Report Review: Kyber Delay Tear NVIDIA Supply Chain, Only a Few Winners in the PCB Chain
Research Report Analysis: Kyber's Delay Reshapes NVIDIA Supply Chain, Winners Limited in PCB Sector
Jefferies maintained a Buy rating on NVIDIA with a $300 price target (42% upside), but delivered a surprising take on the AI server PCB supply chain. The key finding is that the high-density orthogonal backplane PCB, codenamed "Kyber," is likely delayed to 2028 or even canceled. This prompts a downward revision in the global AI PCB market forecast for 2027/2028 by 5% and 11%, respectively, with CCL (copper-clad laminate) forecasts cut by 8% and 16%.
While Kyber's postponement extends the lifecycle of the current Oberon architecture and defers some PCB volume, it does not halt the trend towards higher specifications. Migration to advanced materials like M9/M10-grade CCL and PTFE processes continues. The delay reshuffles the winners' list: upstream material suppliers (glass fabric, CCL) benefit from persistent tight supply and strong pricing power. Copper cable vendors gain a reprieve as the threat from PCB-based interconnects recedes. PCB manufacturers, however, face intensified competition, with mid-tier players most vulnerable to being squeezed out.
The report stresses that the market adjustment reflects a timing shift, not a demand destruction. Kyber-related orders are deferred, not canceled. NVIDIA's core GPU competitiveness and the AI server growth trajectory remain intact. The analyst's investment thesis prioritizes "high-value-add" and "supply-constrained" segments: upstream materials > NVIDIA > copper cables > downstream PCB manufacturing. The delay accelerates a consolidation within the PCB industry, favoring companies positioned in high-end specifications and critical upstream materials.
marsbit06/23 09:52
