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New Fed Correspondent: Inflation Data 'Neither Hot Nor Cold' Offers Fed Temporary Respite but Future Path Remains Uncertain

Inflation data for July came in as expected, providing the Federal Reserve with some breathing room ahead of its September meeting, though the longer-term policy path remains uncertain. The core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year, in line with forecasts, easing immediate pressure for a rate hike. Following the report, market expectations for a September rate increase fell below 50%. Despite the temporary respite, deep divisions persist within the Fed. At least six of the twelve voting members have recently signaled openness to further tightening, with three having voted for a hike in July. The debate centers on whether current rates are sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation back to the 2% target or if persistent factors like tariffs, energy prices, and surging demand from AI infrastructure necessitate more action. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly highlighted the growing complexity, outlining two potential scenarios: a baseline where inflationary pressures fade, allowing for rates to hold steady, and an alternative where shocks persist and inflation gains self-reinforcing momentum. She suggested that if the latter materializes, the policy response might need to be more aggressive than the typical 25-basis-point increments. With Fed Chair Wash adopting a less forward-leaning public stance, markets are closely monitoring data and other officials' comments for clues. The upcoming August CPI report, due just days before the September FOMC meeting, is now seen as a critical determinant for the final decision.

marsbit08/13 02:11

New Fed Correspondent: Inflation Data 'Neither Hot Nor Cold' Offers Fed Temporary Respite but Future Path Remains Uncertain

marsbit08/13 02:11

With Half of the FOMC Already Hawkish, Will Wash Become a "Lame Duck" Chairman?

Federal Reserve Chair Walsh faces an unusual authority crisis as hawkish FOMC members gain influence. According to sources familiar with his thinking, if upcoming inflation data runs hot, Walsh is prepared to support a rate hike at the September meeting—a move seen as crisis management after his perceived lack of clear guidance in July. Currently, six FOMC members are inclined to raise rates if inflation remains persistent. This includes three who dissented in July for an immediate hike, two who indicated they are close to joining the hawkish camp, and one governor who has publicly warned of potential tightening. With 12 voting members and no tie-breaking vote for the chair, a coalition of six could push through a rate increase without Walsh's endorsement, potentially forcing him to either follow the majority or stand isolated. Market pricing has also shifted, with short-term interest rate futures now reflecting firmer expectations for one to two hikes this year. While Walsh's team points to stable long-term inflation expectations as a sign of policy credibility, analysts argue the overall market signal points toward tightening. The situation illustrates how a central bank chair can lose control of the committee's direction if communication falters and a hawkish consensus forms.

marsbit08/12 02:46

With Half of the FOMC Already Hawkish, Will Wash Become a "Lame Duck" Chairman?

marsbit08/12 02:46

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is ready to support a rate hike at the September meeting, according to available data

According to reports, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is prepared to support an interest rate hike at the September meeting if upcoming inflation data remains high. Market expectations for a rate increase have strengthened, with futures indicating roughly a 57% probability of a 25 basis point rise. The report notes a recent sharp sell-off in U.S. Treasuries, driving long-term borrowing costs to multi-year highs. Some investors attribute this volatility not only to energy prices and inflation risks but also to Chairman Warsh's concise communication style, which they believe has undermined confidence in the Fed's inflation control. While Warsh acknowledges early communication missteps, such as failing to sufficiently emphasize commitment to price stability, he intends to maintain his data-focused approach, urging markets to concentrate on economic indicators rather than Fed guidance. This stance contrasts with predecessors and places him at odds with President Donald Trump, who reportedly favors rate cuts and has frequently contacted the Chairman on the matter.

cryptonews.ru08/07 07:06

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is ready to support a rate hike at the September meeting, according to available data

cryptonews.ru08/07 07:06

Inside the Fed, Hawkish Sentiments Strengthen: Three Members Explain Why They Want an Interest Rate Hike!

Although the U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady as expected in July, several officials dissented, advocating for an increase. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack argued that high inflation is likely persistent and won't spontaneously fall to the 2% target, warning that delays could necessitate more aggressive future hikes. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari emphasized the risk of inflation becoming entrenched, favoring a gradual tightening approach. He suggested small, preemptive steps would allow the Fed to better manage the economic impact compared to waiting and potentially needing harsher measures later. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan also supported a rate hike, stressing the need for immediate action to address high inflation. All three officials had similarly opposed the decision to pause rate hikes at the Fed's April meeting.

cryptonews.ru07/31 19:50

Inside the Fed, Hawkish Sentiments Strengthen: Three Members Explain Why They Want an Interest Rate Hike!

cryptonews.ru07/31 19:50

BIT Research: Two Major Bearish Factors Continue to Weigh on the Market, Why is Bitcoin Still Near the Cycle Bottom?

Market remains under pressure from a hawkish Federal Reserve and fading regulatory optimism, yet Bitcoin demonstrates resilience near cycle lows. Despite Chairman Kevin Walsh's firm stance keeping Treasury yields elevated and the probability of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 dropping to 32%, Bitcoin has held within a $62,000-$66,000 range, declining only ~3% over the past week amid these headwinds. Overall market conditions are weak: trading volume is down ~80% from its peak, total market cap has fallen ~50%, and stablecoin supply shows no growth, indicating a lack of fresh dollar liquidity. However, Bitcoin's relative strength versus altcoins suggests significant repositioning may be complete, reducing the likelihood of a sharp further decline. The focus is shifting to whether the cycle bottom is forming. A sustained move above $70,000 could signal the low is in.

marsbit07/31 11:21

BIT Research: Two Major Bearish Factors Continue to Weigh on the Market, Why is Bitcoin Still Near the Cycle Bottom?

marsbit07/31 11:21

Expect news tomorrow: this time the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision! What impact will this have on Bitcoin?

A day before the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) interest rate decision announcement, the Japanese yen surged nearly 3% against the US dollar. The sharp move in the currency market fueled speculation that the Japanese government may have intervened again to support the yen. The USD/JPY pair fell over 400 pips to 158.5, its steepest daily drop since Japan's currency intervention earlier this year. Market participants suspect the rapid, strong yen appreciation could be due to direct foreign currency sales by Japanese authorities, though the Ministry of Finance has made no official statement. The yen had previously fallen to its weakest level against the dollar in nearly 40 years. In late April and May, the government intervened with roughly 9.6 trillion yen to prevent the USD/JPY from rising sustainably above 160, but the yen faced renewed selling pressure afterward. Investors are now focused on the BOJ's rate decision and its signals on future monetary policy. Potential hawkish signals from the BOJ are seen as a factor that could support further yen strength. A sharp yen appreciation could create short-term selling pressure on Bitcoin by increasing the risk of unwinding carry trades, where investors borrow low-yielding yen to invest in Bitcoin and other risky assets. This pressure could intensify if the BOJ takes a hawkish stance or raises interest rates.

cryptonews.ru07/30 17:11

Expect news tomorrow: this time the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision! What impact will this have on Bitcoin?

cryptonews.ru07/30 17:11

How will the Fed's hawkish stance affect Bitcoin? Experts point to liquidity pressure! Here are the details

The U.S. Federal Reserve's persistently hawkish monetary policy stance is expected to continue pressuring cryptocurrency markets, particularly Bitcoin, despite holding interest rates steady. Analysis following the July 29 rate decision indicates this approach, aimed at combating inflation even at the risk of slowing growth, creates unfavorable macroeconomic conditions for crypto assets. Tighter policy could reduce system-wide liquidity and dampen investor risk appetite. Specifically, crypto positions reliant on leverage or cheap financing will face higher costs, potentially exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin. Institutional investors may adopt more defensive portfolio strategies if the Fed's firm rhetoric persists, potentially increasing selling pressure on risky assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies. A accelerated shift toward safer havens such as bonds and cash could slow capital inflows into crypto markets. While Bitcoin has shown relative resilience, maintaining key support levels amid recent macroeconomic shifts, experts warn that any new or unexpectedly hawkish signals from the Fed regarding further policy tightening could trigger fresh market volatility. In such a scenario, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies might face additional near-term price pressure.

cryptonews.ru07/30 08:50

How will the Fed's hawkish stance affect Bitcoin? Experts point to liquidity pressure! Here are the details

cryptonews.ru07/30 08:50

Fed Drops 'Hawkish Bomb' Late at Night: Interest Rates on Hold, Internal Divisions Unseen in a Decade

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29, marking the fifth consecutive pause since late 2026. While the decision was widely expected, it revealed a significant internal rift. Three FOMC voting members—Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan—dissented, advocating for a 25-basis-point hike. This level of opposition, the first of its kind since 2016, signals persistent hawkish pressure. Chairman Wash, in a post-meeting press conference, delivered a firm message, emphasizing an unwavering commitment to the 2% inflation target and stating the Fed "would not hesitate to act." He announced a substantial shift away from forward guidance, urging markets to interpret economic data independently. Wash also highlighted AI-related capital spending as a key variable, noting its potential dual impact on boosting productivity while potentially pushing up certain prices. Market reaction was pronounced. Stocks fell sharply, with the Dow dropping over 2% for its worst day in 15 months. Long-term Treasury yields surged, with the 30-year yield hitting its highest since 2007, while the dollar weakened and gold briefly rose above $4,100. The combination of internal policy dissent and a shift toward data-dependent communication introduced significant uncertainty into the market outlook.

marsbit07/30 01:44

Fed Drops 'Hawkish Bomb' Late at Night: Interest Rates on Hold, Internal Divisions Unseen in a Decade

marsbit07/30 01:44

After the Fed's Interest Rate Decision and Comments from Kevin Walsh, Experts Gathered and Shared Their Latest Insights!

Following the Fed's decision to hold interest rates steady, experts highlight a potential shift towards more independent policymaking within the FOMC, as three members dissented. Market strategists note the slight decline in bond yields and a weaker dollar post-announcement, but caution that a rate hike in September remains possible. Experts like Mark Hackett point to the three dissenting votes as a sign of growing committee independence. While markets initially rallied in relief, the final direction hinges on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's upcoming press conference. Analysts, including Audrey Childs-Freeman, interpret the dissent as the Fed maintaining a hawkish stance. They suggest the Fed will continue monitoring data, with a summer scenario of high bond yields supporting the dollar still in play. Chris Anstey emphasizes that markets will closely watch the 10-year Treasury yield during Warsh's conference. A continued rise could signal investor fears that the Fed is not acting aggressively enough on inflation, posing a challenge for the Chair. The long-term yield is also viewed as critical for mortgages and economic management. Diane Swonk of KPMG argues a September rate hike is likely, stating that an increase now would have been more appropriate given nearly five years of high inflation. She warns that prolonged high prices risk becoming embedded in the economic system. *This is not investment advice.

cryptonews.ru07/29 20:51

After the Fed's Interest Rate Decision and Comments from Kevin Walsh, Experts Gathered and Shared Their Latest Insights!

cryptonews.ru07/29 20:51

Breaking News: Full Detailed Rationale and Explanation of the Fed's Interest Rate Decision Released!

As expected, the Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75 percent, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change. The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision passed with a 9-3 majority vote. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan dissented, voting in favor of a 25 basis point rate hike. This was the first meeting since 2016 where three regional Fed presidents voted against holding rates steady, signaling growing influence among members advocating for tighter monetary policy to combat inflation. The Fed's statement noted that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace despite high uncertainty, partly due to Middle East conflicts. It highlighted that growth in productivity and investment remained strong, employment gains have aligned with labor force growth, and the unemployment rate has remained relatively stable. The Fed also committed to maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. The statement emphasized that inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. It noted that supply shocks, including in the energy sector, are adding to inflationary pressures. The Committee stated it will continue to closely monitor incoming data and risks in pursuit of its price stability goal. The dissenting members argued that the target range for the federal funds rate should have been increased by 25 basis points.

cryptonews.ru07/29 18:36

Breaking News: Full Detailed Rationale and Explanation of the Fed's Interest Rate Decision Released!

cryptonews.ru07/29 18:36

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