-day timeframewas starting to turn bullish.

The RSI was above 60 to show strong bullish momentum and the OBV made new highs to reflect the heavy buying pressure recently.

This could continue to drive the rally higher, but holders and traders should consider taking profits.


Final Thoughts

  • The Bera Builds Businesses model showed a turn toward real cash flow, such as internally building apps that generate revenue.
  • The price action was firmly bullish recently, but the controversial Nova refund’s deadline was inching closer.

Related Questions

QWhat is the main reason behind Berachain's (BERA) recent price rally according to the article?

AThe rally began on January 14th, 2025, after the Berachain end-of-year update introduced the 'Bera Builds Businesses' model, which signaled the foundation's move towards generating cash flow.

QWhat is the 'Nova refund' and why is its February 6th, 2026 deadline a potential threat?

AThe Nova refund is a controversial provision that offered downside protection to an institutional investor (Brevan Howard's Nova fund) for underperforming assets, which is rare in the industry. The approaching deadline makes the timing of the current price rally suspect, as it could trigger significant selling pressure.

QHow much has Berachain's Total Value Locked (TVL) declined from its peak, and what was its value at the time of writing?

AThe TVL had plunged from a peak of $3 billion earlier in 2025 to just $178 million at the time the article was written.

QWhat do the technical indicators (RSI and OBV) suggest about the current market momentum for BERA?

AThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) was above 60, indicating strong bullish momentum. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) made new highs, reflecting heavy recent buying pressure.

QDespite the bullish price action, what cautious advice does the article give to investors?

AThe article advises investors to 'DYOR' (Do Your Own Research) and navigate the situation cautiously. It also suggests that holders and traders should consider taking profits due to the underlying threats like the upcoming refund deadline.

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