BitMEX Report Highlights Crypto Perpetual Swaps in 2025: The Year the Engine Broke and Rebuilt

TheNewsCryptoDipublikasikan tanggal 2026-01-09Terakhir diperbarui pada 2026-01-09

Abstrak

The 2025 crypto derivatives market experienced a transformative crisis that exposed critical flaws in perpetual swaps, long considered the market's backbone. A pivotal October liquidation cascade erased $20 billion in positions as Auto-Deleveraging mechanisms failed, forcing market makers' hedged positions to close and triggering a systemic liquidity withdrawal. This event shattered trust in centralized exchanges, particularly those operating opaque B-Book models against users. Simultaneously, easy yield from funding rate arbitrage vanished due to overcrowded institutional strategies, pushing rates below traditional risk-free returns. Decentralized perpetual exchanges gained popularity but introduced new vulnerabilities, including oracle manipulation and governance gaps. Innovation emerged through equity perpetuals for 24/7 stock trading and tradable funding rate instruments. The market concluded the year leaner and more mature, prioritizing platform resilience, transparency, and fairness over leverage and speculative yield.

Few years have tested the crypto derivatives market like 2025. What once felt like a stable, yield-rich playground for professional traders turned into a proving ground where flawed infrastructure, fragile incentives, and misplaced trust were brutally exposed. Perpetual swaps, long regarded as the backbone of crypto derivatives, entered the year with confidence and exited it transformed as mentioned in a recent report by BitMEX.

For much of the previous cycle, perpetuals delivered predictable returns. Funding rate arbitrage was reliable, liquidation engines were assumed to be robust, and exchanges marketed themselves as neutral market operators. That illusion shattered in October. The 10–11 October crash was not simply another volatility spike; it was a structural failure that revealed how vulnerable the market had become beneath the surface.

Yet markets are adaptive systems. As weak models collapsed, space opened for more resilient platforms and genuinely new ideas. 2025 did not end the perpetual swap market. It forced it to evolve.

The ADL Meltdown: When Protection Became the Weapon

The most defining event of the year was the October liquidation cascade, which erased nearly $20 billion in positions within hours. While price movements captured headlines, the deeper damage occurred in the plumbing of the system itself.

Auto-Deleveraging, designed as a safety mechanism, turned destructive. Professional market makers running delta-neutral strategies found their short perpetual hedges forcibly closed to cover bankrupt long positions elsewhere. These positions were never supposed to be touched. When they were, “neutral” strategies instantly became directional bets in a collapsing market.

What followed was systemic. Market makers, suddenly exposed and burned by exchange engines, withdrew liquidity en masse. Order books thinned to levels not seen since the depths of 2022. The promise that exchanges could safely intermediate risk was broken, and trust evaporated almost overnight.

This was not a retail liquidation event. It was a market maker massacre, and it fundamentally altered risk assumptions across the industry.

The Death of Easy Yield

Funding rate arbitrage did not explode in 2025. It suffocated. What began as a clever strategy became overcrowded at institutional scale. Exchange-issued delta-neutral products and synthetic margin assets flooded the market with automatic short exposure. Every dollar minted into these instruments sold perpetuals by design, overwhelming organic demand.

As a result, funding rates collapsed. For the first time during a bullish cycle, rates consistently traded below historical baselines. By mid-year, yields hovered near 4 percent annualized, often failing to outperform traditional risk-free instruments like Treasury bills.

The lesson was simple. Once yield is productized and scaled, it disappears. Passive strategies no longer generated meaningful returns, and traders were forced to move up the complexity curve or accept mediocrity.

A Crisis of Trust in Centralized Exchanges

2025 also drew a clear line between two types of exchanges. On one side were fair matchers that facilitated peer-to-peer trading. On the other were opaque platforms operating internal B-Book models, effectively betting against their own users.

As volatility increased, reports surfaced of profitable traders having positions voided under vague “abnormal trading” clauses. In several cases, exchanges simply refused to pay out gains when trades went against the house.

Low-float perpetual listings further exposed this imbalance. Coordinated entities manipulated thin markets, squeezing open interest and exploiting structural weaknesses that favored insiders. For many traders, it became painfully clear that execution quality and platform integrity mattered more than leverage or token listings. Where you traded became just as important as what you traded.

Perpetual DEXs: Innovation with New Fault Lines

Decentralized perpetual exchanges surged in popularity during 2025, fueled by transparency and high performance. But decentralization brought new attack surfaces.

One of the year’s most notable vulnerabilities involved pre-token markets without reliable price oracles. Attackers manipulated illiquid prices to trigger on-chain liquidations, exploiting the fact that every position and liquidation threshold was publicly visible. Transparency, once considered a strength, became a tactical liability.

In another high-profile incident, an options mispricing was exploited through standard arbitrage. Instead of honoring the trade, the platform froze funds and reversed profits, exposing governance and accountability gaps in decentralized systems.

The takeaway was nuanced. Decentralization reduced some risks but introduced others. Without mature risk controls and accountability frameworks, transparency alone was not enough.

New Directions: Equity Perps and Funding Rate Trading

As traditional strategies failed, innovation accelerated. Two themes emerged as defining narratives for the next phase of derivatives.

First, equity perpetuals found genuine demand. Traders wanted 24/7 access to U.S. stocks and indices, especially around earnings and macro events. Crypto exchanges quietly became alternative venues for global equity speculation, untethered from legacy market hours.

Second, funding rates themselves became tradable instruments. Rather than farming yield passively, traders began speculating on funding volatility, positioning for spikes, compressions, and structural dislocations. Funding transformed from a background mechanic into a primary market variable. These shifts signaled maturity. The market was no longer chasing easy yield. It was pricing complexity.

A More Grounded Market Emerges

By the end of 2025, the crypto perpetual swaps market looked very different. The era of effortless arbitrage had closed. Structural weaknesses had been exposed, and trust had become a competitive advantage rather than a marketing slogan.

Exchanges that survived did so by proving fairness, resilience, and accountability under stress. Meanwhile, new products bridged crypto and traditional finance in ways that felt less speculative and more inevitable.

2025 was not just a difficult year. It was a necessary one. The excesses were burned away, the machinery was stress-tested, and the market emerged leaner, sharper, and far less forgiving. Only platforms built to endure volatility, not profit from it, are positioned to lead what comes next.

TagsAltcoinBlockchainCryptocurrency

Pertanyaan Terkait

QWhat was the main event that exposed the structural weaknesses in the crypto perpetual swaps market in 2025, according to the BitMEX report?

AThe main event was the October liquidation cascade, which erased nearly $20 billion in positions within hours and revealed the destructive failure of the Auto-Deleveraging (ADL) mechanism.

QHow did the role of funding rates change in the perpetual swaps market during 2025?

AFunding rates collapsed and consistently traded below historical baselines, often failing to outperform traditional risk-free instruments. They transformed from a source of passive yield into a tradable instrument, with traders speculating on their volatility.

QWhat new type of perpetual contract gained significant traction in 2025, and why?

AEquity perpetuals gained genuine demand as traders sought 24/7 access to U.S. stocks and indices, especially around earnings and macro events, making crypto exchanges alternative venues for global equity speculation.

QWhat critical flaw did decentralized perpetual exchanges (DEXs) expose despite their popularity?

ADecentralized perpetual exchanges exposed new vulnerabilities, such as attackers manipulating illiquid pre-token markets without reliable oracles to trigger on-chain liquidations, turning transparency into a tactical liability.

QHow did the October 2025 crisis fundamentally alter the risk assumptions and competitive landscape for crypto exchanges?

AThe crisis shifted trust to become a competitive advantage, favoring exchanges that demonstrated fairness, resilience, and accountability. It ended the era of effortless arbitrage and forced the market to prioritize platform integrity over leverage or token listings.

Bacaan Terkait

Berbicara dengan Analis Makro: AI Menyedot Semua Likuiditas di Saham AS, $40,000 Baru Lantai Dasar Bitcoin?

Wawancara dengan analis makro Luke Groman membahas pandangannya yang suram tentang pasar keuangan global. Menurutnya, pasar saham AS yang tampak kuat sebenarnya hanya didorong oleh segelintir saham AI, yang menyedot seluruh likuiditas dan mengorbankan aset lain seperti Bitcoin. Bitcoin, yang dianggapnya sebagai "alarm asap likuiditas" terakhir, sedang memberi sinyal bahaya. Groman menjelaskan bahwa valuasi tinggi perusahaan AI didukung oleh trik akuntansi yang mendorong laba dilaporkan ke depan, sementara arus kas memburuk. Dia memprediksi saham akan naik dalam dolar AS, tetapi turun jika diukur dalam emas atau Bitcoin. Dia juga menyoroti dominasi China atas pasokan dan pemrosesan logam tanah jarang, yang menjadi fondasi teknologi global. Mengenai perang Iran, dia terkejut dengan kemampuan Iran menutup Selat Hormuz begitu lama, yang berpotensi memicu resesi stagflasi global jika stok minyak habis. Dia mencatat lonjakan ekspor emas "non-moneter" dari AS ke China, menunjukkan pergeseran ke sistem penyelesaian perdagangan berbasis emas atau aset nyata seperti Bitcoin dalam dunia yang penuh ketidakpercayaan. Groman, menyebut diri seorang realis, merujuk data sejarah bahwa 58 negara dengan rasio utang terhadap PDB di atas 130% semuanya mengalami gagal bayar, kebanyakan melalui inflasi tinggi. Dia mempertanyakan narasi bahwa AI tidak akan menghancurkan lapangan kerja, sementara valuasinya sangat tinggi. Secara teknis, dia melihat kemungkinan Bitcoin mencapai dasar di kisaran $40.000 pada kuartal ketiga atau keempat.

marsbit55m yang lalu

Berbicara dengan Analis Makro: AI Menyedot Semua Likuiditas di Saham AS, $40,000 Baru Lantai Dasar Bitcoin?

marsbit55m yang lalu

Broadcom vs AMD, Mana yang Paling Layak Dipertaruhkan sebagai Saham Chip AI setelah Nvidia?

**Broadcom vs AMD: Saham Chip AI Mana yang Lebih Layak Dipertaruhkan Setelah Nvidia?** Pasar chip AI diperkirakan melesat menjadi $333 miliar pada 2030, menciptakan peluang besar di luar Nvidia. Dua pesaing utama adalah Broadcom (AVGO) dan AMD. AMD mengambil jalur yang lebih sulit dengan bersaing langsung melawan Nvidia di chip AI tujuan umum (GPU). Meski berhasil meningkatkan pendapatan data center dan mendapatkan pesanan dari Meta, mereka menghadapi tantangan besar dari ekosistem perangkat lunak CUDA milik Nvidia yang sudah sangat mapan. Di sisi lain, Broadcom memilih strategi berbeda dengan mengembangkan chip khusus (XPU) yang disesuaikan dengan beban kerja AI masing-masing pelanggan besar seperti Anthropic, Google, Meta, dan OpenAI. Pendekatan ini menawarkan efisiensi yang lebih tinggi dan hubungan yang lebih erat dengan pelanggan, terutama karena permintaan komputasi bergeser dari pelatihan (training) ke inferensi. Meskipun saham Broadcom terjual habis setelah laporan kuartal II karena panduan pendapatan AI kuartal III yang lebih rendah dari harapan, CEO Hock Tan menegaskan kembali target jangka panjang pendapatan chip AI tahunan sebesar $100 miliar pada tahun fiskal 2027. Dengan pendapatan AI kuartal II sebesar $10,8 miliar, masih ada ruang pertumbuhan yang signifikan. Kesimpulannya, meskipun saham Broadcom dinilai lebih mahal (premium) daripada AMD berdasarkan rasio harga terhadap penjualan (P/S), analis percaya premi tersebut wajar. Broadcom dilihat memiliki posisi kompetitif yang lebih kuat berkat strategi chip kustomnya dan portofolio klien AI elit, menjadikannya pilihan yang lebih menarik untuk investasi jangka panjang dalam ruang chip AI.

marsbit1j yang lalu

Broadcom vs AMD, Mana yang Paling Layak Dipertaruhkan sebagai Saham Chip AI setelah Nvidia?

marsbit1j yang lalu

Trading

Spot
Futures
活动图片