Key Takeaways
Orca wallets capture 52% of TRON USDT flows, signaling liquidity preparation. Spot outflows and bearish Funding Rates hint at short squeeze potential.
Orca wallets surged to dominate TRON’s [TRX] USDT activity, capturing 52% of flows on the 4th of September, a record high.
This exceeded the previous 45% peak in August, which was followed by an 8% Bitcoin [BTC] rally. Historically, such behavior is tied to liquidity shifts into exchanges, often preceding market expansions.
TRON’s deep reliance on USDT makes this data even more relevant. TRX traded at $0.338 at press time, after recent consolidation.
With mid-tier wallets driving liquidity, analysts see a potential setup for broader market positioning that could trigger TRX strength in the coming sessions.
Can TRX break past $0.37?
TRX’s daily chart showed a clear cup-and-handle pattern at the time of writing, a setup often linked to bullish continuation.
The neckline aligned with a confluence resistance zone between $0.356 and $0.37, creating a critical breakout barrier.
Price action has also formed a falling wedge, a technical structure that frequently resolves upward when demand increases.
Importantly, RSI rested near 46, hovering at neutral territory and suggesting momentum could expand.
Therefore, bulls must reclaim the neckline for confirmation, as this would open the path toward Fibonacci levels around $0.39 and potentially $0.42.
Source: TradingView
Quiet accumulation before the next move
Exchange flows added weight to the technical picture. TRX recorded nearly $10 million in net outflows on the 4th of September, reinforcing a trend of steady accumulation.
These patterns surface when investors move assets into cold storage, reducing immediate sell pressure. It aligns with earlier wallet activity, which hinted at liquidity preparation.
Spot market behavior reflected confidence despite price hesitation, as consistent outflows often precede periods of upward volatility.
If accumulation sustains, TRX could gain stronger buy-side backing, giving bulls an edge heading into critical resistance zones.
Source: CoinGlass
TRX: Short squeeze potential?
Derivatives markets tell a different story. At press time, TRX’s OI-Weighted Funding Rate dipped negative, signaling that short traders have gained dominance.
While this implies bearish positioning, it also creates conditions for a squeeze if buying accelerates.
Therefore, bears may find themselves exposed should spot accumulation and technical structures align.
Historically, negative funding paired with strong spot flows has triggered swift upside moves, driven by forced short covering.
Consequently, the current derivatives tilt may amplify volatility, with TRX price highly sensitive to breakout confirmation above $0.37.
Source: CoinGlass
Is TRX preparing for a decisive breakout?
Orca wallet dominance, persistent spot outflows, and a bullish chart structure all point to a strong setup. Although derivatives lean bearish, this tilt could fuel a short squeeze if spot demand holds.
Therefore, TRX appears to be preparing for a decisive test of $0.37, and a successful breakout may open doors to higher Fibonacci targets.
