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Want to Follow SpaceX? Data Shows 30 Star U.S. IPO Stocks Mostly Halve in First Year

"SpaceX is set for a historic IPO on June 12 under ticker SPCX, pricing at $135 per share to raise $75 billion at a valuation of about $1.75 trillion. However, data from Motley Fool on 30 high-profile tech IPOs since 2012 reveals a challenging pattern for new investors. Median returns were -9% after six and twelve months, with a median maximum drawdown of 54% in the first year. No company avoided a significant decline, including later successes like Meta and Palantir. Morningstar estimates SpaceX's fair value at only around $780 billion, less than half its IPO valuation. Despite SpaceX's dominant market share in U.S. rocket launches and a profitable Starlink subscriber base, its financials show a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025 and a trailing twelve-month revenue of $18.7 billion, resulting in a price-to-sales ratio exceeding 90. Analysts caution that while the IPO may see initial gains, historical trends suggest a high probability of substantial price declines and volatility in the following year."

marsbitHace 3 hora(s)

Want to Follow SpaceX? Data Shows 30 Star U.S. IPO Stocks Mostly Halve in First Year

marsbitHace 3 hora(s)

Bitcoin Pizza Day: A $41 Experiment Now Worth Billions

Sixteen years after software developer Laszlo Hanyecz paid 10,000 Bitcoins for two pizzas, the crypto community marked Bitcoin Pizza Day. That $41 experiment is now worth over $767 million, briefly hitting $1.2 billion at Bitcoin's peak. The 2010 transaction proved a decentralized digital asset could facilitate real commerce, a far cry from today's ambitions. The scale has grown dramatically, with nations like Iran announcing Bitcoin could be used to pay for critical shipping tolls, though on-chain evidence remains lacking. In the US, lawmakers push for Bitcoin reserves and tax exemptions. What began as a quirky purchase has ignited a global conversation on national reserves, international trade, and the future of money itself.

bitcoinist05/23 22:01

Bitcoin Pizza Day: A $41 Experiment Now Worth Billions

bitcoinist05/23 22:01

Bitcoin Pizza Day 16th Anniversary: 10,000 Bitcoins for Two Pizzas Then, Now Worth $780 Million

Sixteen years after the first Bitcoin pizza purchase, the event remains a pivotal moment in cryptocurrency history. In May 2010, programmer Laszlo Hanyecz offered 10,000 BTC on a small forum for two Papa John's pizzas. After four days, a user named Jeremy Sturdivant accepted, completing the first recorded real-world transaction using Bitcoin. Those 10,000 BTC, then worth about $41, are now valued at roughly $780 million. This transaction, recorded in Bitcoin block 57043, marked the asset's first price discovery and its move from a digital experiment to a medium of exchange. Hanyecz, an early developer who created GPU mining code, viewed it not as a loss but as a successful proof-of-concept. He repeated similar trades, spending tens of thousands of mined BTC on pizza throughout 2010. In 2018, Hanyecz commemorated the event by buying two pizzas again, this time for just 0.00649 BTC via the Lightning Network, demonstrating Bitcoin's potential for fast, low-cost microtransactions. Today, Bitcoin is a mainstream financial asset held by millions, with major institutions like MicroStrategy accumulating large treasuries and Wall Street offering Bitcoin ETFs. Yet, the "Pizza Day" story endures as a symbol of Bitcoin's origin—a simple exchange that welded digital code to tangible value, a connection that remains powerfully relevant.

marsbit05/22 09:14

Bitcoin Pizza Day 16th Anniversary: 10,000 Bitcoins for Two Pizzas Then, Now Worth $780 Million

marsbit05/22 09:14

From Pizza to Unit of Account: A Prehistory of Bitcoin Price Discovery

From Pizza to Unit of Account: The Prehistory of Bitcoin Price Discovery This article traces Bitcoin's earliest price discovery mechanisms, focusing on its functional evolution as a unit of account rather than its price trajectory. The analysis centers on a nine-month period from October 2009 to July 2010, identifying three distinct, sequential layers of price formation. The narrative begins with the cost-of-production anchor established by NewLibertyStandard in October 2009, which calculated a unilateral USD/BTC exchange rate based on the electricity cost of mining. This constituted a posted rate, not a market-discovered price. The second layer emerged with peer-to-peer (P2P) discovery mechanisms starting in March 2010. This included Dustin Dollar's Bitcoin Market platform, which introduced a basic public order book, and forum-based实物 trades. The pivotal event in this phase was Laszlo Hanyecz's purchase of two pizzas for 10,000 BTC on May 22, 2010. Critically, the offer was made exclusively in BTC ("10,000 bitcoins for a couple of pizzas"), marking the first documented instance where Bitcoin functionally acted as a unit of account to price another good in a real transaction, 21 days before Hanyecz later provided a USD anchor (~$25). The third layer commenced in July 2010 with Jed McCaleb's launch of the Mt.Gox exchange. Its continuous order book, with last price, highs, lows, and volume, provided the first standardized, externally referenceable format for BTC/USD prices. The article argues this three-stage evolution—production cost anchor → P2P discovery → centralized continuous quotation—exhibits structural similarities to the historical price discovery paths of other asset classes, such as 17th-century VOC shares in Amsterdam and 19th-century grain futures on the Chicago Board of Trade. It posits that all markets follow a coarse-grained path from private bookkeeping to posted quotes to continuous matching, placing Bitcoin's early development within a centuries-long lineage of financial institutional evolution.

marsbit05/19 00:02

From Pizza to Unit of Account: A Prehistory of Bitcoin Price Discovery

marsbit05/19 00:02

Borrowing Money from a Hundred Years Later, Building Incomprehensible AI

Tech giants like Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are undergoing a radical financial transformation due to AI. Their traditional "light-asset, high-free-cash-flow" model is being dismantled by staggering capital expenditures on AI infrastructure—data centers, GPUs, and power. Combined 2026 guidance exceeds $700 billion, a 4.5x increase from 2022, causing free cash flow to plummet (e.g., Amazon's fell 95%). To fund this, they are borrowing unprecedented sums through long-dated, multi-currency bonds (e.g., Alphabet's 100-year bond). The world's most conservative capital—pensions, insurers—is now funding Silicon Valley's most speculative bet. This shift makes these companies resemble heavy-asset industrials (railroads, utilities) rather than software firms, threatening their premium valuations. Historically, such infrastructure booms (railroads, fiber optics) followed a pattern: genuine technology, overbuilding fueled by competitive frenzy, aggressive debt financing, and a crash triggered by financial conditions—not technology failure. The infrastructure remained, but many original builders and financiers did not survive. The core gamble is a "time arbitrage": using cheap debt today to build scale and lock in customers before AI capabilities commoditize. They are betting that AI revenue will materialize before debt comes due. Their positions vary: Amazon is under immediate cash pressure; Meta's path to monetization is unclear; Alphabet has a robust core business buffer; Microsoft has the shortest path from infrastructure to revenue. The contract is set: the most risk-averse global capital has lent its time to Silicon Valley, awaiting a future that is promised but uncertain.

marsbit05/12 06:12

Borrowing Money from a Hundred Years Later, Building Incomprehensible AI

marsbit05/12 06:12

While Everyone Says NFTs Are 'Dead', the Art World is Quietly Completing an 'On-Chain Renaissance'

While many declare NFTs "dead" and dismiss them as overhyped JPEGs, a significant institutional shift is quietly underway within the art world, signaling a "on-chain renaissance." Traditional art, a ~$60B market, is stagnant, aging, and highly concentrated, facing a massive $80 trillion generational wealth transfer to digital-native heirs. Contrary to the narrative, leading institutions have been building infrastructure for digital and on-chain art. Major museums like MoMA, the Centre Pompidou, LACMA, and the Guggenheim have acquired seminal NFT works into their permanent collections. Top galleries like Pace, Gagosian, and Hauser & Wirth have launched NFT platforms or accepted crypto, with Pace giving a solo show to generative artist Tyler Hobbs. Auction houses Sotheby's and Christie's operate dedicated on-chain sales platforms. This follows a historical pattern where every major art movement—from Impressionism to Pop Art—was initially mocked before institutional acceptance. NFT art, only 7-12 years old, is progressing faster. Auction data shows resilience, with works by Beeple ($69.3M), Pak (~$91M), and Dmitri Cherniak ($6.2M in a bear market) achieving high prices. A new cohort of collectors (e.g., FlamingoDAO, PleasrDAO) and "Medici" figures like Cozomo de' Medici are accumulating foundational works. The core argument is that NFTs represent not a speculative asset class but a new ownership system for digital culture, solving provenance issues through immutable, timestamped blockchain records. The medium has survived the speculative crash and is being institutionalized. The bet isn't on short-term price rallies but on the long-term cultural significance of on-chain art as the defining medium for the next generation of collectors.

marsbit05/12 02:49

While Everyone Says NFTs Are 'Dead', the Art World is Quietly Completing an 'On-Chain Renaissance'

marsbit05/12 02:49

Those Pre-Bitcoin PoW Protocols Have Recently Been Reimplemented

This article details a recent surge in replicating pre-Bitcoin Proof-of-Work (PoW) protocols, specifically focusing on Hal Finney's 2004 RPOW (Reusable Proofs of Work). Within five days in May 2026, multiple independent builders in the Bitcoin/cypherpunk community launched projects inspired by this early electronic cash proposal. The initiative began with Fred Krueger's `rpow2.com`, a centralized but auditable system that replaced RPOW's original IBM 4758 hardware with Ed25519 signatures. Initially a faithful replica, it later adopted Bitcoin-like features (21M supply cap, difficulty adjustment) and a controversial 5.24% founder allocation. This sparked rapid forks, including `rpow4.com` which incorporated full Bitcoin parameters, a prediction market (`rpowmarket.com`), and a DEX (`rpow2swap.com`). Concurrently, Mike In Space created a prototype of Wei Dai's 1998 b-money proposal (`b-money.replit.app`), pushing the historical exploration even further back. The article contrasts these centralized, server-dependent experiments with Bitcoin's core innovation of decentralized, trustless consensus. It also highlights a parallel development: the `HASH` project on Ethereum, which uses smart contract hooks to enable a purely fair-launch, browser-mineable PoW token with 0% allocations to team or VCs. The collective activity is framed as a meme-driven, educational exploration of cypherpunk history rather than a serious financial movement, with all projects heavily disclaiming any investment value.

marsbit05/11 09:12

Those Pre-Bitcoin PoW Protocols Have Recently Been Reimplemented

marsbit05/11 09:12

a16z: Will AI Really Bring an Employment Apocalypse?

This article challenges the widespread fear that AI will lead to mass unemployment, framing it as a modern version of the "lump of labor fallacy"—the mistaken belief that the total amount of work in society is fixed. The author argues that history shows transformative technologies like tractors, electricity, and spreadsheets didn't destroy jobs overall; instead, they eliminated specific tasks while creating entirely new industries and occupations (e.g., shifting from agriculture to manufacturing and services, or from bookkeeping to financial analysis). The core argument is that AI is primarily a productivity tool that will redefine work rather than eliminate it. While AI will automate some repetitive tasks, it acts as a "force multiplier," making roles like software engineers, product managers, and systems designers more efficient and valuable. Data indicates that corporate discussions focus far more on AI as an enhancement tool than a replacement, and demand for tech roles is growing. The article concludes that technological progress expands the economic pie, creating new demands and jobs we can't yet imagine. The real impact of AI won't be an employment apocalypse but a reorganization of the labor market, driving higher productivity and new forms of work.

marsbit05/08 14:24

a16z: Will AI Really Bring an Employment Apocalypse?

marsbit05/08 14:24

The History of U.S. Stocks is, Behind It, a History of American Wars

The article argues that the history of the U.S. stock market is deeply intertwined with American military conflicts. While current Middle East tensions raise economic concerns, major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue hitting new highs. Historical analysis shows U.S. wars, from the Spanish-American War to recent conflicts in the Middle East, have often coincided with market gains, as seen in the Dow Jones's performance during these periods. The U.S. transitioned from a war participant to an initiator, with most conflicts post-Vietnam being short, focused on oil, and achieving strategic goals. The market's reaction to war has evolved. Pre-1950s, investor sentiment directly drove swings based on battle outcomes. From the Korean War onward, the focus shifted to economic channels like inflation, oil prices, and fiscal policy. For instance, during the Gulf War, stock movements inversely correlated with oil price swings. The primary beneficiary industries have also changed: coal dominated WWII, oil surged during Korea and Vietnam, but by the Gulf War, the indirect economic impact made consumer staples outperform. Overall, as the U.S. economy grew, the direct market impact of individual wars diminished, giving way to broader macroeconomic factors like interest rates and deficits as the key drivers.

marsbit05/08 08:29

The History of U.S. Stocks is, Behind It, a History of American Wars

marsbit05/08 08:29

Historical Data Shows Bitcoin Price Has Never Breached This Level – Will It Start Now?

Historical data reveals a consistent pattern in Bitcoin's price action: after recovering 30% from a cycle low, it has never retested that bottom. This has held true across six major cycles since 2011. The current cycle, which saw a low near $61,300 in February, is approaching this critical threshold at approximately $79,694. Bitcoin has already up about 28% and needs just a 2.7% increase to breach this historically significant level. Supporting this bullish signal, exchange reserves have hit new lows, and large investors have accumulated the most BTC in a month since 2013.

bitcoinist04/26 14:23

Historical Data Shows Bitcoin Price Has Never Breached This Level – Will It Start Now?

bitcoinist04/26 14:23

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