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After UFO Files Released, Why Does Prediction Market Only Price Alien Existence Probability at 20%?

Following the official release of over 160 declassified UFO/UAP files by the U.S. Department of Defense, featuring videos, photos, and historical reports from NASA, FBI, and other agencies, public discussion has surged. However, the prediction market platform predict.fun shows measured skepticism. The probability for the event "Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?" remains at only 20%. This is because the market does not trade on the philosophical question of extraterrestrial existence, but specifically on whether the U.S. government will officially and explicitly acknowledge it by the end of 2026. While the document release increases transparency and provides compelling, unexplained cases—like a jellyfish-shaped object over the UAE or anomalies near Apollo missions—it presents historical data without official interpretation or confirmation. The market views this as expanding the pool of evidence rather than providing a definitive conclusion that would compel a governmental statement. The 20% probability reflects a time-discounted assessment, acknowledging potential for future disclosures while doubting a conclusive official acknowledgment within the tight deadline. Thus, the event highlights how prediction markets concretize abstract mysteries into tradable contracts based on verifiable outcomes and specific timelines.

marsbitHace 2 días 01:20

After UFO Files Released, Why Does Prediction Market Only Price Alien Existence Probability at 20%?

marsbitHace 2 días 01:20

After the UFO Files Are Made Public, Prediction Markets Only Price the Probability of Alien Existence at 20%?

The U.S. Department of Defense has launched a website declassifying UFO/UAP files, releasing an initial batch of over 160 documents. These include videos, photos, mission logs, sighting reports, and communications from agencies like NASA and the FBI, featuring unexplained incidents such as anomalous lights near Apollo missions and a "jellyfish"-shaped object over the UAE. Despite widespread public discussion, the prediction market predict.fun shows only a 20% probability that the U.S. government will officially confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology by December 31, 2026. The market's focus is not on whether aliens exist, but on whether U.S. authorities will make a definitive, binding statement before the deadline. Analysts note the file release provides transparency and fuels debate but does not constitute an official confirmation. The 20% odds reflect a time-discounted assessment, acknowledging the possibility of future evidence while doubting a conclusive governmental stance within the current year. This event highlights how prediction markets translate speculative narratives into tradable contracts based on verifiable outcomes and specific timelines.

Odaily星球日报Hace 2 días 01:14

After the UFO Files Are Made Public, Prediction Markets Only Price the Probability of Alien Existence at 20%?

Odaily星球日报Hace 2 días 01:14

Can You Make a Steady Profit by Blindly Following Polymarket's Pre-Game Win Probability to Bet on NBA Games?

The article investigates whether blindly betting on NBA teams with higher pre-game win probabilities on Polymarket guarantees profits. Backtesting data from the 2025-26 regular season (1,096 games) shows that a strategy of consistently betting $100 on the team with the higher pre-game probability resulted in a net loss of $2,054 (ROI: -1.87%), indicating that the market is efficient and prices are accurately set. Further analysis reveals that returns varied significantly by team. Certain teams, such as the Trail Blazers (POR, 19% ROI), 76ers (PHI, 14%), Spurs (SAS, 12%), Lakers (LAL, 11%), and Hornets (CHA, 9%), consistently outperformed market expectations when favored. In contrast, top-performing teams like the Celtics, Knicks, and Nugks had ROIs close to zero or negative, showing their probabilities were efficiently priced. The weakest teams showed extreme ROI variations but had insufficient sample sizes for reliable conclusions. The key takeaway is that blindly following pre-game probabilities is not a profitable strategy overall, but targeting specific teams may yield better results.

marsbit04/17 07:02

Can You Make a Steady Profit by Blindly Following Polymarket's Pre-Game Win Probability to Bet on NBA Games?

marsbit04/17 07:02

Can You Make a Steady Profit by Blindly Following Polymarket's Pre-Game Win Probability to Bet on NBA Games?

**Can You Consistently Profit by Blindly Following Pre-Game Win Probabilities on Polymarket for NBA Games?** A backtest of the entire NBA 2025-26 regular season (1,096 games) was conducted to test the strategy of always betting $100 on the team with the higher pre-game win probability on Polymarket. The results show that this strategy is not profitable. The total amount wagered was $109,600, with a return of $107,545.20, resulting in a net loss of $2,054 and a Return on Investment (ROI) of -1.87%. This indicates that the market is highly efficient, and pre-game probabilities are accurately priced, leaving no simple arbitrage opportunity. In fact, blindly following the market would have been slightly less profitable than betting against it. However, a deeper analysis by team revealed significant differences. Certain teams consistently outperformed market expectations when they were favored to win: * Portland Trail Blazers (POR): 19% ROI * Philadelphia 76ers (PHI): 14% ROI * San Antonio Spurs (SAS): 12% ROI * Los Angeles Lakers (LAL): 11% ROI * Charlotte Hornets (CHA): 9% ROI In contrast, the market was highly efficient for the top-performing teams, offering minimal returns (e.g., Boston Celtics ROI: 4%, Denver Nuggets ROI: -5%). Results for the weakest teams were too inconsistent due to small sample sizes. The key finding is that team-specific factors, rather than the probability percentage itself, drive potential value, making a one-size-fits-all strategy ineffective.

Odaily星球日报04/17 06:58

Can You Make a Steady Profit by Blindly Following Polymarket's Pre-Game Win Probability to Bet on NBA Games?

Odaily星球日报04/17 06:58

A Once-in-300-Years Event? Independent Solo Miner "Hits the Jackpot," Claims $220K Bitcoin Block Reward Alone

A solo Bitcoin miner with only 70 TH/s of hashrate has successfully mined block 944,306, earning the full 3.128 BTC block reward (approx. $222,000). This miner’s computing power represents just 0.000007% of the total network hashrate, making the probability of such an event roughly once every 300 years on average. The miner used CKpool’s solo mining service, which allows individual miners to work independently rather than in a pool, keeping the full reward minus a 2% fee. This is the 313th solo block mined via CKpool since 2014. Remarkably, this is the second such unlikely event within ten days, highlighting the lottery-like nature of solo mining—where small miners occasionally win big despite extremely low odds.

marsbit04/10 12:43

A Once-in-300-Years Event? Independent Solo Miner "Hits the Jackpot," Claims $220K Bitcoin Block Reward Alone

marsbit04/10 12:43

Oscars Preview: Who Are the Big Players in Prediction Markets Betting On?

"Oscar Predictions 2026: Where Are the Prediction Market Whales Placing Their Bets?" As the 98th Academy Awards approach on March 15, 2026, the crypto prediction market Polymarket is offering its own forecasts on the winners, with significant trading volume indicating where large bettors, or "whales," are placing their capital. In the high-stakes Best Picture category, "One Battle After Another" is the current frontrunner with a 76% probability, followed by "Sinners" at 20%. Analysis of top wallets shows one address holds a substantial "YES" position on this outcome with an 89.7% win rate. The Best Actor race has seen a major shift; Timothée Chalamet was previously the favorite with an 80% probability, but Michael B. Jordan has now surged ahead to a 57% chance. Notably, the top wallet betting "YES" on Jordan has a negative historical profit, while a major "NO" bettor on Chalamet has profited over $2.82 million. Several categories appear to be near-certain "sure bets" or "savings plans." Paul Thomas Anderson is the overwhelming favorite for Best Director with a 91% probability. For Best Actress, Jessie Buckley leads with a 97% chance. "Sinners" also dominates Best Original Screenplay with a 96% probability. Other closely watched categories include Best Supporting Actress, where Amy Madigan leads at 52%, and Best Supporting Actor, where Sean Penn is the favorite at 73%. "One Battle After Another" also leads in Best Cinematography with a 73% probability.

Odaily星球日报03/12 02:44

Oscars Preview: Who Are the Big Players in Prediction Markets Betting On?

Odaily星球日报03/12 02:44

Brad Garlinghouse says CLARITY Act could pass by April as Polymarket odds hit 85%

Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, has stated that the US CLARITY Act could pass as early as April, signaling potential regulatory clarity for digital assets. This optimism is reflected in prediction markets, with Polymarket traders assigning an 85% probability of the bill becoming law by 2026, a significant increase from 60% earlier this year. Garlinghouse and other industry leaders view the legislation as a crucial step toward resolving long-standing regulatory uncertainty, which they argue has disadvantaged US crypto firms. While some industry reservations remain about specific provisions, the rising market confidence suggests passage is increasingly seen as the base case. The act is viewed as a medium-term structural shift rather than an immediate market catalyst.

ambcrypto02/19 20:43

Brad Garlinghouse says CLARITY Act could pass by April as Polymarket odds hit 85%

ambcrypto02/19 20:43

High-Frequency Trading, $100K Annual Income: The Most 'Boring' Profit Myth on Polymarket

A user known as planktonXD (0x4ffe49ba2a4cae123536a8af4fda48faeb609f71) has generated over $106,000 in profit on Polymarket within a year by executing more than 61,000 predictions—averaging around 170 trades per day. This high-frequency, automated strategy focuses on exploiting small, certain opportunities rather than betting on high-risk, high-reward outcomes. The approach is characterized by market-making and micro-arbitrage: placing orders on both sides of the order book to capture spreads or profiting from mispriced options in low-liquidity markets. The largest single win was only $2,527, illustrating a disciplined, risk-managed method that avoids large drawdowns. The bot operates across diverse categories—sports, weather, crypto prices, politics—constantly scanning for pricing inefficiencies. Notable examples include buying heavily undervalued options in niche markets, such as esports matches or extreme crypto price movements, where probability is mispriced due to emotional trading or thin order books. For instance, a $16 bet on SOL falling to $130 (priced at 0.7¢, implying <1% chance) returned $1,574 during a volatile period. Key takeaways: The strategy highlights the power of compounding small gains, the necessity of automation and API tools, and the superiority of high-probability opportunities over high-risk bets. In prediction markets, the most advanced approach isn’t forecasting—it’s managing probability and liquidity.

marsbit02/11 13:06

High-Frequency Trading, $100K Annual Income: The Most 'Boring' Profit Myth on Polymarket

marsbit02/11 13:06

Making a Profit of $100,000 from 'Mosquito Meat' with 170 High-Frequency Trades per Day?

A quantitative trading bot, planktonXD, generated over $106,000 in profit on Polymarket within a year by executing more than 61,000 predictions—averaging 170 trades per day. Instead of betting on high-risk "black swan" events, it employed a high-frequency market-making and arbitrage strategy, focusing on small, consistent gains with minimal drawdowns. The bot capitalized on mispriced odds in low-liquidity markets—such as regional esports matches and crypto price predictions—by placing tiny bets on highly improbable outcomes that were statistically undervalued. For example, it achieved returns as high as 23,750% on a VALORANT match and 9,285% on a SOL price prediction by buying nearly worthless shares that surged during market panics or emotional mispricings. Key takeaways include the power of compounding small gains, the necessity of automated tools and API access, and the importance of probability management over high-risk bets. The strategy highlights that success in prediction markets lies not in forecasting outcomes, but in exploiting liquidity gaps and probabilistic edges.

比推02/11 12:36

Making a Profit of $100,000 from 'Mosquito Meat' with 170 High-Frequency Trades per Day?

比推02/11 12:36

Polymarket Arbitrage Panorama: Five Mainstream Strategies and Opportunities for Ordinary Players

Polymarket Arbitrage Overview: Five Main Strategies and Opportunities for Retail Users This article deconstructs the core arbitrage strategies on Polymarket, a prediction market platform, highlighting how professional traders systematically profit from pricing inefficiencies rather than simply betting on outcomes. Five primary arbitrage methods are identified: 1. **In-Platform "Risk-Free" Arbitrage:** Exploiting moments when the sum of YES and NO share prices for a binary event falls below $1, allowing traders to buy both and lock in a guaranteed profit upon settlement. This space is now highly competitive and dominated by bots. 2. **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** Capitalizing on price discrepancies for the same event across different prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket vs. Kalshi). 3. **Information Arbitrage ("Front-Running"):** Using faster data feeds (e.g., live sports streams, news) to place orders before the market updates. 4. **Negative Risk Arbitrage:** Hedging principal risk by strategically taking multiple NO positions in markets with several mutually exclusive outcomes, based on mathematical probability miscalculations. 5. **Market Making (Spread Capture):** Profiting from the bid-ask spread in new or illiquid markets by placing limit orders. The article reviews real-case studies of top traders, including: * A trader who profited using statistical analysis of Elon Musk's historical posting data. * A trader who manipulated the outcome of a low-liquidity, short-term market by moving the underlying asset's spot price. * High-frequency automated trading on microscopic pricing errors. * News-driven subjective trading on political and macro events. * "Reversion" trading, betting against market overconfidence right before event settlement. For retail users, the advice is to: 1. Avoid competing directly with automated bots in simple arbitrage. 2. "Copy trade" by analyzing top traders' on-chain activity and combining it with news research. 3. Take dynamic profits early when an edge is realized, rather than holding until settlement, to improve capital efficiency and avoid final outcome disputes. The conclusion emphasizes that sustained profitability in prediction markets comes from exploiting cognitive and pricing biases through disciplined strategy, not gambling on truth.

比推01/29 06:24

Polymarket Arbitrage Panorama: Five Mainstream Strategies and Opportunities for Ordinary Players

比推01/29 06:24

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