Аналитики CryptoQuant назвали причину роста волатильности биткоина

cryptonews.ruPubblicato 2025-02-16Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-10-17

Крупные держатели биткоинов начали активно реагировать на рыночное давление, что спровоцировало усиление волатильности первой криптовалюты, предположили аналитики компании CryptoQuant.

По данным экспертов, на 14 октября почти 14 000 BTC были не активны на протяжении от 12 до 18 месяцев. 15 октября проявила активность группа крупных держателей, чьи активы хранились без движения 3–5 лет — в обращении вышло 4 690 BTC. Всего с начала 2025 года из этой категории было перемещено почти 892 643 BTC.

Реактивация старых адресов спровоцировала всплеск индикатора Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), выросший до максимума за последний месяц. Это самый высокий уровень с июля — тогда аналогичный всплеск активности китов предшествовал падению биткоина с $120 000 до $112 000, отметили аналитики.

В течение последних дней крупные держатели переместили на биржи 17 184 BTC — это крупнейший показатель с начала месяца. Подобные всплески притоков можно считать сигналом возможного давления продаж, так как биткоины перемещаются с долгосрочных хранилищ на биржи, где их проще реализовать, указали в CryptoQuant.

Исторически подобная активность китов предшествует локальным коррекциям курса первой криптовалюты. Однако, в текущем цикле часть переводов может быть связана не только с продажами, но и с перераспределением активов между биржами на фоне роста волатильности.

Если высокая активность китов сохранится дольше обычного, это может усилить колебания цены биткоина. Постоянные притоки крупных объемов и концентрация монет у ограниченного числа игроков начинает оказывать все более сильное давление на рынок, который смещается в медвежью фазу, резюмировали эксперты.

Ранее исполнительный председатель американской компании Strategy Майкл Сэйлор (Michael Saylor) призвал всех, кто инвестирует в биткоин, не поддаваться пессимистическим настроениям и предположениям о дальнейшем падении крипторынка.

Letture associate

Quantum Computing Approaches "Q-Day": How Encryption Policy, Investment Logic, and Risk Management Are Reshaping the Landscape

Quantum Computing Nears 'Q-Day': Shaping Encryption Policy, Investment Logic, and Risk Management Quantum technology is increasingly intersecting with cryptocurrency policy and cybersecurity discussions as the potential 'Q-Day'—when quantum computers could break current encryption—approaches. While summer brings fast-paced crypto market dynamics, new U.S. legislation, and AI debates, the emerging dimension is how quantum advancements will reshape the digital asset landscape. The next phase of crypto investment is being shaped by two converging forces: clearer regulatory frameworks and cryptographic evolution driven by quantum computing. Investors stand to benefit from reduced uncertainty, but must also recognize that quantum readiness is becoming a core risk factor. Public blockchains rely on cryptography for security, and sufficiently advanced quantum machines could undermine these foundations. This does not mean imminent network collapse, but investors can no longer dismiss the timeline as irrelevant. Key questions now include whether projects have identified their cryptographic dependencies, formulated migration plans to post-quantum cryptography, and established governance for upgrades. For policymakers, the link is clear. Effective crypto policy must look beyond token classification and disclosure to address the underlying infrastructure. As stablecoins, tokenized assets, and blockchain payments integrate deeper into finance, cryptographic resilience becomes a systemic issue. Failure to prepare could lead to investor losses, operational failures, and legal disputes. Policy should encourage risk disclosure, require major intermediaries to maintain upgrade and response plans, and foster coordination across the ecosystem—rather than impose a single technical fix. The sustainability of cryptocurrencies will increasingly depend on their security infrastructure's ability to adapt to these accelerating technological pressures.

Foresight News22 min fa

Quantum Computing Approaches "Q-Day": How Encryption Policy, Investment Logic, and Risk Management Are Reshaping the Landscape

Foresight News22 min fa

Bitcoin's Five-Wave Adjustment Nears End, Opportunities Emerge in HYPE Support Zone | Invited Analysis

**Bitcoin's Five-Wave Adjustment Nears End, HYPE Support Zone Presents Opportunity | Guest Analysis** This week, Bitcoin (BTC) is in the final stage of a five-wave corrective structure. The formation of 'Endpoint 44' is key: a level above $58,110 suggests a high probability of a technical rebound, leading likely to wide-range consolidation. A break below $58,110 without bullish divergence warrants caution for further downside. Mid-term bearish positions are maintained at 20%, with 30% of capital reserved for short-term scalping opportunities based on predefined support/resistance levels and three scenario-based plans (A/B/C). Simultaneously, HYPE has entered the 55-56 segment of its own five-wave correction from its $76.94 high. If 'Endpoint 56' forms above the prior low (Endpoint 54), creating a double-bottom pattern, a rebound is significantly likely. A light long position (under 30% allocation) can be considered upon stabilization in the support zone. Last week's BTC short-term strategy, guided by proprietary quantitative models, successfully executed two short trades (1x leverage), yielding a total return of approximately 6.21%. The market move validated the prior weekly forecast of a retest towards the $59,100 support. **Core Trading Views Summary:** * **BTC:** Focus on the formation of 'Endpoint 44'. A scenario above $58,110 allows for tentative longs. Key resistances: $60,900-$62,300, ~$65,500, $67,300-$69,500. Key supports: ~$58,100, ~$55,000. * **HYPE:** Monitor the final position of 'Endpoint 56'. Key resistances: ~$65.5, ~$71.5. Key supports: ~$58.5, $52-$54 zone. Strategy favors buying on dips upon stabilization in support areas with confirmed model signals, with strict position control. **Risk Disclaimer:** Financial markets are volatile. All analysis, models, and strategies herein are based on personal technical analysis for journaling purposes only, not investment advice. Trade at your own risk.

Odaily星球日报36 min fa

Bitcoin's Five-Wave Adjustment Nears End, Opportunities Emerge in HYPE Support Zone | Invited Analysis

Odaily星球日报36 min fa

AI Sweeps the Globe, So Why Is Crypto + AI Facing Gloom?

The article "AI Sweeps the Globe, But Why Is Crypto + AI So Bleak?" analyzes the disconnect between the booming AI industry and the struggling crypto+AI sector. It argues the issue is not flawed logic but severe demand-supply mismatch across four key sub-sectors. Decentralized compute and storage projects offer theoretical benefits like cost savings and data sovereignty but lack a decisive technical edge over entrenched cloud providers (AWS, GCP). Enterprises are unwilling to risk migration for unproven infrastructure that can't guarantee the performance and reliability needed for critical AI workloads. ZKML and privacy solutions address important issues like model verification but solve non-urgent, long-term concerns for most businesses currently focused on core performance and ROI. Demand here is likely to be regulation-driven (e.g., EU AI Act) rather than organic. AI agent infrastructure is developing foundational tech for a future multi-agent economy. However, the current market phase is dominated by internal process automation within single companies, making this technology premature. AI agent payments is highlighted as the only sub-sector where blockchain competes on a level playing field with traditional finance, as neither has adequately solved the challenges of machine-to-machine micropayments and real-time settlement. Overall, crypto+AI projects are building for future needs (data ownership, decentralization, transparency) that don't align with the industry's immediate priorities (performance, cost, stability). The absence of a flagship, large-scale use case further hinders mainstream adoption and capital inflow. The path forward requires either adapting to current market demands or patiently building the foundational infrastructure for the next phase of AI.

marsbit48 min fa

AI Sweeps the Globe, So Why Is Crypto + AI Facing Gloom?

marsbit48 min fa

"King of Pump Calls" Arthur Hayes Strikes Again, This Time Targeting Deribit

On June 29, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes purchased approximately 6.16 million SYN tokens via OTC platform Flowdesk for around $2.2 million. Hayes subsequently declared on X that SYN represents one of the most asymmetric investments he has seen since HYPE, stating it's time for an options DEX to challenge the dominant platform Deribit, and identifying Hypercall as that challenger. SYN's price surged over 40% following his comments, with a tenfold increase in June 2026 alone, bringing its FDV to roughly $110 million. The article details Synapse Protocol's evolution from a cross-chain messaging and liquidity network into the chain-based options trading protocol Hypercall. Hypercall, built on the Hyperliquid ecosystem's HyperEVM, aims to be a universal options exchange supporting any asset size with capped loss (limited to premium paid) and no forced liquidations. Deribit, established in 2016, remains the centralized leader in crypto options with an estimated 85% market share in BTC and ETH options and $3.588 billion in assets. Its strengths include deep liquidity and professional tools, but it faces criticisms over custody risk, KYC requirements, and regulatory uncertainty. The analysis positions Hypercall not as an immediate replacement for Deribit's entrenched network effects, but as a potential complementary and differentiated competitor, particularly for DeFi-native assets and new asset classes like RWA. The article concludes by noting Hayes's recent mixed "call" record, including fully exiting and later re-buying HYPE, and the controversial price target for CARDS from his family office Maelstrom, which was followed by a significant price drop.

marsbit1 h fa

"King of Pump Calls" Arthur Hayes Strikes Again, This Time Targeting Deribit

marsbit1 h fa

Trading

Spot
活动图片