“投机”就对了?比特币实际用途几乎已无人提起!

jin10Pubblicato 2024-03-27Pubblicato ultima volta 2024-03-27

如今,如果你听听比特币最著名的投资者的话,会发现他们现在几乎很少吹捧这一世界上最大的加密货币在现实世界中的用途。

就在不久之前,比特币爱好者还坚持认为,比特币将有无数的用处,例如跨境支付、去中心化金融和区块链技术的潜力,这将使它成为传统金融体系的替代品。

但到今天,这些言论基本上不再被提及,而市场在2024年看涨比特币的理由很简单:供应将低于需求。除了将比特币用作投资工具之外,几乎没有人讨论比特币的价值来自其他方面。

包括MicroStrategy的Michael Saylor和SkyBridge Capital的Anthony Scaramucci在内的一些最著名的比特币看涨者都曾表示,他们的计划只是永远持有比特币。

3月22日,斯卡拉穆奇在纽约举行的比特币投资者日上表示,他建议持有比特币的客户“什么都不要做”

Saylor的公司拥有所有流通比特币的1%,他同样表示,他的意图是抢购尽可能多的比特币,并永远持有。

Saylor最近在接受采访时表示,“我们认为比特币是最高形式的财产,是世界上最顶级的财产,也是最好的投资资产。所以最终目标是获得更多的比特币。谁得到的比特币最多,谁就赢了。没有别的结局了。”

比特币的主要用途是投机?

自比特币诞生以来,怀疑论者一直质疑它的用途。

即使作为一种通胀对冲工具,比特币并没有显示出太大的抗通胀能力。2022年,当美联储提高利率以遏制自上世纪70年代以来最严重的一轮通货膨胀时,其贬值了60%。

作为一种支付方式,比特币今天几乎没有任何主流的使用记录。CoinDesk的一份报告称,比特币区块链的链上交易量已经达到最低,这表明除了持有,没有人在做任何事情。

稳定币Tether的联合创始人William Quigley表示,使用比特币进行交易速度缓慢,价格昂贵,就消费者支付系统而言,还有更好的替代品。抛开看涨因素不谈,比特币最终并没有成为日常交易的流行选择。

Quigley说,“我听到的最常见的批评是,它没有用处,是纸上谈兵。大多数情况下,我会说‘罪名成立’,但这些对我来说都不重要。”

Quigley认为,投资者想要交易比特币的原因与他们想要交易期货合约之类的东西的原因没有太大区别。他说,交易比特币的关键是根据市场情绪进行交易,并从价格差异中获利。

这位Tether联合创始人表示,“人们对情绪变化的猜测主导了加密货币市场。从交易者的角度来看,比特币的用途是试图通过人们的情绪变动来赚钱。”

主流市场的接受可能不可逆转

在上周五的比特币投资者日上,虽然一些人提出了比特币可以对冲通胀或失控的政府债务的想法,但除了作为一种投资之外,几乎没有人谈论比特币的用途

Unicoin首席执行官Alex Konanykhin表示,比特币曾一度是货币发展史上“巨大的”创新,因为它将区块链推上了风口浪尖。但他认为,作为先行者,并不意味着其不会被淘汰。

Konanykhin说,“我的观点并不是说比特币毫无价值,而是在它存在的15年里,它已经过时了。”

公平地说,对比特币的投资理论盖过了对现实世界用途的讨论,这并不奇怪。

比特币去年上涨了150%,2024年上涨了58%。今年1月,美国证交会批准了11只现货比特币ETF后,需求飙升,专家表示,主流市场的接受似乎不可逆转

加上现货比特币ETF推动的强劲需求,今年的减半事件和供应冲击将进一步支撑比特币的长期价格前景,并使任何有关比特币效用的讨论黯然失色。Quigley说:

“如果你从投资者的角度来看,对比特币用途的批评可能并不重要。”

Letture associate

Black Tuesday in Japanese and Korean Stock Markets: South Korea Triggers Circuit Breaker, Nikkei Plummets, AI Boom Undergoes Phased Adjustment

"Black Tuesday" for Asian Markets: Korean Stocks Halted by Circuit Breaker, Nikkei Plunges as AI Rally Undergoes Correction Asian stock markets experienced severe turbulence on Tuesday, with South Korea's benchmark KOSPI index plummeting nearly 10% after triggering a market-wide trading halt when its losses exceeded 8%. Japan's Nikkei 225 index also fell sharply by approximately 3.5%, ending an eight-day winning streak. The sell-off was heavily concentrated in the technology and semiconductor sectors, with giants like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix leading the declines. The plunge reflected a rapid reversal from recent highs, with the KOSPI having retreated over 12% from its mid-June peak. Analysts attribute the sharp correction to multiple converging factors. The direct trigger was weakness in U.S. tech stocks, which fueled profit-taking in overbought Asian markets. Furthermore, stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain or even raise interest rates, putting pressure on rate-sensitive growth stocks. Structural vulnerabilities also played a role, particularly in South Korea, where the market is highly concentrated in a few semiconductor heavyweights, making it susceptible to shifts in global AI demand and foreign capital outflows. Despite the short-term volatility, the long-term narrative for AI and semiconductors remains intact. Industry forecasts still point to massive growth in global AI capital expenditure over the coming years. South Korean firms like SK Hynix maintain a dominant position in critical segments like High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), with long-term orders secured well into 2027. While near-term fluctuations are expected to continue, driven by U.S. monetary policy signals and upcoming corporate earnings, the current correction may present a buying opportunity for quality assets tied to the enduring AI infrastructure build-out.

marsbit8 min fa

Black Tuesday in Japanese and Korean Stock Markets: South Korea Triggers Circuit Breaker, Nikkei Plummets, AI Boom Undergoes Phased Adjustment

marsbit8 min fa

'Black Tuesday' for Japanese and Korean Stock Markets: Korean Market Triggers Circuit Breaker, Nikkei Plunges, AI Frenzy Undergoes a Phased Adjustment

"Black Tuesday" for Japanese and South Korean Stock Markets: KOSPI Triggers Circuit Breaker, Nikkei Plunges as AI Rally Undergoes Correction Asian stock markets experienced severe volatility. South Korea's KOSPI index plunged over 8% intraday, triggering a 20-minute market-wide trading halt, and closed nearly 10% lower, marking its third-largest single-day drop this year. Japan's Nikkei 225 fell approximately 3.5%, ending an eight-session winning streak. The tech and semiconductor sectors led the decline, with heavyweights like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix suffering double-digit losses, fueled by foreign investor selling and panic. The sell-off stemmed from multiple factors. A weak prior session for U.S. tech stocks, especially the "Magnificent Seven," raised concerns about AI's profitability timeline. Intense profit-taking followed massive year-to-date gains (KOSPI up over 80%, Nikkei hitting record highs). Hawkish signals from the Fed, suggesting potential rate hikes due to strong U.S. data, pressured rate-sensitive growth stocks. Structural vulnerabilities, like the high concentration of semiconductor giants in the KOSPI, amplified the drop, with foreign capital outflows exacerbating the move. Short-term volatility is expected to persist, contingent on U.S. market stability and Fed policy. However, the long-term AI narrative remains robust. Forecasts predict trillions in global AI capital expenditure through 2031. South Korea's leading position in critical areas like HBM memory, with major players' order books filled into 2027, provides fundamental support. This correction may represent a shift from speculative frenzy to a focus on tangible AI infrastructure, offering a potential entry point for long-term investors.

Odaily星球日报9 min fa

'Black Tuesday' for Japanese and Korean Stock Markets: Korean Market Triggers Circuit Breaker, Nikkei Plunges, AI Frenzy Undergoes a Phased Adjustment

Odaily星球日报9 min fa

Report Review: Kyber Delay Tear NVIDIA Supply Chain, Only a Few Winners in the PCB Chain

Research Report Analysis: Kyber's Delay Reshapes NVIDIA Supply Chain, Winners Limited in PCB Sector Jefferies maintained a Buy rating on NVIDIA with a $300 price target (42% upside), but delivered a surprising take on the AI server PCB supply chain. The key finding is that the high-density orthogonal backplane PCB, codenamed "Kyber," is likely delayed to 2028 or even canceled. This prompts a downward revision in the global AI PCB market forecast for 2027/2028 by 5% and 11%, respectively, with CCL (copper-clad laminate) forecasts cut by 8% and 16%. While Kyber's postponement extends the lifecycle of the current Oberon architecture and defers some PCB volume, it does not halt the trend towards higher specifications. Migration to advanced materials like M9/M10-grade CCL and PTFE processes continues. The delay reshuffles the winners' list: upstream material suppliers (glass fabric, CCL) benefit from persistent tight supply and strong pricing power. Copper cable vendors gain a reprieve as the threat from PCB-based interconnects recedes. PCB manufacturers, however, face intensified competition, with mid-tier players most vulnerable to being squeezed out. The report stresses that the market adjustment reflects a timing shift, not a demand destruction. Kyber-related orders are deferred, not canceled. NVIDIA's core GPU competitiveness and the AI server growth trajectory remain intact. The analyst's investment thesis prioritizes "high-value-add" and "supply-constrained" segments: upstream materials > NVIDIA > copper cables > downstream PCB manufacturing. The delay accelerates a consolidation within the PCB industry, favoring companies positioned in high-end specifications and critical upstream materials.

marsbit13 min fa

Report Review: Kyber Delay Tear NVIDIA Supply Chain, Only a Few Winners in the PCB Chain

marsbit13 min fa

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片