[Key interpretation] BTC pretends to rise or be verified, and deviates from eth price first

HuobiDipublikasikan tanggal 2022-09-13Terakhir diperbarui pada 2022-09-14

Abstrak

Although the BTC price has a strong performance, it is suspected that it will induce more people to rise. Recently, we have paid attention to the negative impact of the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase.

1. BTC releases the strongest trading volume

After the BTC price recovered and rebounded from the adjustment, the price easily reached above the middle rail of the brin line, rebounding from $18799 to around $22400, with a range increase of 19.2%. From the performance of trading volume, the effect of this 7 trading days is obviously better than the performance of the past 2 months, and it is also the largest average trading volume performance in the past year. Therefore, the week before the Federal Reserve raised interest rates on September 22, BTC is showing stronger rebound expectations. The recent BTC growth space depends more on the position that the trading volume can reach. The overall market will rebound in large quantities to reduce the selling pressure, and the impact of short-term selling pressure changes on the market is very important.

2. BTC medium and short-term investors' profit flight

The profit flight of BTC's medium - and short-term investors shows that investors are facing the opportunity of reducing their positions. The SOPR index has been running above 0 since September 9, which indicates that investors have made profits as a whole. During BTC trading, the nature of trading is profit flight. In the next trading day, with the increase of BTC rebound space, expected profit trading will still dominate the overall market. Therefore, when judging the market trend, the higher the SOPR index can reach, the greater the short-term selling pressure it will prompt. Referring to the SOPR index that can be reached in the past year, when the index is in the range of 1.05 to 1.1, it can effectively test the effectiveness of selling points.

3. The unrecognized loss of BTC decreased significantly

With the emergence of the rebound trend, the unconfirmed loss scale of BTC has dropped significantly, from the recent high of 0.507 on September 6 to around 0.353, and the loss scale has decreased by 15.4 percentage points. This shows that after the rebound trend of BTC in the past week, a considerable number of loss making orders have disappeared, which means that the selling pressure is also dropping rapidly.

In terms of absolute value, the proportion of unconfirmed losses on September 12 still reached 35.5%, which is still at a high level compared with the past two years. Therefore, BTC is still in the interpretation of digesting selling pressure, and we can pay further attention to the pressure level in the rebound.

4. Eth price rebounded slightly

With the volatile trend of eth, the recent overall increase has not exceeded expectations. It can be seen that the ETH price trend shows a certain deviation from BTC, which indicates that the strength of the overall market may not last too long. In terms of trading volume, the daily K-line trading volume of eth is still shrinking, so the increase is not ideal. However, considering the large growth space of eth in the previous period, the advantage in terms of cumulative growth is still significant.

5. Eth transfer volume rebounded slightly

During the recent eth rebound, the number of transferred eth rebounded slightly, but it did not exceed the previous peak. From the rebound strength, it reached 3.773 million on September 6, lower than 4.857 million eth on July 21, and lower than 8.156 million and 7.569 million eth on May 12 and June 13. Therefore, the ETH price is still in a stable operation stage. The trading enthusiasm of investors has not changed, and the expectation of increase has not been strengthened.

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Kondisi Pembayaran di Amerika Latin Tak Sesuai dengan yang Anda Bayangkan

**Ringkasan: Kondisi Pembayaran di Amerika Latin Berbeda dari Bayangan Anda** Penulis menghabiskan hampir sebulan di Amerika Latin, melakukan riset lapangan selama 500 jam dan berbicara dengan lebih dari 100 pengguna lokal serta regulator. Temuannya mengejutkan dan berbeda dari narasi umum. 1. **Kartu Kripto**: Volume transaksi sebenarnya berasal dari profesional bergaji tinggi yang menerima gaji dalam dolar AS atau stablecoin (seperti USDT), lalu mengonversinya ke mata uang lokal via Pix (Brazil), bukan dari transaksi ritel kecil seperti membeli kopi. 2. **Dominasi QR Code**: Pembayaran QR sedang menguasai pasar pembayaran negara berkembang. Di Brasil, Pix memproses >60 miliar transaksi/bulan. Peta global menunjukkan negara berpenduduk padat (China, India, Brasil, dll) didominasi QR, sementara negara kaya (AS, Eropa Barat) masih bertahan dengan kartu. 3. **Peluang Besar**: Interoperabilitas internasional antar sistem pembayaran instan lokal (seperti Pix, UPI, CoDi) masih terpecah-pecah. Ini adalah peluang besar yang belum terbangun. 4. **Persaingan Bergeser**: Persaingan bukan lagi sekadar akuisisi pengguna, tetapi memperebutkan infrastruktur penyelesaian (settlement). Perusahaan pembayaran terkemuka mulai mengakuisisi bank untuk efisiensi biaya dan kepatuhan. 5. **Amerika Latin Bukan Satu Pasar**: Setiap negara (Brasil, Argentina, Meksiko, dll) memiliki dinamika mata uang, regulasi, dan pola ekonomi informal yang sangat berbeda. Memperlakukan mereka sebagai satu kesatuan adalah kesalahan. 6. **Neobank Beralih ke Valas**: Bisnis stablecoin untuk transfer lintas batas semakin kompetitif dengan margin yang menyusut cepat, mendorong perusahaan untuk menjadikannya produk pintu masuk ke layanan lain. 7. **Ekspansi Lintas Batas adalah Kunci**: Startup pembayaran generasi berikutnya perlu memiliki identitas merek dan teknologi yang dapat diskalakan secara internasional sejak hari pertama, bukan hanya fokus mendalam di satu koridor. 8. **Brasil & Meksiko Sudah Jenuh**: Koridor yang kurang diperhatikan seperti "Lima Negara yang Terlupakan" (Republik Dominika, Guatemala, Honduras, Nikaragua, El Salvador) justru menerima arus remitansi besar dengan kompetisi yang jauh lebih rendah. 9. **Segmentasi Pasar yang Tepat**: Misalnya di Brasil, setidaknya ada 5 segmen pengguna dengan aliran dana dan kebutuhan berbeda (turis, ekspatriat, digital nomad, pengguna dompet digital muda, pengguna kripto asli). Strategi pemasaran harus disesuaikan. 10. **Regulasi Lebih Maju**: Bertentangan dengan persepsi, regulator Amerika Latin (Brasil, Meksiko, Kolombia, dll) seringkali lebih progresif dan jelas dalam mengatur aset kripto dan pembayaran digital dibandingkan AS. Kerangka regulasi seringkali sudah ada. Penutup: Peluang sebenarnya bukan hanya pada saluran konversi mata uang/stablecoin, tetapi pada layanan nilai tambah yang dibangun di atasnya.

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