Matrixport Research: Bitcoin Falls into Bear Market Territory, Could a Weakening Dollar Become the Next Support?
After a recent correction, Bitcoin's price structure has weakened further, trading below the 21-week moving average—a technical signal of a bear market. Historically, Bitcoin tends to face downward pressure during U.S. mid-term election years and within its typical four-year cycle. However, with a weaker U.S. dollar and ongoing reflation narrative, risk assets may still find support.
The October 10 flash crash marked a turning point, widening cross-asset pricing gaps and reducing short-term liquidity. Realized losses were largely concentrated among speculative retail investors, particularly on platforms like Hyperliquid, rather than institutional players.
Macro conditions show dollar weakness, which has historically supported Bitcoin, and Trump's tolerance for a weaker dollar may sustain reflation trades. Yet, risk appetite is cooling: stablecoin supply growth has slowed, and retail interest remains low. Quantum computing concerns continue to weigh on Bitcoin's safe-haven narrative.
While the dollar's 14-year uptrend has broken—a potential long-term support for Bitcoin—the current price structure remains weak, with rebounds often sold. The outlook is cautiously constructive but awaits stronger technical and capital flow signals before turning bullish.
marsbit02/01 11:18
