Key Takeaways
Why are investors confident in Bitcoin now?
Lower KC Fed Policy Uncertainty and $2.5 billion ETF inflows suggest trust in the Fed’s direction and stronger crypto risk appetite.
What do BTC on-chain signals reveal?
Binary CDD near 1 indicated that long-term holders were selling strategically as institutions accumulate, suggesting an early-stage accumulation phase before broader rallies.
Bitcoin [BTC] remains a risk asset that continues to act as a haven for investors during periods of economic uncertainty. Despite steady inflows, the asset traded near $122,000, up 0.57%, at press time, as steady inflows offset muted retail activity.
But could a stronger rally be next? AMBCrypto’s analysis suggests the probability remains high.
Economic uncertainty positions Bitcoin for a rally
Macroeconomic uncertainty in the U.S. market has positioned Bitcoin favorably for a potential rally.
This uncertainty is measured by the Kansas City Fed’s Policy Rate Uncertainty (KC PRU) index, which tracks short-term market uncertainty based on one-year interest rate forecasts.
The KC PRU has historically correlated closely with Bitcoin’s performance.
A decline in the index often signals reduced uncertainty, encouraging investors to allocate more capital to risk assets such as Bitcoin, the leading crypto asset with a $2 trillion market cap.
Source: Alphractal
In that context, data from Alphractal showed that previous periods of KC PRU decline, notably 2019–2021, coincided with strong BTC rallies. A similar setup has emerged between 2024 and early 2025, hinting at renewed upside momentum.
That macro backdrop aligns with on-chain accumulation trends.
Bitcoin accumulation on the rise
Bitcoin accumulation continued to strengthen, led by institutional investors.
Data from SoSoValue, which tracks ETF Inflows and Outflows, showed eight consecutive weekdays of inflows into Bitcoin totaling $2.5 billion.
The latest daily inflow reached $875 million, reflecting renewed conviction among large holders treating current prices as an accumulation zone.
Source: SoSoValue
Retail participation, on the other hand, has been more subdued.
According to CoinGlass, retail buyers added about $47 million worth of BTC during the same period. While smaller in scale, it still reflected a positive sentiment that aligned with the broader market tone.
Long-term holders maintain steady control
Broader accumulation strength is confirmed by the Accumulation/Distribution indicator, which climbed to 12.57 billion in volume, as of writing, marking strong capital retention.
To gauge whether investors are likely to hold or sell, we examined the Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric. A reading of 1 suggests long-term holders are selling, while 0 indicates they are holding.
Source: CryptoQuant
Although the CDD primarily measures long-term holder activity, its influence often extends to the broader market. Sustained holding can boost confidence, while increased selling tends to trigger caution. However, there are nuances to note.
At press time, the metric hovered near 1, suggesting that long-term holders were selling their positions, yet institutions and retail were buying. This simply reflects stronger investor confidence, convinced of the potential upside in Bitcoin’s price.
