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Bhutan, A Country Betting 9% of Its GDP on Bitcoin

Bhutan, a small Himalayan kingdom, has made a dramatic and high-stakes bet on Bitcoin, investing up to 9% of its GDP in cryptocurrency mining infrastructure. The country leveraged its abundant hydroelectric power—a natural resource that often produces surplus energy—to mine Bitcoin starting around 2019-2020. This initiative was led by its sovereign wealth fund, Druk Holding and Investments (DHI), under CEO Ujjwal Deep Dahal, as a strategic move to diversify foreign reserves and escape economic dependency on India, which buys most of Bhutan's electricity under restrictive terms. At its peak, Bhutan held an estimated 13,000 Bitcoin. However, it has since sold significant portions to address fiscal needs, including a $72 million sale in 2023 to fund a 50% salary increase for public servants amid a severe brain drain. More ambitiously, the government pledged up to 10,000 Bitcoin (worth ~$1 billion) to fund the Gelephu Mindfulness City (GMC), a proposed special economic zone with a projected cost of $100 billion—nearly 30 times Bhutan’s 2025 GDP. The country also engaged in sophisticated on-chain strategies, such as using ETH as collateral for loans on platforms like Aave, though it faced near-liquidation during market downturns. While Bitcoin mining has helped reduce the current account deficit and boost reserves, it hasn’t solved deep-seated issues like youth unemployment, which remains high at 18%, driving significant emigration. Despite national-level gains, many citizens continue to seek opportunities abroad, highlighting the disconnect between macroeconomic gambles and everyday livelihoods.

marsbit04/08 03:14

Bhutan, A Country Betting 9% of Its GDP on Bitcoin

marsbit04/08 03:14

Wall Street Collectively Pessimistic About 2026: Could an Oil Crisis Trigger an Economic Recession?

In late March, multiple major financial institutions—Moody's Analytics, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and EY-Parthenon—raised their 12-month recession probability forecasts for the U.S. to over 30%. Moody’s gave the highest estimate at 48.6%, followed by EY-Parthenon at 40%, J.P. Morgan at 35%, and Goldman Sachs at 30%. A key common factor is the sharp rise in oil prices, with Brent crude surpassing $100 per barrel in early March—the first time in four years—due to supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit route. Historical data indicates that four out of the five major oil price shocks since the 1970s led to economic recessions. Although the current price increase of around 80% is the smallest among them, the scale of supply disruption is described by the IEA as the largest since the 1970s energy crises. J.P. Morgan estimates that every sustained 10% increase in oil prices reduces U.S. GDP growth by 15–20 basis points. Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, outlined two extreme outcomes: either geopolitical resolution leads to oil prices falling to $40 and global growth, or prolonged conflict keeps prices above $100—possibly near $150—triggering a global recession. He ruled out a 2008-style systemic financial meltdown, citing stronger bank buffers. Beyond oil, declining consumer confidence and weak employment data are amplifying concerns. The convergence of pessimistic forecasts from different methodological approaches may itself influence economic behavior, potentially becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy as businesses and consumers become more cautious.

marsbit03/26 03:05

Wall Street Collectively Pessimistic About 2026: Could an Oil Crisis Trigger an Economic Recession?

marsbit03/26 03:05

Will AI Really Cause an Economic Collapse in 2028? New Metrics Reveal Another Possibility

A response to Citrini Research's "2028 Global Intelligence Crisis" paper argues against its prediction of an AI-induced economic collapse. The author posits that while AI will destroy the income side of the economy (wages, jobs), it will simultaneously and more rapidly destroy the cost side, leading to a "deflationary prosperity." Traditional economic metrics like GDP and unemployment rates are becoming obsolete in this new "post-human economy." The key measure of future prosperity will be "intelligence output per unit energy," which is exponentially increasing. This transition, though potentially turbulent, is not a crisis but a radical evolution. AI and automation are also seen as necessary to fill a looming demographic gap from a declining global workforce. The new economy will shift value creation towards uniquely human traits like empathy, creativity, and connection, which are not captured by traditional indicators.

比推02/25 12:37

Will AI Really Cause an Economic Collapse in 2028? New Metrics Reveal Another Possibility

比推02/25 12:37

Refuting the '2028 Economic Collapse Theory': AI Takes Your Job, But Also Makes Everything Almost Free

In response to Citrini Research's "2028 Global Intelligence Crisis" paper predicting AI-induced economic collapse, this article presents a counter-argument. It posits that while AI may eliminate jobs and reduce incomes, it will also drastically lower the costs of goods and services—from healthcare and legal advice to software and energy—creating a "deflationary prosperity." The author argues that traditional economic metrics like GDP and unemployment rates are becoming obsolete in this transition to a "post-human economy." The true measure of future prosperity should be "intelligence output per unit of energy," which is rising exponentially. This shift will not lead to systemic collapse but rather a radical transformation where value migrates from cognitive labor to uniquely human attributes like empathy, creativity, and connection. Although the transition may involve significant disruption, the outcome will be a more abundant and functional economic system.

marsbit02/25 09:46

Refuting the '2028 Economic Collapse Theory': AI Takes Your Job, But Also Makes Everything Almost Free

marsbit02/25 09:46

Bitcoin: How $335M whale move tests BTC as inflation looms

Bitcoin demonstrated short-term bullish momentum following the U.S. Supreme Court ruling against Trump's tariffs, closing up 1.52% on February 20. However, it failed to break the $70,000 resistance level as traders remained cautious amid macroeconomic uncertainty. A hotter-than-expected PCE inflation report further reinforced concerns. Notably, a whale moved $335 million worth of BTC just minutes before the release of weak U.S. Q4 GDP data (1.4%), suggesting strategic positioning ahead of potential market stress. This timing underscores the critical role of macro events in shaping crypto market movements. Despite positive developments, Bitcoin's support levels remain under pressure, reflecting longer-term investor caution influenced by inflation and potential $175 billion tariff refunds.

ambcrypto02/22 03:01

Bitcoin: How $335M whale move tests BTC as inflation looms

ambcrypto02/22 03:01

Rate Cuts Watch: FOMC Minutes, PCE Inflation and Jobs Data To Move Crypto

This week's crypto market focus is on key U.S. economic data that could influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, due Wednesday, may reveal the Fed's internal debate on inflation and growth, potentially shifting rate-cut expectations without a policy change. Thursday's jobless claims will test whether the labor market is cooling, a crucial factor for the Fed's timing. Friday brings the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data—the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—and the Q4 GDP report, which will provide insights into economic resilience. Markets have recently increased odds of a June rate cut, making any surprises in these releases highly impactful. Crypto, particularly Bitcoin, is sensitive to changes in rate expectations, as they affect Treasury yields, the dollar, and overall risk appetite.

ccn.com02/16 10:13

Rate Cuts Watch: FOMC Minutes, PCE Inflation and Jobs Data To Move Crypto

ccn.com02/16 10:13

A Conversation with Cathie Wood: Eight Insights on the Big Ideas 2026

"Big Ideas 2026: A Conversation with Cathie Wood" by Peter Diamandis summarizes a discussion with ARK Invest's founder on eight key insights. The core thesis is that the world is at a 125-year technological inflection point, driven by the exponential convergence of five platforms: AI, robotics, energy storage, blockchain, and multiomic sequencing. This fusion is projected to double global GDP growth to 7% by 2030. Key takeaways include: data centers migrating to orbit for superior solar efficiency; AI inference costs plummeting 99%, commoditizing intelligence; a US-China AI cold war accelerating open-source innovation; a bullish Bitcoin forecast of $1.5M by 2030 as a hedge against deflation; a nuclear energy revival to power AI data centers; and the imminent disruption of transportation by autonomous taxis and delivery systems, with Tesla positioned to dominate. The conclusion urges entrepreneurs and investors to think across converging technologies, embrace deflation-driven demand explosions, and recognize that energy is the new constraint. The future will be built by those who leverage Wright’s Law and participate in this transformative era.

marsbit02/09 08:26

A Conversation with Cathie Wood: Eight Insights on the Big Ideas 2026

marsbit02/09 08:26

Elections, Oil Prices, and the Money Printer: Why Bitcoin Only Cares About Trump

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, analyzes the U.S. election, oil prices, and monetary expansion through a trader’s lens, arguing that Bitcoin’s performance hinges on Trump’s policies. He asserts that politicians’s primary goal is reelection, driven by economic perceptions of voters. For electoral success, Trump must boost nominal GDP through credit expansion while suppressing oil-driven inflation, particularly gasoline prices, which significantly influence voter behavior. Hayes suggests that controlling Venezuelan oil is a strategic move to keep energy costs low. If oil prices remain stable or fall amid economic growth, Trump’s camp benefits; rising oil costs could favor opponents. The key for investors is to monitor oil prices and Treasury yields—if they spike, credit expansion may slow, hurting risk assets. Otherwise, continued money printing will likely propel Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies upward. Hayes concludes that persistent dollar liquidity expansion, driven by deficit spending and Fed policies, will cause Bitcoin to "moon." His fund, Maelstrom, is positioned long on privacy-focused crypto assets like ZEC, expecting them to outperform major cryptocurrencies amid ongoing monetary inflation.

marsbit01/06 07:12

Elections, Oil Prices, and the Money Printer: Why Bitcoin Only Cares About Trump

marsbit01/06 07:12

Crypto Morning Brief: Spot Gold Hits New High Again, Gnosis Hard Fork Recovers Hacked Balancer Funds

Cryptocurrency & Market Morning Brief: Spot gold hits a new all-time high, surpassing $4,500/oz. U.S. Treasury Secretary supports reconsidering the Fed's 2% inflation target. Russia plans to allow retail investors to trade cryptocurrencies under new regulations. Gnosis Chain executed a hard fork to recover $116M from the Balancer hack. a16z highlights privacy as a key competitive advantage in crypto. Wintermute reports Bitcoin and Ethereum dominance rising, with altcoins under pressure. A $50M virtual currency robbery occurred in Hong Kong. SOL treasury firm Upexi files to raise up to $1B. Former FTX US president raises $35M for his new venture. Other updates include ZKsync Era support ending on Etherscan and market analysis.

marsbit12/24 01:32

Crypto Morning Brief: Spot Gold Hits New High Again, Gnosis Hard Fork Recovers Hacked Balancer Funds

marsbit12/24 01:32

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