风口之上的 x402 赛道：淘金还是扫雷？

深潮Pubblicato 2025-10-27Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-10-28

真正的 x402 伟大之处，不是它的技术，不是它的产品，而是它的商业图景。

撰文：Haotian

很多自称 IQ50 的朋友们，总想得到一个明确答案，x402 赛道要如何选标的？都想借着「起风了」做风口上躺赢的。我只能说，恭喜领先一步关注 x402 赛道的朋友，但想躺赢？那风险可太大了：

1）现阶段属于 x402 混乱期，Devs、VC、CEX、Builder 们等还未达成一致共识，也无法形成有效合力，但恰恰这时候，趁机蹭概念作乱的项目会层出不穷，这让现阶段的投资难度飙升。

你以为是在淘金，实际上在扫雷；

2）很多人纳闷，为啥这么性感的赛道，价值标的会如此稀缺？

因为 x402 赛道火的突如其来，纯正的 x402 项目，正踌躇着过屌丝半生，突然的流量让他们不知所措，项目大多功能残缺，看着野鸡的不行；已经发币的 AI 相关的项目，以为就要一蹶不振了却残生了，却被突然的电疗救活，但是真能抓住 x402 机会真复活，还是回光返照，完全摸不清。

真货还没准备好，假货抢着上位；

3）此次 x402 趋势，不同于以往铭文热潮、AI Agent 热潮，虽然都靠另类「资产发行」的预期带火，但相比黄金上雕花和聊天机器人的预期，x402 炒作背靠的是 AI 支付：

一个能穿越 Crypto 和互联网山海隔阂，用区块链大基建 + 稳定币流通颠覆传统互联网广告商业模式的大机会。

这让 web2 的人没法再用「web3 骗局」一棒子打死，让 web3 AI 的人终于能挺直腰杆说「我们有真实用例」。

新老革命派，终于有了平等对话的基础；

4）x402 赛道的门槛很低，尤其是技术门槛，因为挂靠 x402 概念太容易了：

项目方一次简单的 Transfer 收钱发币，就以 x402 的名义赤裸裸圈钱；黑客一次简单的 Mint 前端 + 后台钓鱼，就能以 x402 的名义抢钱；很多项目方一次普通的合约转发跳转升级，就能以 x402 老 OG 自居；一些钱包服务方可能只是加了个 AI 自动发起转账的功能，就成了 x402 原生.....

我没有全盘否定这些为了接入 x402 协议努力的项目，但混沌早期最怕的就是用低门槛的敷衍，辜负了散户的热情。

因为，真正的 x402 伟大之处，不是它的技术，不是它的产品，而是它的商业图景。

要让 AI Agent 实现快捷丝滑的无缝支付，要让 AI Agent 按照预定条件自动且安全的执行撮合交易，要让底层 infra 承载比肩 VISA 级的交易负载，要适配的一系列上下游基建等等，这庞大的 infra 构建、优化、适配、体验等「需求」，才铸就了大家的一致共识：赛道要起飞了。

这才是我们共同预期的 x402 未来。

Letture associate

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