The market is currently at a critical turning point. Multiple independent technical indicators are gradually pointing to the same conclusion: the Bitcoin bear market that began in October 2025 may be nearing its end, or may have already concluded. Unlike the prolonged and repeatedly bottom-testing bear market of 2022, this cycle has seen significant changes in market structure. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the phased alleviation of regulatory uncertainty have created an environment lacking "excessive passive sell-offs" during the price decline. Furthermore, historical experience shows that Bitcoin rarely enters a one-way rally without undergoing consolidation; the current phase is more likely a "consolidation stage following bottom confirmation."
In this context, the reference value of a single indicator is limited. However, when multiple signals begin to appear simultaneously, the conclusion they point to is becoming clearer: the market is gradually transitioning from a downward trend to a phase of confirming a turning point.
Technical Signals Converge: From Bottoming Patterns to Trend Recovery
From a technical structure perspective, the most critical change in this market is the "signal resonance." Firstly, the weekly Stochastic oscillator has moved back above 20. This pattern typically appears after the worst phase of the market and has historically corresponded more often with bottom formation rather than a continuation of the decline. Simultaneously, a new trend signal has appeared again. Having triggered twice before without fulfillment, its reference value is now significantly enhanced.
Secondly, the Bitcoin price is gradually approaching the 21-week moving average (approximately $77,592), a level long regarded as a key reference line distinguishing bull and bear cycles. The current price is oscillating around $75,000, and a reclaim of this level seems more a matter of time. A decisive break and hold above it would constitute a clear trend confirmation signal.
Additionally, the monthly RSI also shows potential to move back above its average. Historically, this signal has often appeared near bear market bottom areas. If it materializes again in this cycle, it would further strengthen the judgment that the market has completed its bottom building. Overall, while these indicators hold limited meaning when appearing alone, their concentrated emergence within the same time window suggests the market state has shifted from "continuation of the downtrend" to "gradual establishment of a bottom structure."
Key Price Range Confirmation: From Consolidation to Preparation for Upside
Beyond technical indicators, the price itself remains the core validation variable. The market is currently testing the key range of $66,000–$73,000. The high of approximately $73,084 reached in March 2024 has formed a medium-term top structure. If the price can effectively break out and stabilize above this range, it would mean the previous downtrend has been substantially reversed.
Structurally, the current price action shares some similarities with that of a year ago: the market experienced a rapid decline due to external shocks, followed by narrow-range consolidation, ultimately completing the trend shift through an upward breakout. The price has now begun testing the upper bound of the range. If this rhythm continues, a near-term probe towards $88,000 or even higher would not be considered aggressive. Meanwhile, the level of $64,972 below has become an important support level for the current phase. As long as the price holds above this level, the overall trend will gradually shift from neutral to bullish. Therefore, rather than judging whether the market has "already entered a bull market," the more critical question is: can the price complete the range breakout, thereby confirming the trend switch?
Currently, five signals are gradually pointing in the same direction: the weekly Stochastic strengthening, the trend signal reappearing, the price approaching the 21-week MA, the potential confirmation of the monthly RSI, and the effective break of the previous downtrend. A single signal is still insufficient for a definitive conclusion, but when these signals appear concentrated in the same phase, the credibility of the conclusion they point to increases significantly. Overall, the bear market that began in October 2025 may be nearing its end.
For the market, the focus is also shifting: the question is no longer whether Bitcoin will continue to recover, but rather, once the trend truly switches, how the speed and extent of the upside will unfold. In this process, the breakout of price ranges and changes in the liquidity environment will become the most critical variables to observe in the next phase.
Some of the views above are from BIT on Target. Contact us to get the full BIT on Target report.
Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading digital assets can be extremely risky and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
