SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240426):宏观数据超出预期

Odaily星球日报Pubblicato 2024-04-26Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-04-26

Introduzione

近期 BTC 和美股的相关性得到强化,币价在美盘开盘阶段一度下探至63000下方,吸引到BTC次周59000-P和60000-P大量买单成交。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240426):宏观数据超出预期

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240426):宏观数据超出预期

昨日(25 APR)美国第一季度 GDP 大幅低于预期,同时 PCE 物价指数大幅反弹录得 3.7% ,预示着今晚公布的 PCE 通胀指数大概率将高于市场之前的预测。经济产出疲软加上物价上涨,对风险情绪造成打击,三大指数应声下跌,对利率政策敏感的两年期美债收益率一度跳涨至 5.016% ,日内逐渐回落到 5.0% 下方。美联储古尔斯比称,在一系列高于预期的通胀数据之后,美联储必须“重新调整”,“必须等待并观察”。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240426):宏观数据超出预期

Source: TradingView

数字货币方面,近期 BTC 和美股的相关性得到强化,币价在美盘开盘阶段一度下探至 63000 下方,吸引到 BTC 次周 59000-P 和 60000-P 大量买单成交。大宗方面,BTC 成交分布向远期转移,买卖 OTM CallSpread 和几组三角价差策略表现出对上行空间的博弈;ETH 多为看涨期权买入,并分布在 17 MAY 24 和 28 JUN 24 0.25 Delta 附近的行权价上。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240426):宏观数据超出预期

Source: Deribit (截至 26 APR 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240426):宏观数据超出预期

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240426):宏观数据超出预期

Data Source: Deribit, ETH 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240426):宏观数据超出预期

Data Source: Deribit,BTC 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240426):宏观数据超出预期

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240426):宏观数据超出预期

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240426):宏观数据超出预期

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The Real Battlefield of AI Lies in the 'Dark Forest'

The article "AI's Real Battlefield is in the 'Dark Forest'" discusses the shifting dynamics in the global AI landscape, contrasting the strategic directions of Chinese and U.S. AI developers. Chinese companies like Alibaba (with its "HappyHorse" video model), ByteDance (Seedance 2.0), and Kuaishou (Kling 3.0) have taken the lead in text-to-video generation, surpassing OpenAI’s now-discontinued Sora. These models are deeply integrated into their parent companies’ content ecosystems (e.g., Douyin, Kuaishou), serving to reduce content creation costs and enhance user engagement rather than operating as standalone profit centers. In contrast, U.S. firms are pivoting toward high-stakes enterprise and security applications. Anthropic’s Claude Mythos model demonstrates advanced capabilities in autonomously discovering and exploiting software vulnerabilities, prompting concern at the highest levels of U.S. financial and governmental institutions. OpenAI responded with its own GPT-5.4-Cyber, signaling a strategic shift from consumer-facing products to enterprise-grade tools focused on cybersecurity and programming. The divergence is attributed to fundamental differences in resources and market structures. U.S. companies, backed by vast computational resources (e.g., Amazon and Google supply Anthropic with substantial funding and TPU access), can pursue deep, specialized R&D in high-value B2B sectors. Chinese firms, facing significant compute power constraints and a less mature enterprise SaaS market, have found success by leveraging their massive consumer platforms and optimizing for cost-efficiency. The article warns that the AI race is entering a "dark forest" phase—a reference to competitive dynamics where cybersecurity capabilities could determine digital sovereignty. While Chinese models like Zhipu AI’s GLM-5.1 show promise in narrowing the gap in coding proficiency, the author stresses that achieving parity in security-critical AI will require asymmetric strategies, including greater investment in coding models, adaptation to domestic hardware, and exploring international markets in the Global South.

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The Real Battlefield of AI Lies in the 'Dark Forest'

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