Индикатор указал на начало фазы «экстремальной» волатильности биткоина

cryptonews.ruPubblicato 2025-01-10Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-09-11

Историческое отклонение индикатора предупредило о резких движениях на крипторынке.

Макроданные и действия ФРС по-прежнему удерживают основное внимание инвесторов.

Полосы Боллинджера (BB) на месячном графике первой криптовалюты достигли самого низкого уровня за всю историю, указывая на «экстремальную» волатильность. На это обратил внимание теханалитик Мэтью Хайланд.

Источник: X.

BB — индикатор волатильности, который применяют для определения минимумов и максимумов цен. Нахождение показателя возле верхней линии указывает на перекупленность, возле нижней — на перепроданность.

Аномальное положение метрики также заметили другие участники рынка.

The Bollinger Bands on the 1M (monthly) are at historical tightness. This has previously led to heavy volatility to the upside (see chart).

Bitcoin could be in for a spicy Q4 🐂🫡 pic.twitter.com/sOmeLIYPgT
— 👑Crypto Caesar👑™️ (@crypto_caesar1) September 6, 2025

«Ранее [падение индикатора до минимумов] приводило к высокой волатильности. Биткоин может ожидать бурного ралли в IV квартале», — отметил трейдер под ником Crypto Caesar.

Инвестор Яннис Андреу добавил, что все предыдущие сокращения Полос Боллинджера в 2012, 2016, 2020 годах предшествовали «взрывному росту цены» первой криптовалюты.

«Текущая ситуация еще более сжата, что указывает на потенциал самого большого движения в истории биткоина. Направление не гарантировано, но тенденции свидетельствуют о продолжении тренда», — подчеркнул эксперт.

По его мнению, в ближайшие несколько месяцев цифровое золото продемонстрирует крупное движение — прорыв к новым максимумам или «шокирующий» разворот.

За пределами технических графиков

Несмотря на исторический слом Полос Боллинджера, основное внимание крипторынка по-прежнему приковано к макроданным США и действиям ФРС на заседании 17 сентября.

Эксперты очертили динамику рынка до и после заседания ФРС

10 сентября в Соединенных Штатах вышли отрицательные данные по проминфляции, который обеспечили возвращение биткоина к $114 000. 11 сентября ожидается публикация индекса потребительских цен.

Позитивные показатели, вероятнее всего, склонят Федрезерв к уменьшению ключевой ставки. Согласно CME FedWatch Tool, участники рынка оценивают вероятность этого события в 100% — мнения разделились касательно величины снижения.

Источник: CME FedWatch Tool.

92% предполагают снижение на 25 б.п., а 8% — на 50 б.п.

«Если произойдет [сокращение на 50 пунктов], криптовалюта взлетит выше предыдущих максимумов», — написал пользователь под ником Mister Crypto.

Однако CEO Goldman Sachs Дэвид Соломон крайне низко оценивает вероятность такого значительного уменьшения показателя.

«Я почти уверен, что США снизят ставку на 25 базисных пунктов. Если взглянуть на рынок труда, то нет никаких сомнений в том, что можно заметить некоторое смягчение», — уточнил он.

Соломон ожидает потенциально еще двух снижений ставки в этом году в зависимости от макроэкономической ситуации.

Напомним, аналитики Santiment спрогнозировали отскок биткоина на фоне роста медвежьих настроений.

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