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Building the Bright Path While Secretly Crossing Chencang: Is Walsh Paving the Way for a September "Rate Cut"?

The title "Building the Plank Road Openly While Secretly Crossing at Chencang: Is Walsh Paving the Way for a September 'Rate Cut'?" suggests Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Walsh's hawkish stance may be a deliberate smokescreen. Academy Securities analyst Peter Tchir argues in a report that markets, currently pricing a 75% chance of a September hike, are missing a potential path to a September rate cut that Walsh himself might be quietly preparing. Tchir posits that Walsh's hawkish rhetoric aims to suppress long-term yield risks (with the 10-year Treasury yield falling recently) while creating room for a narrative shift based on upcoming data. The potential political endgame, according to this view, could be rate cuts in September and October, ahead of the midterm elections. This hinges on a political logic where the Trump administration's preference for lower rates remains unchanged. A core part of Tchir's argument involves redefining inflation metrics. He contends the Fed under Walsh may deprioritize the PCE index, criticizing its lagging components like Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER). Instead, he points to alternative, more real-time indicators like the New Tenant Repeat Rent Index (NTRR) and the Truflation daily index, which shows core inflation around 1.45%. He suggests the Fed could shift its data narrative to justify policy easing. Furthermore, Tchir downplays AI-driven inflation fears. He argues that consumer price sensitivity, evidenced by negative market reactions to price hikes (e.g., Apple), contradicts persistent inflation narratives. He also separates AI/data center spending—which he sees as relatively rate-insensitive—from broader consumer affordability issues, implying rate hikes are misdirected. Based on this analysis, Tchir sees a re-pricing of rate cut expectations as likely, creating opportunities in short-duration Treasuries. He maintains a neutral-to-slightly-bullish view on the long end of the yield curve. For equities, he recommends a significant overweight in energy (especially global nuclear assets) and, within defense/security themes, an overweight in biotech/pharma versus an underweight in semiconductors, expressing caution on AI/data center valuations.

marsbit06/29 04:42

Building the Bright Path While Secretly Crossing Chencang: Is Walsh Paving the Way for a September "Rate Cut"?

marsbit06/29 04:42

Warsh's First Conundrum: Rate Cuts, Inflation, and a Fractured Fed

Walsh's First Dilemma: Rate Cuts, Inflation, and a Divided Fed Kevin Warsh officially assumed the Fed Chairmanship on May 15th, inheriting a central bank deeply divided over inflation. Contrary to market expectations of a dovish stance due to his appointment by President Trump, Warsh's historical record shows early and consistent hawkish concerns about inflation. The Fed he leads is fractured, with three FOMC members recently dissenting against even hinting at future rate cuts. The immediate challenge is surging inflation. While the Iran-related oil shock is a temporary factor, core CPI and services inflation are accelerating, showing signs of becoming entrenched—echoing the Fed's 2022 "transitory" misstep. Warsh faces the task of building consensus within a committee where several members believe policy may not be restrictive enough, especially if the neutral interest rate (r-star) is higher than currently estimated. Politically, Warsh is caught between Trump's desire for rate cuts and the economic reality of persistent price pressures. Any move perceived as bowing to political pressure could undermine Fed independence. Market implications are significant. Long-term Treasury yields (e.g., 30-year at 5.19%) could rise further, especially if the June FOMC statement hints at possible tightening. Tech stocks face continued valuation pressure from higher rates. The key variable is progress in Iran negotiations; a breakthrough before the June meeting could temporarily ease oil-driven inflation, but stubborn services inflation would remain. All eyes are on Warsh's first post-FOMC press conference on June 17th. His wording on inflation and policy will reveal how much the market has mispriced his stance and the Fed's likely path forward.

marsbit05/20 10:01

Warsh's First Conundrum: Rate Cuts, Inflation, and a Fractured Fed

marsbit05/20 10:01

Where Are Risk Assets Headed Amid the Bank of Japan's Gradual Hawkish Signals?

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% on December 19, 2025, marking its second hike since January and the highest rate since 1995. The unanimous decision was widely anticipated. Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the current rate remains below the neutral level and future adjustments will depend on economic data, wage growth, and inflation trends. Market reaction was muted: USD/JPY rose slightly to 156.06, the 30-year JGB yield edged up, the Nikkei 225 gained 1.5%, and Bitcoin surpassed $87,000. Strong core CPI growth of 3.0% in November and sustained wage increases supported the move. Analysts are divided on the timing of the next hike, with some expecting it in mid-2026. The end of ultra-loose policy may gradually reduce global yen carry trades, potentially increasing funding costs and pressuring risk assets like cryptocurrencies. While some fear a repeat of past post-hike crypto corrections (20-30% declines), others argue the hike was well-priced. The BOJ's planned ETF sales starting in early 2026 could further impact global liquidity.

marsbit12/22 01:33

Where Are Risk Assets Headed Amid the Bank of Japan's Gradual Hawkish Signals?

marsbit12/22 01:33

Powell: Weakening Employment, Inflation Still High, No One Talks About Rate Hikes Now

In his latest address, Federal Reserve Chair Powell highlighted a noticeable cooling in the U.S. labor market, marked by slower hiring and reduced layoffs, declining challenges in recruitment, and diminished household expectations for job opportunities. The unemployment rate has risen to approximately 4.4%, with employment gains significantly weaker than at the start of the year. This slowdown stems partly from reduced labor supply—due to decreased immigration and lower participation rates—but also reflects weakening labor demand itself. On inflation, core PCE remains at 2.8% year-on-year, above the long-term 2% target. While goods inflation has edged up due to tariffs, service inflation continues to moderate. Although overall inflation has declined substantially from its 2022 peak, it has not yet reached a level that fully assures the Fed. The FOMC responded by cutting rates by 25 basis points and initiating short-term Treasury purchases to maintain ample reserves and ensure effective policy transmission. Powell emphasized that, with rising employment risks and persistently elevated inflation, there is no "risk-free" policy path. The Fed must carefully balance its dual mandate constraints. He noted that interest rates are nearing a neutral range, and future policy decisions will be data-dependent, avoiding preset directions and instead being assessed meeting by meeting based on economic conditions and risks.

marsbit12/11 04:02

Powell: Weakening Employment, Inflation Still High, No One Talks About Rate Hikes Now

marsbit12/11 04:02

The Fed Faces Its Biggest Internal Divergence in Recent Years! Has Powell Stopped Being 'Hawkish' This Time?

The Federal Reserve faces its most significant internal division in recent years as Chair Jerome Powell navigates a deeply split FOMC ahead of a key policy meeting. While a 25-basis-point rate cut is widely expected, the challenge lies in post-meeting communication. Powell is likely to adopt a "hawkish cut" strategy—lowering rates while avoiding strong signals about future easing, particularly for January. He will emphasize data dependency and may signal that rates are approaching neutral to reassure hawkish members concerned about persistent inflation. The decision is complicated by a government shutdown delaying key economic data and external political pressure. Regardless of the outcome, high uncertainty and market volatility are expected to persist, with future policy moves contingent on labor market conditions and inflation data.

marsbit12/08 04:38

The Fed Faces Its Biggest Internal Divergence in Recent Years! Has Powell Stopped Being 'Hawkish' This Time?