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Will Quantum Computing Kill Bitcoin and Mining? Is This Alarmist?

The article addresses the recurring concern that quantum computing could break Bitcoin's encryption and disrupt mining. It references a Google Quantum AI white paper from March 2026, which suggests that the resources needed for a quantum computer to crack Bitcoin’s elliptic curve digital signature algorithm (ECDSA) have been reduced by about 20 times. Under ideal conditions, such an attack could theoretically derive a private key from a public key in roughly 9 minutes using 500,000 physical qubits. However, the threat is not immediate. Current quantum processors, like Google’s Willow (105 qubits) or IBM’s Condor (~1,121 qubits), are far from the scale required. The risk primarily targets transaction signatures—especially during the brief window when a transaction is broadcast but not yet confirmed, or when public keys have been historically exposed. It is estimated there is only a 10% probability of a “quantum break” by 2032. The impact on mining is considered negligible. Research indicates that quantum mining would require astronomically high qubit counts and energy—far exceeding entire national grids—making it economically and physically infeasible. The broader solution lies in post-quantum cryptography (PQC). Standards like ML-DSA and SLH-DSA are being developed, and Bitcoin improvement proposals such as BIP 360 aim to reduce quantum vulnerability by modifying transaction structures to avoid exposing public keys. While quantum computing poses a future risk to all public-key encryption systems—not just Bitcoin—the cryptocurrency ecosystem has time to adapt. Upgrades and migration to quantum-resistant algorithms are underway, ensuring the network evolves ahead of the threat.

marsbit04/11 14:40

Will Quantum Computing Kill Bitcoin and Mining? Is This Alarmist?

marsbit04/11 14:40

Bitcoin May Avoid Immediate Quantum Upgrade With New Workaround: Study

A new study proposes a "Quantum Safe Bitcoin" (QSB) workaround that could protect new BTC transactions from quantum attacks without requiring a change to the Bitcoin protocol. Developed by StarkWare's Avihu Levy, the method operates within Bitcoin's existing rules, replacing elliptic curve math with a hash-to-signature puzzle that relies on brute-force computation, which is resistant to quantum attacks. This approach is praised by some, like StarkWare's CEO, as a way to make Bitcoin quantum-safe today. However, critics note it doesn't address vulnerabilities in existing exposed public keys or dormant wallets, which hold an estimated 1.7 million BTC. The scheme is also computationally expensive, costing $75-$150 per transaction, making it suitable only for large transfers and not for daily use or scaling solutions like the Lightning Network. While presented as a temporary fix, the researchers acknowledge that long-term protocol-level changes are still the preferred solution. The proposal emerges amid ongoing debate in the Bitcoin community about how to address quantum computing threats, following recent research that has intensified the discussion.

bitcoinist04/10 17:03

Bitcoin May Avoid Immediate Quantum Upgrade With New Workaround: Study

bitcoinist04/10 17:03

Bitcoin Braces For Quantum Shock — Inside Two Radical New Rescue Plans

The Bitcoin community is actively developing solutions to counter the future threat of quantum computers capable of breaking its current cryptography (ECDSA/Schnorr). Two primary proposals have emerged. The first, from Olaoluwa Osuntokun and Tim Ruffing, involves a "Taproot kill-switch" combined with a zk-STARK proof. This method would let users prove ownership of their coins from a vulnerable Taproot address without revealing their private keys, providing an escape hatch if a quantum-defense soft fork disables normal key-based spending. The second proposal, from Avihu Mordechai Levy, is called Quantum Safe Bitcoin (QSB). It uses Lamport-style one-time signatures and a new RIPEMD-160-based proof-of-work puzzle to make individual transactions quantum-safe today, without any changes to Bitcoin's base protocol. However, it is currently expensive and inefficient, costing hundreds of dollars per transaction. The debate has shifted from whether quantum is a threat to how to manage the migration. The community is split between solutions that aim to rescue the entire UTXO set and those who believe non-migrated coins should expire to preserve Bitcoin's monetary integrity.

bitcoinist04/10 14:02

Bitcoin Braces For Quantum Shock — Inside Two Radical New Rescue Plans

bitcoinist04/10 14:02

Native Account Abstraction + Quantum Resistance: Why Hasn't EIP-8141 Become the Headliner of Ethereum's Hegotá?

Brief: EIP-8141, a proposal for native account abstraction on Ethereum, was recently discussed by core developers but only received a "Considered for Inclusion" (CFI) status for the upcoming Hegotá upgrade, rather than being a headline feature. Despite having support from Vitalik Buterin, the proposal is considered too heavy for immediate implementation due to unresolved complexities in client implementation, transaction pool security, and validation. The proposal, named "Frame Transactions," introduces a new transaction type (0x06) that decouples the validation, payment, and execution of transactions into sequential "frames." This allows accounts to have programmable verification logic, enabling features like gas abstraction (e.g., paying fees with stablecoins), multi-operation batching, social recovery, and future-proofing against quantum threats by supporting alternative signature schemes beyond ECDSA. While EIP-8141 is backward compatible and wouldn’t require users to migrate existing wallets, its protocol-level changes are significant. The delay in full adoption reflects Ethereum’s cautious, incremental approach to upgrading its account model. The proposal highlights growing urgency around improving user experience and preparing for long-term security challenges, such as quantum computing, though it is not a finalized solution. The CFI status means it remains under active evaluation for future upgrades.

marsbit04/03 10:35

Native Account Abstraction + Quantum Resistance: Why Hasn't EIP-8141 Become the Headliner of Ethereum's Hegotá?

marsbit04/03 10:35

Bitcoin Bombshell: Google’s 2029 Quantum Warning Sparks New Fear

Google's updated quantum threat model, moving its post-quantum cryptography migration deadline to 2029, has significant implications for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. A new whitepaper from Google Quantum AI, alongside researchers including Justin Drake and Dan Boneh, suggests breaking the secp256k1 elliptic curve cryptography (used in Bitcoin) may require far fewer quantum resources than previously believed. The paper estimates Shor’s algorithm could break ECDSA keys in minutes using under 500,000 physical qubits. This has shifted the narrative, with experts now urging immediate transition plans. The paper highlights the risk of "on-spend" attacks against live transactions due to Bitcoin's 10-minute block time, while downplaying quantum risks to proof-of-work mining. Google chose to validate its findings via a zero-knowledge proof instead of full circuit disclosure, citing responsible disclosure concerns. The broader call is for vulnerable cryptocurrency communities to begin migrating to post-quantum cryptography without delay.

bitcoinist03/31 18:31

Bitcoin Bombshell: Google’s 2029 Quantum Warning Sparks New Fear

bitcoinist03/31 18:31

BIP-360 Explained: Bitcoin Takes Its First Step Towards Quantum Resistance, But Why Is It Only the 'First Step'?

BIP-360 introduces a quantum-resistant upgrade to Bitcoin by proposing Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR) scripts, which remove the key-path spending option in Taproot to minimize elliptic curve key exposure—a primary vulnerability in a future quantum computing scenario. This marks Bitcoin’s first formal step toward quantum defense, though it is a cautious and incremental update rather than a full cryptographic overhaul. P2MR retains support for complex scripts like multisig and timelocks via Taproot’s Merkle tree structure, ensuring smart contract flexibility. However, it does not upgrade existing UTXOs or replace ECDSA/Schnorr signatures with post-quantum alternatives. Wallets and services may gradually adopt P2MR addresses, but broader ecosystem coordination and user migration will be required over time. The proposal reflects Bitcoin’s proactive approach to long-term security amid advancing quantum computing research.

marsbit03/14 15:02

BIP-360 Explained: Bitcoin Takes Its First Step Towards Quantum Resistance, But Why Is It Only the 'First Step'?

marsbit03/14 15:02

The Quantum Computing Threat to Bitcoin

Bitcoin faces an existential threat from quantum computing, which could break the elliptic curve digital signature algorithm (ECDSA) securing the network. Approximately 25% of all bitcoin—including the 1.1 million BTC in Satoshi’s wallet—are stored in vulnerable early "pay-to-public-key" addresses, where public keys are exposed on the ledger. Later address types only reveal public keys during transactions, creating a brief attack window. The timeline for quantum computing is uncertain, but if it emerges before Bitcoin transitions to post-quantum cryptography (PQC), attackers could steal and liquidate billions in bitcoin, causing a market collapse. A coordinated migration to quantum-resistant algorithms is urgently needed, though implementing PQC could take 6 months to 2 years. A controversial proposal suggests "burning" un-migrated coins to prevent mass theft, but this risks setting a precedent for confiscation and contradicts Bitcoin’s core principles of individual sovereignty. As the largest financial "honeypot" with direct and liquid value, Bitcoin is a prime target. The network must proactively upgrade before quantum computers become capable of breaking current encryption.

marsbit02/02 12:13

The Quantum Computing Threat to Bitcoin

marsbit02/02 12:13

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