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CFTC Proposes New Rules for Prediction Markets, Redefining Which Events and Who Can Participate

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has proposed new rules to establish a regulatory framework for prediction markets, aiming to define which event contracts can be traded and who can participate. The 267-page proposal seeks to amend regulations to create a structured review process for "event contracts." The core goal is to determine whether contracts involving sensitive topics like terrorism, assassination, war, or illegal activities are contrary to the "public interest." The CFTC's approach is not an outright ban but a case-by-case assessment, focusing on whether a contract predicts harmful acts themselves or merely their commercial or risk-related impacts. The proposal suggests that most mainstream sports prediction markets—based on final scores, winners, or season outcomes—may be permissible as they provide price discovery and informational value. However, markets on easily manipulated granular events (e.g., player injuries, specific referee calls) or those encouraging harm/cheating would face stricter scrutiny. A primary regulatory target is insider trading and market manipulation, where individuals with non-public knowledge or influence over an event's outcome could unfairly profit. Recent alleged incidents involving military personnel, former politicians, and corporate insiders highlight this risk. The move clarifies federal oversight but does not end the debate. State regulators and gambling associations argue that many prediction markets, especially on sports, constitute gambling and should fall under state, not federal, jurisdiction. This sets up a potential conflict over regulatory authority. Overall, the CFTC's proposal signals a shift for prediction markets from rapid, less-regulated expansion toward a more institutionalized, rules-based model resembling traditional financial markets. Growth will increasingly depend on demonstrating market fairness, transparent settlement, and controlled risks.

Odaily星球日报Hace 5 min(s)

CFTC Proposes New Rules for Prediction Markets, Redefining Which Events and Who Can Participate

Odaily星球日报Hace 5 min(s)

The Most Effective Betting Apps of 2026

Betting apps have become highly popular for their convenience. In 2026, several leading apps offer user-friendly interfaces, extensive sports markets, and innovative features. Top apps include Bet365 for its wide betting options and live streaming; William Hill for reliability and competitive odds; DraftKings for a seamless experience; and FanDuel for dynamic features like live betting. Key features to look for are diverse sports markets, competitive odds, live streaming, in-play betting, secure payments, an intuitive design, and strong customer support. The future promises further innovations like virtual reality experiences and personalized recommendations. The best apps of 2026 combine ease of use, a wide market selection, and reliable support for an enjoyable betting experience. Always remember to gamble responsibly.

TheNewsCryptoHace 9 hora(s)

The Most Effective Betting Apps of 2026

TheNewsCryptoHace 9 hora(s)

La Liga Team Bets $1 Million Against Themselves Before Match: Does Using Prediction Markets for Insurance Comply with Sports Regulations?

A Spanish La Liga club, reportedly Osasuna, purchased insurance against relegation and was linked to a transaction of over $1 million on the prediction market platform Kalshi, betting against its own victory in a crucial season-ending match. While Osasuna confirmed buying €1.2 million insurance for a potential €6 million payout in case of relegation through broker Howden, it did not confirm involvement with Kalshi. The reported trade involved intermediaries like Game Point Capital and Greenlight Commodities, with quant firm Susquehanna as the counterparty. This incident highlights the blurring line between financial hedging and gambling in prediction markets. Such markets allow trading on future event outcomes, like sports results. In the US, Kalshi operates as a regulated event contract market under the CFTC. However, Spanish authorities recently initiated penalties against Kalshi and Polymarket, considering their activities unlicensed gambling. The case raises core questions about prediction markets: who can trade, how insider information is handled, and whether participants can influence outcomes, especially in sports where results are human-driven. While leagues like La Liga and Serie A have partnered with Polymarket in North America, the regulatory clash and potential for conflicts of interest, as seen in this club's alleged transaction, present significant challenges as prediction markets evolve toward institutional risk management.

Foresight NewsAyer 10:19

La Liga Team Bets $1 Million Against Themselves Before Match: Does Using Prediction Markets for Insurance Comply with Sports Regulations?

Foresight NewsAyer 10:19

From Madison Square Garden to Kalshi: Prediction Markets Break into the NBA Finals

From Madison Square Garden to Kalshi: Prediction Markets Break into the NBA Finals Prediction markets are playing a significant role in the 2026 NBA Finals, particularly around the New York Knicks' unexpected 2-0 series lead. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have seen massive trading volumes, exceeding hundreds of millions of dollars on championship and related markets. Their influence extends beyond online trading. Kalshi's official partnership with Madison Square Garden has given it prominent physical branding at the arena. Furthermore, local businesses like The Jeffrey bar are using prediction market contracts to hedge the risk of game-result-based promotions, turning potential losses into manageable costs—a concept similar to the famous "Mattress Mack" strategy from traditional sports betting. These markets differentiate themselves by offering a wider, more entertainment-focused range of "event contracts" beyond typical game outcomes, such as predicting celebrity attendance. They also have broader accessibility across the U.S. compared to age- and location-restricted traditional sportsbooks. However, their rapid integration into sports raises regulatory and ethical questions. The NBA is cautiously engaging, discussing integrity frameworks with regulators like the CFTC. While the league permits minor investments like Giannis Antetokounmpo's stake in Kalshi, it advocates for strict rules to prevent insider trading. Many fans express concern on platforms like Reddit, fearing that the close ties between prediction markets, the league, and players could compromise the game's integrity. The NBA Finals has thus become a high-stakes testing ground, showcasing prediction markets' commercial potential while challenging traditional boundaries between financial trading, entertainment, and gambling.

marsbit06/06 23:30

From Madison Square Garden to Kalshi: Prediction Markets Break into the NBA Finals

marsbit06/06 23:30

Premu Opens User-Created, Leveraged Prediction Markets Ahead of the 2026 World Cup

Premu, a decentralized prediction market platform, is launching user-created prediction markets ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Unlike centralized platforms, Premu allows any participant to create a yes-or-no market on tournament outcomes—like which team advances or wins a match—by posting a USDC bond. Market creators earn a fee on every trade. Positions can be traded with up to 2.5x leverage, with settlement in USDC on Ethereum, Arbitrum, and Base networks. The feature aims to keep pace with fast-moving event demand. Premu supports markets beyond sports, including crypto, politics, and rapid 5-minute price direction markets. The platform is globally accessible via its web application.

TheNewsCrypto06/04 14:51

Premu Opens User-Created, Leveraged Prediction Markets Ahead of the 2026 World Cup

TheNewsCrypto06/04 14:51

Trading Volume Soars 80-Fold: How Kalshi is Reshaping the Sports Prediction Market

Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market platform, has experienced explosive growth, with monthly trading volume surging 80x to $14.4 billion by March 2026. Sports markets drive this expansion, representing 68% of total activity. Analysis shows Kalshi's prices are highly efficient, with pre-game probabilities deviating only 5.5% from actual outcomes. While its peer-to-peer exchange model offers advantages over traditional sportsbooks—including nationwide availability and no betting limits—Kalshi faces challenges with higher effective fees (2.8-4.2%) and limited in-play liquidity. The platform's $22 billion valuation reflects its positioning as an exchange rather than a bookmaker, but maintaining this premium requires improving liquidity depth and managing competition from rivals like Polymarket and potential entrants from traditional sports betting.

marsbit04/19 06:26

Trading Volume Soars 80-Fold: How Kalshi is Reshaping the Sports Prediction Market

marsbit04/19 06:26

Design, Development, Legal, Sports... Polymarket Launches 'Full-Stack' Talent Grab

Polymarket, a leading prediction market platform, is aggressively expanding its team across multiple domains following competitor Kalshi's recent $22 billion valuation funding round. Key hires and strategic acquisitions are central to its growth strategy. Design remains a priority, with the design lead actively recruiting to strengthen the platform's distinctive blue-and-white branding. Engineering recruitment is also intensive, highlighted by the acquisition of API platform Dome, whose co-founders joined Polymarket, and the hiring of a former Aave engineering VP. Multiple senior engineering roles are currently open. For its US platform, Polymarket is bolstering legal and compliance expertise, adding a former RBC Capital Markets veteran as Legal Counsel. In a significant move, it hired a former Fanatics CBO to lead sports business development, which sparked a non-compete lawsuit from Fanatics, revealing complex industry entanglements. Further hires include a former Coinbase institutional product lead to handle institutional liquidity sales, a marketing head from MrBeast's team, and a Citadel veteran for exchange upgrades. Polymarket is also recruiting for HR and a Head of Markets, indicating the talent competition in the prediction market space is far from over.

Odaily星球日报04/15 12:34

Design, Development, Legal, Sports... Polymarket Launches 'Full-Stack' Talent Grab

Odaily星球日报04/15 12:34

From 'Scientist' to 'Prophet': How Did OpenClaw Help Him Earn $100,000 in 10 Days?

This article features an interview with Kevin, a trader who used OpenClaw to turn $30,000 into over $100,000 in just 10 days on the prediction market platform Polymarket. Originally an ERP architect and later a developer of sports betting systems, Kevin entered the crypto space in 2018. He made his first significant profit during the 2023 "inscription summer" with ORDI. In summer 2025, he shifted to Polymarket, attracted by its improved liquidity and user experience. Initially, he used automated arbitrage strategies between betting odds, doubling his initial $100,000 investment. Since late February, he integrated OpenClaw into his strategy. While 60% of his funds still run automated arbitrage, 40% are now managed with OpenClaw-assisted subjective betting. OpenClaw helps by gathering and weighting factors like smart money movements, public sentiment, and team lineups—even uncovering new influencing factors. It also automates backtesting and execution. Kevin highlights Polymarket’s AI-friendly API as a key advantage. Currently, OpenClaw is experimenting mainly in sports betting with small automated bets (~$1,000). Kevin plans to develop and sell packaged OpenClaw "Skills" based on his strategy in the future.

比推03/16 13:13

From 'Scientist' to 'Prophet': How Did OpenClaw Help Him Earn $100,000 in 10 Days?

比推03/16 13:13

Earning $100,000 in 10 Days: An Interview with OpenClaw's Practical Experience in Prediction Markets

In an interview with Odaily Planet Daily, Kevin, a former ERP architect and Web3 investor, shares how he used OpenClaw to generate a profit of approximately $100,000 in just 10 days, turning a $30,000 investment into over $130,000 at its peak (currently around $112,000). Kevin began his crypto journey during the "inscription summer" of 2023, earning his first significant returns from ORDI. He later transitioned to prediction markets, specifically Polymarket, in mid-2025, attracted by its improved liquidity and user experience. Initially, he used self-developed algorithmic strategies for arbitrage, primarily in sports betting markets, doubling a $100,000 investment over several months. Since integrating OpenClaw in late February, Kevin adopted a hybrid approach: 60% of his strategy remains automated arbitrage, while 40% uses OpenClaw for predictive betting. OpenClaw helps gather and analyze factors like smart money movements, public sentiment, team lineups, and player conditions—even identifying new influencing variables. It also automates backtesting, strategy discovery, and execution, making it effective in Polymarket due to its AI-friendly API. While currently focused on sports markets with limited automated capital ($1,000 per test account), Kevin plans to expand into other domains and may later offer paid OpenClaw "Skills" based on his methodology.

Odaily星球日报03/16 06:25

Earning $100,000 in 10 Days: An Interview with OpenClaw's Practical Experience in Prediction Markets

Odaily星球日报03/16 06:25

How Much Money Has Kalshi Actually Made? Deconstructing the Prediction Market Business Behind 200 Million Trades

In this analysis of Kalshi, a leading prediction market platform, the author examines its business model, transaction data, and regulatory landscape. By accessing Kalshi’s public API, the study reveals that the platform has processed over 203 million transactions with a total volume exceeding $41.7 billion. More than 82% of this volume comes from sports betting, positioning Kalshi as a de facto sports gambling platform accessible to users as young as 18. The platform operates a central limit order book (CLOB) where users trade binary contracts that settle at either $1 (if the event occurs) or $0 (if it does not). Kalshi generates revenue through a variable fee structure: Takers pay a fee based on the formula 0.07 × C × P × (1-P), where C is the number of contracts and P is the price, while Makers pay a quarter of that rate. Total fee income amounts to $545.6 million. Kalshi ecosystem includes markets, events, and series, with major volumes driven by events like the 2024 U.S. presidential election and Super Bowl outcomes. The platform’s fee model is compared to traditional sportsbooks, highlighting how its variable structure adapts to implied probability. Regulatory oversight falls under the CFTC, though enforcement remains limited, creating a grey area that allows Kalshi to operate with fewer restrictions than conventional gambling platforms. The analysis also touches on market结算 practices, liquidity incentives, and the broader context of prediction markets, including competitors like Polymarket and regulatory cases such as PredictIt’s legal battle with the CFTC.

marsbit03/13 04:30

How Much Money Has Kalshi Actually Made? Deconstructing the Prediction Market Business Behind 200 Million Trades

marsbit03/13 04:30

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