关于 VINE 是不是会被替换为「Imagine 」的几个逻辑

深潮Pubblicato 2025-08-03Pubblicato ultima volta 2025-08-04

除非作为商业主体的 X 明确表示要给重启后的 Vine 及相应代币 $VINE 相应的赋能，否则市场预期的估值和价格增长以及情绪预期都存在投机性风险。

撰文：Haotian

关于 $VINE 是不是会被替换为「Imagine」，谈几点逻辑：

1） $VINE 自始至终都是一个 MEME，它承载的是市场对于原先被关掉的 Vine 短视频平台能否被顺利重启的期许，所以只要 @elonmusk 和 @rus 二者之一没有明确表示放弃 Vine 的重启计划之前，VINE 就会一直存在；

2）Grok Imagine 最近被 Elon 高频推送和提及并不能代表 Imagine 要取代 VINE，即时 Elon 说了 Grok Imagine 就是 AI Vine，因为 Imagine 是一个产品分支功能，就好比 Grok 是 X 的 AI 模块一样，Imagine 也只是 Grok 的一个图片转视频的功能模块，Elon 高调推 Grok Imagine 只是为了凸显 Grok 的 AI 增强能力，并不等于要用 Imagine 来给 Vine 重新命名，至少老马没「明确」表态过；

3）「Bring back Vine」不仅是一个口号，背后更蕴含着复杂的文化、情感、品牌、IP 等等多种复杂的因素，这就意味着 Vine 是一个有特殊意义的文化符号，承载着一代人的互联网记忆，这种情感价值很难被替代。在此语境下，在看来 Elon 所说以 AI 形式来重启 Vine，其最终目标就是重启 Vine，Grok imagine 只是达成这个终极目标之前的一次核心产品能力展示。换句话说，若没有重启 Vine 的想法，大可不必提 Vine，用 AI 形式的目标不也是重启吗；

4）之所以一直强调 Grok Imagine 就是 AI Vine，只是为了表达一点，Vine 会以 AI 赋能的形式「加速」回归。别忘了，Vine 短视频平台的内核就是 6s 的视频，若 imagine 能够像 Elon 所说以实时渲染的能力直接把图转化成 6s 短视频，这绝对会是 Vine 重启后的核心卖点，大概率是 Imagine 作为创作工具，Vine 作为社交分发平台的形式共存，这一点 Rus 给出的「both」的回复也可以作证；

5）市场对于 $VINE 的预期一直来自 Vine 会不会真的被重启，Rus 能否在 X 担任要职，尤其是 Vine 的 logo 被整合展示在 X 的内容界面，甚至 VINE 会不会作为打赏货币流通于 Vine 等等。但请务必注意，截至目前 MEME 承载的只能是一种文化情感归属，除非作为商业主体的 X 明确表示要给重启后的 Vine 及相应代币 $VINE 相应的赋能，否则市场预期的估值和价格增长以及情绪预期都存在投机性风险；

Note：MEME 市场波动性比较大，投资买卖请一定注意风险，以上分析仅供参考。

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