# Product-Market Fit Articoli collegati

Il Centro Notizie HTX fornisce gli articoli più recenti e le analisi più approfondite su "Product-Market Fit", coprendo tendenze di mercato, aggiornamenti sui progetti, sviluppi tecnologici e politiche normative nel settore crypto.

This Cycle, Stop Paying for Stories

Based on discussions with experienced on-chain participants, there is a consensus that the current market cycle demands a shift in strategy: from buying into narratives and expectations to focusing on verifiable fundamentals and cash flow. Key takeaways include: 1) Prioritize assets with real value capture. In a bear market, protocols that generate consistent fees and directly reward token holders through mechanisms like buybacks, burns, or dividends become essential. Examples cited are launchpad-related tokens and notable buyback tokens. 2) Select projects with proven Product-Market Fit (PMF) and a complete operational loop. The next cycle will likely focus on utility and real-world validation, particularly in narratives like asset tokenization and the Agentic Economy. Projects without genuine users, transaction loops, or revenue will be filtered out. Metrics such as Assets Under Management (AUM), trading volume, and fee generation are critical for evaluation. 3) Opt for assets with strong, organically grown "consensus." This refers to enduring community belief that survives market cycles, not manufactured hype. Examples include veteran meme coins and established sector leaders that maintain liquidity and community vitality over time. 4) Avoid purely VC-backed tokens. These often suffer from high Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV), low circulating supply, and continuous, large unlocks. Without inherent value capture, they typically rely on pre-launch airdrop hype and face significant sell-pressure upon unlocks, posing substantial risk to retail investors. (Note: The mentioned tokens are for illustrative purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.)

marsbit08/11 10:26

This Cycle, Stop Paying for Stories

marsbit08/11 10:26

Opinion: Altcoins Might Still Have a Chance, but VC-Backed Coins Are Truly Hopeless

Author: Haotian. Through deep discussions with experienced on-chain investors, a consensus has emerged on survival strategies for the current market cycle: the focus has decisively shifted from "narratives and speculation" to "cash flow and tangible validation." Several key principles are outlined: 1) Prioritize assets with genuine value capture. In a bear market, sustainable protocol fees and a proven record of using them for token buybacks, burns, or dividends are essential. Examples include launchpad tokens like $UNI, $PUMP, $PONS, and the notable buyback token $HYPE. 2) Choose only projects with proven Product-Market Fit (PMF) and a complete operational loop. The next cycle's narratives, likely around "real-world asset tokenization" and the "Agentic Economy," will favor practical validation over technical roadmaps. Projects must demonstrate real users, transaction volume, and revenue. Examples such as $ONDO, $VVV, and $VIRTUAL will be evaluated on metrics like Assets Under Management (AUM) and fee generation. 3) Opt for assets with strong, organically developed "consensus." True consensus is market-driven and survives multiple cycles, not manufactured through marketing. Examples include enduring meme coins like $DOGE, $PEPE, $PEOPLE, or established sector leaders like $ZEC and $TAO, which benefit from resilient communities and sustained liquidity. 4) Avoid purely venture-capital (VC)-backed tokens. Unlike general altcoins which may cycle back, VC coins are seen as particularly problematic. Their typical high Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV), low circulating supply, and continuous large unlock schedules often lead to post-unlock sell pressure, especially if the project lacks inherent value capture. This dynamic is a key factor in the current cycle's restrained rallies and deep corrections, discouraging retail participation. *Note: This is a summary of personal discussions. Mentioned tokens are examples only, not investment advice.*

marsbit08/11 05:21

Opinion: Altcoins Might Still Have a Chance, but VC-Backed Coins Are Truly Hopeless

marsbit08/11 05:21

Alliance Co-founder's Letter to Entrepreneurs: Written at the Moment Cursor Sold for $600 Billion

Alliance Co-founder's Letter to Entrepreneurs: On Cursor's $60 Billion Sale Many aspiring founders see massive exits like Cursor's $60B sale and wonder why they can't achieve the same, often concluding opportunities are exhausted. But great companies aren't built in obvious, crowded spaces. Cursor, like Stripe, Figma, and Shopify before it, started with a non-consensus belief about the future. Before ChatGPT, they believed AI would transform knowledge work. They focused on a genuinely exciting domain, became their own customer, and obsessed over power users. Their journey involved years of "glass-chewing" effort before the market was ready. The pattern is consistent: identify a long-term technological shift, find a missed entry point, and execute for years before the trend becomes obvious. First-generation products (PayPal, Adobe, Amazon) prove a market exists. Second-generation winners (Stripe, Figma, Shopify) rebuild that market around new insights, technology, or changing customer behaviors. Founders must identify their phase in the cycle. Early entrants like Coinbase or Cursor focus on making new technology usable for power users. Later entrants find the "yin" to the established "yang"—the blind spots incumbents miss as they grow distant from individual users. The key is deep market immersion. Use every product in your space. Talk to users. Build an audience. Stop looking for ideas and start *seeing* them everywhere. Then, choose one. The idea must offer a 10x improvement or solve a "hair-on-fire" pain point—something severe enough that users are already crafting workarounds. When building, avoid feature bloat. Ask: why would someone switch? Great startups rarely force new behaviors; they improve familiar workflows with drastically lower friction (e.g., Cursor forked VS Code instead of creating a new editor). Distribution is the underestimated moat. Before product-market fit, achieve distribution-market fit. How do customers discover new tools? Founders like those at Airbnb, Stripe, and Cursor did unscalable, manual work to recruit early users. The final, unteachable ingredient is resilience. Cursor built for years pre-market, faced rejection, and persisted. So did Airbnb, Nvidia, and Rain (which launched post-FTX collapse). The lesson isn't that these founders were smarter, but that they stayed in the game long enough for their insights to compound. Framework: Spot technological cycles. Cultivate unique insight. Obsess over your market. Talk to customers. Find a hair-on-fire problem. Build the simplest wedge. Win your distribution channel. Above all, don't quit when it gets hard. Most people won't do these things consistently. The few who do build the next generation of great companies. Go build.

marsbit06/20 03:47

Alliance Co-founder's Letter to Entrepreneurs: Written at the Moment Cursor Sold for $600 Billion

marsbit06/20 03:47

a16z: The Crypto Industry Enters the 'Show Me' Era

The crypto industry is entering a "show me" era, shifting from a focus on vision and promises to demanding hard evidence of execution and traction. This change is driven by heightened skepticism, regulatory scrutiny, and the serious entry of traditional finance institutions (like BlackRock, Fidelity, JPMorgan) with real, scaled products. Previously, a whitepaper and a token could capture attention. Now, credible projects must demonstrate a "proof stack": verifiable mainnet data (transactions, active users, revenue), real partnerships with tangible integrations, organic user adoption and retention metrics, and third-party validation (audits, independent analysis). Announcements alone are insufficient without underlying substance. For startups, this means narratives must be built from proven facts upwards—starting with concrete evidence points (e.g., "we reduced cross-border settlement from three days to four minutes with live corporate users") rather than leading with abstract vision. While vision remains important, the evidence-to-vision ratio has inverted; substance now must constitute the majority of the narrative. This higher bar presents an opportunity for projects with genuine product-market fit, as it filters out noise and allows their real progress to stand out. The core question for projects is whether their communication strategy is designed to showcase existing evidence or is still stuck in the phase of promising it.

marsbit06/18 04:43

a16z: The Crypto Industry Enters the 'Show Me' Era

marsbit06/18 04:43

a16z Partner: Three Paths for Crypto Projects to Find PMF

Author: Jason Rosenthal. Compiler: Shenchao TechFlow. Finding Product-Market Fit (PMF) is the most critical variable for a company's survival. In the crypto space, misaligned growth hacking and airdrops often mask the absence of true PMF. However, leading teams are now finding PMF faster. Here are three proven paths for crypto projects to achieve PMF: 1. **Co-build with Anchor Clients:** Partner with the most sophisticated potential clients in your field and develop the product based on their specific needs. Their adoption serves as the strongest validation, more valuable than media coverage or TVL metrics. This approach is shaping current product roadmaps, as seen in collaborations between crypto startups and traditional finance. 2. **Position Ahead of an Exponential Curve:** Identify and position yourself ahead of a major emerging trend before the market fully realizes it. The most evident current curve is the rise of AI Agents as autonomous economic actors. Projects like AgentCash by Merit Systems, which enables AI Agents to pay for API access with crypto, are building foundational payment rails for the impending Agent economy. 3. **Be Your Own First and Best Customer:** The most enduring infrastructure companies don't wait for external validation. They first build and prove their technology by using it to power their own applications at scale before offering it to others. Matter Labs exemplifies this by anchoring its ZKsync technology in a concrete application, Cari Network, which enables U.S. regional banks to conduct real-time, on-chain interbank transfers of tokenized deposits. The underlying logic is consistent: the fastest path to PMF involves choosing the right battlefield and executing with conviction—by co-building with clients whose validation compounds, positioning ahead of the curve before consensus forms, or becoming your own best case study.

marsbit06/09 02:11

a16z Partner: Three Paths for Crypto Projects to Find PMF

marsbit06/09 02:11

The Midlife Crisis of Crypto GPs: No PMF, No Next Check from LPs

The article "The Midlife Crisis of Crypto GPs: No PMF, No Next LP Check" analyzes the shifting crypto fundraising landscape. It argues the era of selling grand visions to LPs is over; GPs must now offer products with clear Product-Market Fit (PMF). The author categorizes crypto fundraising products into three types: Primary (VC funds), Liquid (trading strategies), and CeFi/DeFi Native Yield. This summary focuses on the Primary market. Key points include: * **Market Shift:** LPs are impatient, demand immediate returns, and are skeptical of future promises. The "easy money" narrative has faded. * **GP Value Erosion:** LP learning curves have shortened (aided by AI), reducing the value of a GP's basic "crypto knowledge." Superior judgment is now rare. * **Weakened LP Motivations:** Traditional reasons for LPs to invest in crypto VC funds (capturing industry beta, gaining access, leveraging GP judgment) have weakened due to new products like ETFs and increased LP sophistication. * **Surviving in Primary:** The primary market will likely persist for: 1) large funds in endowment mandates treating it as a lottery ticket, 2) family offices/HNWIs using proprietary capital, 3) a few funds with proven recent outperformance, and 4) funds with strong ecosystem "deal-making" capabilities. * **Conclusion:** For most GPs, rebuilding trust requires starting over in a niche, demonstrating alpha-generating ability, or providing concrete value/services to LPs.

marsbit06/01 14:24

The Midlife Crisis of Crypto GPs: No PMF, No Next Check from LPs

marsbit06/01 14:24

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