Ray Dalio's New Article: The World Is Entering a War Cycle
Ray Dalio argues that the world is in the early stages of a prolonged "world war" that is unlikely to end soon. This conflict is not a single declared war but a combination of multiple regional hot wars (e.g., Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Gaza, US-Iran) and non-shooting wars (economic, technological, capital, and geopolitical influence wars). These interconnected conflicts are reshaping global order, driven by shifting alliances, resource competition, and the weaponization of critical trade routes like the Strait of Hormuz.
Key powers are aligning into opposing blocs: China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea versus the US, Israel, Gulf states, Japan, and Australia. Dalio emphasizes that victory in such conflicts depends not on absolute strength but on which side can endure prolonged pain and resource depletion. He warns that the US, while powerful, is overextended globally and may struggle to manage multiple fronts simultaneously.
The current phase resembles historical pre-war periods (e.g., 1913–1914, 1938–1939), where economic and military tensions escalate into broader conflicts. Dalio urges observers to look beyond short-term events and focus on structural shifts: rising debt, internal political pressures, and the erosion of the US-led multilateral order into a "might-makes-right" system. He assesses a >50% probability of at least one major conflict escalating within five years, including scenarios in Ukraine, Korea, or the South China Sea.
marsbit04/08 15:29
