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Fed's Internal Doves Flock to Hawkish Stance, Warsh's Debut "Between a Rock and a Hard Place"

U.S. Federal Reserve officials who previously advocated for rate cuts, including Governor Christopher Waller, have recently shifted their stance, with many now not ruling out the possibility of future rate hikes. This sets a challenging stage for new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first policy meeting. Appointed by President Trump based on his dovish views, Warsh now faces a committee where the debate has pivoted from "when to cut" to "whether to hike," driven by persistent inflation above 3%, a strong labor market, and supply-side pressures from AI infrastructure demands and geopolitical tensions. Key figures illustrate the shift. Governor Waller, once concerned about employment, now says data has pushed him toward considering rate increases. Even moderate voices like Governor Lisa Cook, while expecting inflation to ease, have indicated readiness to hike if it fails to do so. Long-time hawks such as regional Fed presidents Beth Hammack, Lorie Logan, and Neel Kashkari have grown more vocal, arguing that the real policy rate is effectively falling and that action may soon be needed. The upcoming Fed meeting is expected to keep rates steady but will likely remove the "easing bias" from its statement, signaling a neutral stance between cuts and hikes. The quarterly "dot plot" is anticipated to show most officials projecting no cuts this year, with some potentially indicating hikes. Chair Warsh, a critic of the Fed's reliance on forward guidance like the dot plot, must navigate communicating this pivot using tools he has questioned, all while steering policy in a direction counter to the preferences of the president who appointed him. The consensus suggests the Fed's next move could well be a rate increase.

marsbitHace 11 hora(s)

Fed's Internal Doves Flock to Hawkish Stance, Warsh's Debut "Between a Rock and a Hard Place"

marsbitHace 11 hora(s)

Fed Officials: The Current Choice Is Between Patience and Interest Rate Hikes; Inflation Is Top Economic Risk, AI Not Impactful Currently

Fed officials sent hawkish signals on inflation and interest rates. Key officials emphasized that the central bank's current choice is between maintaining patience and considering rate hikes to combat stubbornly high inflation, which they identified as the top economic risk. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid explicitly placed rate hikes on the table, while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated policy is in a good place but the Fed is prepared to move in "either direction," cautioning that forward guidance could be misleading amid high uncertainty. Market pricing now reflects a significant chance of a rate increase this year. Regarding AI, officials noted it is currently neither raising nor lowering inflation and has not yet delivered widespread productivity gains at a macroeconomic level. While AI could become a disinflationary force over a five-to-ten-year horizon, it is not an immediate factor for near-term monetary policy decisions. The next FOMC meeting in June is widely expected to leave rates unchanged. Officials also observed that the labor market appears balanced and is showing signs of stabilizing.

marsbit06/05 02:48

Fed Officials: The Current Choice Is Between Patience and Interest Rate Hikes; Inflation Is Top Economic Risk, AI Not Impactful Currently

marsbit06/05 02:48

Warsh's First Day in Office, Markets Deliver a 'Wake-up Call': Rate Hike Expected This Year

On his first day in office, newly inaugurated Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh received a stark market warning, with expectations now fully pricing in a 25-basis-point interest rate hike this year. The shift was triggered by hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Waller, who stated that inflation is now the key policy "driver" and that the odds of a hike or cut are evenly split. This sent short-term Treasury yields higher. Waller signaled a significant pivot in his stance, citing disappointing inflation and labor data. He suggested removing "easing bias" language from Fed statements and did not rule out future rate increases if inflation fails to recede, though he noted immediate action isn't warranted without signs of unanchored inflation expectations. Chairman Warsh faces immediate pressure at his first FOMC meeting in June. With the preferred inflation gauge at a three-year high, analysts warn that failing to hike could be interpreted as an implicit easing of policy. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is adding to existing price pressures. The market's expectation for a hike contrasts sharply with earlier forecasts for multiple cuts. While long-term Treasury yields have been contained by lower energy prices recently, analysts note they remain under structural upward pressure. Warsh's swearing-in at the White House highlights political scrutiny over Fed independence. However, the market has made it clear that inflation is the most urgent challenge, leaving the new chairman little time to settle in.

marsbit05/23 05:17

Warsh's First Day in Office, Markets Deliver a 'Wake-up Call': Rate Hike Expected This Year

marsbit05/23 05:17

When Is The Next FOMC Meeting And What Are The Expectations For Crypto?

The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for April 29, 2026, and is expected to result in no change to the current interest rate of 3.5-3.75%. According to the FedWatch Tool, there is a 99.5% probability rates will remain unchanged, a 0.5% chance of a hike, and a 0% chance of a cut. Consequently, the crypto market is anticipated to see little to no significant movement following the announcement. Historically, FOMC decisions heavily influence crypto: hawkish stances (rate hikes) often cause market declines, while dovish stances (rate cuts) typically trigger rallies. A neutral decision, like the one expected, usually allows the market to continue its existing trend without major disruption.

bitcoinist04/25 13:31

When Is The Next FOMC Meeting And What Are The Expectations For Crypto?

bitcoinist04/25 13:31

Will the Fed Still Cut Interest Rates? Tonight's Data Is Crucial

The core debate surrounding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts is intensifying amid geopolitical conflict and rebounding inflation. The key question is whether high energy prices will cause persistent inflation or weaken consumer demand enough to force the Fed to cut rates. Citigroup presents a bullish case for cuts, arguing that oil supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz are temporary and will not lead to lasting inflationary pressure. They point to receding bond yields and oil prices as evidence the market is pricing in a short-lived shock. Citi's data also shows tightening financial conditions, a stabilizing labor market, and healthy tax returns, supporting their view that the path to lower rates remains open. Conversely, Deutsche Bank offers a starkly contrasting, more hawkish outlook. They argue the Fed's current policy is already neutral and expect rates to remain unchanged indefinitely. Their view is based on stalled disinflation progress and a shift toward more hawkish rhetoric from key Fed officials like Waller, who cited risks from prolonged Middle East conflict and tariffs. Other officials, including Williams and Hammack, signaled rates would likely stay on hold for a "considerable time." The market pricing has shifted dramatically, now forecasting zero cuts in 2026. The imminent release of the March retail sales "control group" data is highlighted as a critical test. This metric, which excludes gas station sales, will reveal if high gasoline prices are eroding consumer spending in other areas. A weak reading could support the case for imminent rate cuts, while a strong one would bolster the argument for the Fed to hold steady. This data is pivotal for determining the near-term policy path.

marsbit04/21 02:47

Will the Fed Still Cut Interest Rates? Tonight's Data Is Crucial

marsbit04/21 02:47

Is the U.S. Stock Market Also at Risk of a Crash Tonight?

U.S. markets face heightened risk as Nasdaq futures drop nearly 1% and the S&P 500 retreats from highs, with VIX rising to 17.44. Technical analysis shows Nasdaq breaking a key upward trendline, potentially signaling a larger downtrend. Political uncertainty surrounds Trump’s potential Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh, named in Epstein files, raising fears of hawkish policies and abrupt monetary tightening. Commodities saw a sharp sell-off, with gold down 12% and silver crashing 36%, triggering margin calls and cross-market contagion. Asian equities fell, and Bitcoin dropped below $75k. Economic vulnerabilities include rising Treasury yields, potential recession signals, and cracks in the AI-driven tech rally. Geopolitical tensions—such as potential U.S.-Iran conflict—and stagflation risks echo the 1979 crisis, suggesting possible aggressive Fed action and a major market correction. Investors are advised to prepare for increased volatility.

marsbit02/02 08:53

Is the U.S. Stock Market Also at Risk of a Crash Tonight?

marsbit02/02 08:53

The Real Culprit Behind the Crypto Crash: The Warsh Effect

The cryptocurrency market crash, termed the "Warsh Effect," was triggered by former President Donald Trump's announcement nominating Kevin Warsh, a known monetary policy hawk, as the next Federal Reserve Chair. This news caused significant sell-offs, with Bitcoin dropping over 13% from ~$90,400 to $78,214, and Ethereum and Solana falling over 18% in a week. Key reasons include expectations of tighter monetary policy under Warsh, leading to reduced liquidity and higher real interest rates, which negatively impact risk-sensitive assets like crypto. This triggered massive outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs (~$1 billion in a day), initiating a cascade of leveraged liquidations. However, Warsh's views on Bitcoin are nuanced; he has called it a valuable policy barometer and acknowledged its role in U.S. competitiveness. His actual influence remains limited as Fed policy is set by the broader FOMC, which is already cautious about rate cuts. The market's reaction blends fear of monetary tightening with uncertainty over his confirmation, which faces Senate hurdles. The outcome of his confirmation hearings will be critical for future crypto market trends.

marsbit02/02 00:09

The Real Culprit Behind the Crypto Crash: The Warsh Effect

marsbit02/02 00:09

Tiger Research: Liquidity Vacuum Drives Sharp Sell-off, Why Hasn't Bitcoin Rebounded?

Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline from $87,000 to $81,000 on January 29, driven by a combination of weak tech earnings and speculation around a potential hawkish Fed chair appointment. The drop was exacerbated by thin liquidity in both spot and futures markets, amplifying the impact of external shocks. Key support at the active realized price of $87,000 was broken, triggering further selling. Despite short-term bearish sentiment, the medium to long-term outlook remains positive due to expected gradual monetary easing and supportive regulatory developments, including potential institutional adoption. Bitcoin's current weakness is viewed as a liquidity-driven correction rather than a fundamental breakdown.

marsbit02/01 11:49

Tiger Research: Liquidity Vacuum Drives Sharp Sell-off, Why Hasn't Bitcoin Rebounded?

marsbit02/01 11:49

The Real Culprit Behind the Crypto Crash: The Warsh Effect

The cryptocurrency market crash, termed the "Warsh Effect," is attributed to former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh's potential nomination as the next chair. Following the announcement, Bitcoin fell to $78,214 (down 6.9% in 24 hours, 12.4% weekly), Ethereum to $2,415 (down 10.5% in 24 hours, 18.2% weekly), and other major altcoins like Solana also experienced significant double-digit losses. Warsh, known as a monetary policy hawk, has historically emphasized inflation vigilance and criticized post-2008 crisis stimulus measures. Markets reacted negatively due to expectations of tighter monetary policy, higher real interest rates, and reduced liquidity—conditions unfavorable for risk assets like crypto. This triggered over $1 billion in net outflows from US Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, initiating a cascade of liquidations that accelerated the sell-off. However, Warsh has also expressed constructive views on Bitcoin, calling it a valuable policy barometer and highlighting the US strategic interest in leading crypto development. His appointment requires Senate confirmation and, even if approved, he would only be one vote on the FOMC, which currently holds a cautious consensus on rate cuts. The market's reaction reflects a clash between the bearish narrative of tighter liquidity and a bullish perspective that considers Warsh's pro-innovation stance and political context. The key upcoming event is his Senate confirmation hearing, which will provide clearer signals on future monetary and regulatory policy.

Odaily星球日报02/01 11:13

The Real Culprit Behind the Crypto Crash: The Warsh Effect

Odaily星球日报02/01 11:13

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