Based on prediction market data from Polymarket, the probability of the United States establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve by the end of 2025 has plummeted by 98%, falling to just 1% from a peak of 77% in March. This sharp decline follows former President Donald Trump's campaign promise and subsequent executive order to create a national Bitcoin reserve, which initially fueled market optimism.

The market for this event, titled "US National Bitcoin Reserve by 2025?", launched in January with an initial probability of 41%. Optimism surged to 77% after Trump signed the order and Congress began working to codify it into law. However, the failure to conduct a mandated audit of federal crypto holdings by an April 5th deadline, a crucial step for forming the reserve, has caused confidence to collapse.

By December 8th, the tokenized "Yes" bet for the reserve's creation in 2025 was trading at just $0.01, representing a 1% probability and a total market volume of $5.15 million. A parallel market for the creation of a reserve by 2027 has also been launched but sees minimal activity. This event has been one of the largest on Polymarket, a leading crypto prediction platform whose data is increasingly cited by major news outlets like Bloomberg.

<div class="article__text article__text_free" itemprop="articleBody">



<div class="article__text__overview">
<span>The probability of Donald Trump's pre-election promise to create a national bitcoin reserve by the end of the year is considered minimal by market participants</span>
</div>



<div class="article__main-image" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/ImageObject">
<div class="article__main-image__wrap">



<div><img style="max-width:100%;overflow:hidden;" src="https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2025-12/4f291bd570d04ba59a9d493291ce540d.jpeg" alt=""></div>
</div>
</div>




<p><em>"RBC-Crypto" does not provide investment advice, the material is published for informational purposes only. Cryptocurrency is a volatile asset that can lead to financial losses.</em></p>

<p>Bets on Polymarket for the appearance of a strategic U.S. crypto reserve in 2025 have fallen by 98% from their maximum. In March, after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to create a national bitcoin reserve, the probability of this event reached 77%, but today it has dropped to 1%.</p>

<p>The creation of a crypto reserve in the U.S. was one of Trump's pre-election promises, and market participants' attention was focused on it throughout the year. At the time of the creation of the prediction market "National Bitcoin Reserve in the U.S. in 2025?" in January, the probability of this event was estimated by traders at 41%.</p>




<div class="fox-tail" data-role="fox-tail" data-type="video" data-unit="native_video_in_text" style="">

<span class="banner__container__border">
<span class="banner__container__info"><span class="banner__container__color">rbc.group</span></span>
</span>

</div>


<div class="article__special_container">
<p><strong>Prediction markets</strong> in cryptocurrencies are platforms where people can bet on the outcome of future events using cryptocurrency. By buying a binary answer "yes" or "no," participants determine the market's assessment of the probability of an event occurring. For example, a "yes" token price of $0.20 with a "no" token at $0.80 corresponds to a 20% probability.</p>
</div>

<p>In March, after Trump signed the order and the U.S. Congress gathered to enshrine this order into law, optimism among Polymarket users grew to a maximum. According to their estimates, the chance of creating a reserve that year was then about 77%. That is, the tokenized "yes" bet could be bought or sold for $0.77 in cryptocurrency.</p>






<div class="thg 
js-thumb-slider-wrapper"><div class="thg__items-wrapper"><div class="thg__items swiper js-thumb-slider" data-slides-json="fromDOM"><div class="thg__items-list swiper-wrapper"><div class="thg__item swiper-slide swiper-slide-active"><picture class="thg__item__picture  smart-image"><source srcset="https://s0.rbk.ru/v6_top_pics/resized/800xH/media/img/4/66/347651932414664.webp 800w" type="image/webp" media="(max-width: 400px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2), (max-width: 400px) and (min-resolution: 192dpi)"></source><source srcset="https://s0.rbk.ru/v6_top_pics/resized/800xH/media/img/4/66/347651932414664.jpeg 800w" media="(max-width: 400px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2), (max-width: 400px) and (min-resolution: 192dpi)"></source><source srcset="https://s0.rbk.ru/v6_top_pics/resized/400xH/media/img/4/66/347651932414664.webp 400w" type="image/webp" media="(max-width: 400px)"></source><source srcset="https://s0.rbk.ru/v6_top_pics/resized/400xH/media/img/4/66/347651932414664.jpeg 400w" media="(max-width: 400px)"></source><source srcset="https://s0.rbk.ru/v6_top_pics/resized/900xH/media/img/4/66/347651932414664.webp 900w" type="image/webp" media="(-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.5), (min-resolution: 192dpi)"></source><source srcset="https://s0.rbk.ru/v6_top_pics/resized/900xH/media/img/4/66/347651932414664.jpeg 900w" media="(-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.5), (min-resolution: 192dpi)"></source><source srcset="https://s0.rbk.ru/v6_top_pics/resized/768xH/media/img/4/66/347651932414664.webp 768w" type="image/webp" media="(-webkit-min-dev极-ratio: 1.25), (min-resolution: 192dpi)"></source><source srcset="https://s0.rbk.ru/v6_top_pics/resized/768极H/media/img/4/66/347651932414664.jpeg 768w" media="(-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.25), (min-resolution: 192dpi)"></source><source srcset="https://s0.rbk.ru/v6_top_pics/resized/590xH/media/img/4/66/347651932414664.web极 590w" type="image/webp"></source><source srcset="https://s0.rbk.ru/v6_top_pics/resized/590xH/media/img/4/66/347651932414664.jpeg 590w"></source><source srcset="https://s0.rbk.ru/v6_top_pics/media/img/4/66/347651932414664.webp" type="image/webp"></source><div><img style="max-width:100%;overflow:hidden;" src="https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2025-12/02834992087f405396bca35f87e3e0aa.jpeg" alt=""></div></picture></div></div><div class="thg__btns"><div class="thg__btn js-thumb-slider-fullscreen"><span class="thg__icon thg__icon--fullscreen"></span></div></极></div></div><div class="thg__appendix swiper js-thumb-slider-appendix" data-slider-appendix="true"><div class="thg__appendix-list swiper-wrapper"><div class="thg__appendix-item swiper-slide swiper-slide-active"><div class="thg__appendix-item-inner"><div class="thg__appendix-item-scroll"><div class="thg__description" data-slide-description="true">Bets on the creation of a national bitcoin reserve in the U.S. in 2025 on March 20. Source: Polymarket</div></div></div></div></div></div></div>


<div class="article__special_container">
<p><strong>Telegram channel "RBC-Crypto"</strong> — subscribe and stay up to date with the most important and current news about cryptocurrency.</p>

<p>Join the <strong>"RBC-Crypto" forum</strong> on Telegram to discuss news and trends in the crypto world.</p>
</div>

<p>On April 5, an audit of federal agencies' cryptoassets, which were supposed to form the basis of the reserve, was scheduled in the U.S. In early fall, it became known that the audit had not yet been conducted.</p>






<div class="thg 
js-thumb-slider-wrapper"><div class="thg__items-wrapper"><div class="thg__items swiper js-thumb-slider" data-slides-json="fromDOM"><div class="极g__items-list swiper-wrapper"><div class="thg__item swiper-slide swiper-slide-active"><picture class="thg__item__picture  smart-image"><source srcset="https://s0.rbk.ru/v6_top_pics/resized/800xH/media/img/9/60/347651954862609.webp 800w" type="image/webp" media="(max-width: 400px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2), (max-width: 400px) and (min-resolution: 192dpi)"></source><source srcset="https://s0.rbk.ru/v6_top_pics/resized/800xH/media/img/9/60/347651954862609.jpeg 800w" media="(max-width: 400px) and (-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 2), (max-width: 400px) and (min-resolution: 192dpi)"></source><source srcset="https://s0.rbk.ru/v6_top_pics/resized/400xH/media/img/9/60/347651954862609.webp 400w" type="image/webp" media="(max-width: 400px)"></source><source srcset="https://s0.rbk.ru/v6_top_pics/resized/400xH/media/img/9/60/347651954862609.jpeg 400w" media="(max-width: 400px)"></source><source srcset="https://s0.rbk.ru/v6_top_pics/resized/900xH/media/img/9/60/347651954862609.webp 900w" type="image/webp" media="(-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.5), (min-resolution: 192dpi)"></source><source srcset="https://s0.rbk.ru/v6_top_pics/resized/900xH/media/img/9/60/347651954862609.jpeg 900w" media="(-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.5), (min-resolution: 192dpi)"></source><source srcset="https://s0.rbk.ru/v6_top_pics/resized/768xH/media/img/9/60/347651954862609.webp 768w" type="image/webp" media="(-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.25), (min-resolution: 192dpi)"></source><source srcset="https://s0.rbk.ru/v6_top_pics/resized/768xH/media/img/9/60/347651954862609.jpeg 768w" media="(-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.25), (min-resolution: 192dpi)"></source><source srcset="https://s0.rbk.ru/v6_top_pics/resized/590xH/media/img/9/60/347651954862609.webp 590w" type="image/webp"></source><source srcset="https://s0.rbk.ru/v6_top_pics/resized/590xH/media/img/9/60/347651954862609.jpeg 590w"></source><source srcset="https://s0.rbk.ru/v6_top_pics/media/img/9/60/347651954862609.webp" type="image/webp"></source><div><img style="max-width:100%;overflow:hidden;" src="https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2025-12/0a408b87ef6c413484dc94b96de35d64.jpeg" alt=""></div></picture></div></div><div class="thg__btns"><div class="thg__btn js-thumb-slider-fullscreen"><span class="thg__icon thg__icon--fullscreen"></span></div></div></div></div><div class="thg__appendix swiper js-thumb-slider-appendix" data-slider-appendix="true"><div class="thg__appendix-list swiper-wrapper"><div class="thg__appendix-item swiper-slide swiper-slide-active"><div class="thg__appendix-item-inner"><div class="thg__appendix-item-scroll"><div class="thg__description" data-slide-description="true">Bets on the creation of a national bitcoin reserve in the U.S. in 2025 on December 8. Source: Polymarket</div></div></div></div></div></div></div>


<p>By December 8, the volume of bets on the forecast for the crypto reserve reached $5.15 million. The chances of its creation this year are now estimated at 1% — the "yes" token costs only $0.01. It has fallen by 98% from its March maximum. A month ago, parallel bets "U.S. National Bitcoin Reserve by 2027?" were launched, but the volumes of this market are still minimal.</p>

<p>The success of Polymarket — the largest prediction platform by betting volume — in 2025 led to the emergence of many similar services. This market recorded an absolute maximum in transaction volume of $8.3 billion in November. The flagships of the market are already penetrating the information field: Kalshi data will be used by CNN, and Polymarket information is broadcast on Bloomberg.</p>

<p>Crypto exchange Bybit will focus on promoting the stablecoin USDC. What's the plan?</p>

<p>Bitcoin has entered a "sideways trend." What about other cryptocurrencies?</p>

<p>"Disillusionment phase." What will happen to cryptocurrencies this week?</p>


</div>

# Probability Related Articles

Polymarket: Odds of a U.S. Crypto Reserve in 2025 Plummet by 98%

Regulatory Policy

Industry News