Morgan Stanley Research Report Analysis: The Absence of Long-Term Agreements for Traditional Memory May Not Be Bad; DDR4 and SLC NAND Are in the Strongest Price Increase Cycle
Morgan Stanley's report on August 14, 2026, highlights a strong price upcycle in traditional memory chips, arguing that the absence of Long-Term Agreements (LTAs) is advantageous. The report focuses on three products where fundamentals are improving due to a widening supply-demand gap and increased pricing power: DDR4, SLC NAND, and NOR Flash.
For DDR4, price hikes are forecasted at 50% in Q3 2026 and over 10% in Q4, driven by broad demand and accelerated supply exit. The lack of LTAs allows vendors to fully capture spot price gains. SLC NAND is identified as the highest-conviction call, with prices expected to surge over 50% in both Q3 and Q4 2026, supported by severe capacity constraints and demand migration from MLC. Supply tightness is projected to last into 2027. NOR Flash prices are also expected to rise further in Q4 2026, with momentum potentially extending into H1 2027, supported by industrial, automotive, and AI server demand.
Morgan Stanley has raised earnings estimates for several companies, with AP Memory as the top pick, followed by GigaDevice, Macronix, Winbond, Powerchip, and Nanya Tech. The core thesis is that without LTAs, traditional memory suppliers have greater pricing flexibility to benefit from the current upcycle, which for DDR4 will last through H2 2026, and for SLC NAND and NOR Flash, potentially into H1 2027.
marsbit08/17 03:26