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How Long Will the Memory Boom Last?

"The semiconductor storage market is currently experiencing an unprecedented, explosive boom, primarily driven by DRAM and NAND flash. This growth, characterized by a near-vertical surge since 2024, is not due to a massive increase in shipment volume but rather an abnormal spike in prices—approximately a tenfold increase from 2025 to 2026 for both DRAM and NAND. This price surge stems from a severe supply-demand imbalance caused by massive capital investments from hyperscale data center operators (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta) building AI data centers, which act like a "black hole" consuming high-performance memory, particularly HBM. This redirects production capacity away from consumer electronics (PCs, smartphones), creating critical shortages and driving up prices further. The AI-driven boom has rendered previous market forecasts obsolete, with the global semiconductor market now projected to exceed $1.5 trillion by 2026, largely propelled by memory and logic (including GPUs). However, historical analysis of the memory market reveals a consistent pattern: periods of positive annual growth have never lasted more than five consecutive years, inevitably followed by a downturn due to the "silicon cycle" of overinvestment and subsequent oversupply. Given that the current upswing began around 2023, history suggests a peak is likely by 2027-2028. Furthermore, the higher the peak, the deeper the subsequent trough. The current 285% annual growth rate is a historical anomaly, implying the coming recession could be exceptionally severe. While memory manufacturers' stock prices and profits are currently soaring, the author urges the industry to prepare practically for the inevitable downturn while the boom continues."

链捕手07/14 14:50

How Long Will the Memory Boom Last?

链捕手07/14 14:50

Bittensor's Intellectual Arbitrage Trap: Capital Only Speculates on Tokens, Quality AI Goes Unpaid

The article critiques the inherent flaws in the Bittensor network's decentralized AI incentive model. While designed to use TAO tokens to reward AI development across specialized subnets (like model training or data crawling), the system prioritizes capital flow over genuine utility. A subnet's reward allocation is primarily determined by the price of its native Alpha token, creating a self-reinforcing loop where buying pressure begets more rewards, detached from the actual quality or real-world adoption of the AI services. Critical vulnerabilities are exposed: the scoring mechanism for AI outputs can be gamed if a majority of validators collude, and "score copying" among validators is possible. The network's value is anchored to speculative trading rather than verified user demand or revenue. Despite these issues, the author acknowledges Bittensor's potential to foster open, distributed AI infrastructure, similar to how past tech bubbles built lasting assets. The pending approval of Bittensor ETFs could bring both significant capital and necessary regulatory scrutiny, potentially forcing the ecosystem to mature and align incentives with tangible value creation.

Foresight News07/10 11:06

Bittensor's Intellectual Arbitrage Trap: Capital Only Speculates on Tokens, Quality AI Goes Unpaid

Foresight News07/10 11:06

Opinion: The AI Bubble in Stocks Has Arrived. Why I'm Turning to Bet on Bitcoin?

This article argues that the AI-driven stock market surge shows clear signs of a bubble. The author, citing Howard Marks' cycle theory, presents a checklist of behaviors signaling a market top—excessive optimism, easy capital, and the belief "no price is too high"—and finds the current AI stock mania matches most criteria. Consequently, the author has sold AI-related ETFs and shifted focus to accumulating Bitcoin within a $50k-$60k range, viewing it as a scarcer asset with a wider margin of safety amid high equity valuations. The piece contrasts the narrow, frothy AI rally with what it sees as a more rational long-term opportunity in Bitcoin, especially given indicators like high CAPE ratios and selective risk appetite. The author's personal strategy involves holding significant cash, with capital allocated across trading, long-term accumulation (primarily BTC), and illiquid investments.

marsbit07/02 02:55

Opinion: The AI Bubble in Stocks Has Arrived. Why I'm Turning to Bet on Bitcoin?

marsbit07/02 02:55

One Year After the Crash of Crypto Treasury Companies, Copycats Are Already Making a Comeback

One year after the collapse of digital asset treasury (DAT) companies, which wiped out up to 99% for early investors, the scheme has returned in a new guise. Recently, Triller Group announced it would become a "SpaceX treasury company," causing its market cap to surge. This follows the rebranding of another firm, LGHL, now targeting a token called HYPE. The original model, popularized by MicroStrategy (MSTR) and its "Bitcoin yield" narrative, saw companies trading at massive premiums to their underlying crypto holdings. However, most followers like TwentyOne, Metaplanet, and Nakamoto have crashed 80-95%+ from their peaks, erasing nearly all value for late investors. The author argues these structures have no fundamental reason to trade at premiums when low-fee Bitcoin ETFs or direct ownership exist. The cycle persists due to speculative demand driven by FOMO, gamification, and a belief the system is rigged, met by insiders and promoters who profit from the pump-and-dump dynamics. Drawing a parallel to the 1637 Tulip Mania, the piece concludes that such frenzies are not a bug but a recurring product of markets, where greater fools provide demand and insiders supply the schemes. Despite holding Bitcoin personally, the author condemns this specific packaging of assets into leveraged corporate vehicles marketed as innovation, a cycle seemingly unstoppable until a major crash.

marsbit06/29 03:42

One Year After the Crash of Crypto Treasury Companies, Copycats Are Already Making a Comeback

marsbit06/29 03:42

Global Tech Stocks Plunge: Another Stress Test for the AI Bull Market

Global tech stocks plummeted in a sharp selloff on June 23, with South Korea's KOSPI index crashing nearly 10%, triggering a trading halt. The plunge was led by semiconductor giants Samsung and SK Hynix, dragging down major Asian and US tech indexes and levered ETFs. The immediate trigger was a confluence of three signals within 24 hours: 1) reports that SK Hynix was slowing HBM4 expansion, raising doubts about a key AI chip bottleneck; 2) profit-taking ahead of Micron's earnings report after its massive year-to-date rally; and 3) a warning from Korean regulators about the risks of single-stock leveraged ETFs. The selloff's severity was amplified by Korea's uniquely leveraged market structure: record-high retail margin debt, over $30 billion in volatile single-stock leveraged ETFs requiring daily rebalancing (which creates selling pressure during declines), and the surprising shift of the National Pension Service from a net buyer to a net seller. The event reignited debates about an AI bubble. Analysts differed on timing—some warned of imminent rupture, others saw a temporary liquidity-driven correction—but agreed that sky-high valuations, a shift to retail/leveraged buying, and rising rates created a fragile setup. The parallel steep drop in SpaceX's stock, alongside its massive debt raise for AI infrastructure, underscored a broader market shift from narrative-driven "infinite imagination" to a "return on investment" calculation phase. All eyes are now on Micron's upcoming earnings report, seen as a key test for the AI hardware trade's fundamental logic. A strong report could stabilize markets, while a miss could validate deeper fears. The episode serves as a stark warning: when a bull run becomes dependent on leveraged bets on a single narrative, a violent and rapid correction should not be a surprise. The core question for investors is how much drawdown they are willing to tolerate to stay invested.

marsbit06/24 03:32

Global Tech Stocks Plunge: Another Stress Test for the AI Bull Market

marsbit06/24 03:32

Conversation with Jason Huang, Founder of NDV: Puncturing the AI Bubble and the MicroStrategy Myth, Searching for the Ultimate Trump Card in the Crypto Market

In a podcast interview, NDV founder Jason Huang discusses the recent crypto market downturn, attributing the initial phase to typical Bitcoin cycle selling pressure, now compounded by a US stock market correction, tightening liquidity, and MicroStrategy's financial strain. He argues the market hasn't bottomed yet, noting true bear market lows often require a major, despair-inducing event like FTX's collapse. Huang details MicroStrategy's precarious position: its debt-and-equity fueled Bitcoin buying model has reversed into a negative cycle as prices fell. He interprets its sale of just 32 BTC as a signal prioritizing creditors over shareholders, sparking market "front-running" of its larger potential sell-off. A true bottom may arrive only after MicroStrategy resolves its looming debt payments, possibly via a large, private Bitcoin sale. His fund is up ~20% this year, outperforming Bitcoin by 50-60%, by shorting crypto and trading commodities like oil and gold. He avoided AI stocks despite being a heavy user, citing a lack of trading edge in the crowded semiconductor hardware trade, which he views as ripe for a significant correction. Long-term, Huang remains bullish on stablecoins as crypto's clearest, most practical innovation with high growth potential. He is very bearish on Ethereum and skeptical that Bitcoin has found its floor, suggesting $48,000 may not hold. He expects a sharp decline followed by a strong recovery within a year, but only after a major panic event leads to widespread capitulation and despair—the true hallmark of a market bottom.

链捕手06/24 01:36

Conversation with Jason Huang, Founder of NDV: Puncturing the AI Bubble and the MicroStrategy Myth, Searching for the Ultimate Trump Card in the Crypto Market

链捕手06/24 01:36

GLM Hits a Trillion, Will DeepSeek Be Far Behind?

Zhipu AI, a Chinese AI company, has reached a market capitalization exceeding HK$1 trillion, with its stock rising over 1900% this year. Its valuation now rivals half of Alibaba's, highlighting intense market speculation around Chinese AI firms. Despite 2025 revenues of only ¥7.24 billion and a net loss of ¥47.18 billion, investors are pricing in massive future growth, driven by its GLM-5.2 model and its positioning as China's potential answer to Anthropic. The surge reflects a broader trend: soaring valuations for AI companies across primary and secondary markets. DeepSeek's latest funding round valued it over $50 billion, while other players like MiniMax and StepFun are also targeting listings. This capital influx is concentrated in hard tech and AI within Hong Kong's IPO market. However, concerns about a bubble are mounting. Zhipu's high valuation, volatile trading, and impending share lock-up expiries pose near-term risks. The core challenge for Zhipu and its peers is transforming advanced model capabilities into sustainable revenue and profit, following the path of Anthropic which is nearing operational profitability. The trillion-HK dollar mark for Zhipu represents a symbolic peak for China's AI industry, but its permanence hinges on demonstrable commercial success.

marsbit06/22 23:23

GLM Hits a Trillion, Will DeepSeek Be Far Behind?

marsbit06/22 23:23

With SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic Listing in Succession, Can the Market Really Absorb Them?

The article analyzes the market's capacity to absorb the concurrent mega-IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, which could collectively seek over $200 billion from public markets—more than four times the total U.S. IPO volume in 2025. SpaceX, already public at a $2.1 trillion valuation, demonstrated strong demand with significant oversubscription. Anthropic, targeting a Q4 2026 listing, presents a compelling financial story with rapid revenue growth and a projected first quarterly operating profit. OpenAI, however, faces the greatest scrutiny due to its high cash burn and lack of profitability, with its eventual financial disclosures posing a key risk to its ~$1 trillion target valuation. Wall Street sentiment is divided: bulls point to ample liquidity in money markets and pent-up demand for pure-play AI stocks, while bears warn of a liquidity drain and risk transfer from private to public investors. A "capitulation long" mindset—participating despite bubble concerns—is also noted. The author concludes the market has the appetite for individual offerings, as shown by SpaceX. The real test will be whether OpenAI and Anthropic's financial fundamentals can support their valuations upon public scrutiny. The ultimate question for AI valuations remains whether enterprise adoption translates to tangible cost savings or revenue generation.

marsbit06/18 10:15

With SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic Listing in Succession, Can the Market Really Absorb Them?

marsbit06/18 10:15

Won't US Stocks Ever Fall Again? The 'Great Melt-up' Trap in the Era of High Debt

The article analyzes a popular theory circulating online that the U.S. stock market may be mathematically incapable of a true, sustained decline due to the country's massive and growing national debt. The argument suggests that the government's only path to managing this debt is through inflation and money printing, which would nominally lift asset prices like stocks, creating a perpetual "melt-up." The author places this idea within the historical context of market melt-ups, such as the dot-com bubble and Japan's asset bubble, where prices detach from fundamentals driven by momentum and FOMO. While acknowledging that a high-debt environment creates incentives for inflation, which is generally favorable for assets over cash, the article refutes key claims of the online theory. It clarifies that interest payments are not about to exceed GDP, that printing money is not the only option for the government, and that stocks do not reliably rise in lockstep with hyperinflation, citing historical examples from Germany, Zimbabwe, and Venezuela. The more probable outcome, according to the author, is a prolonged period of financial repression—moderate inflation above interest rates that slowly erodes debt and cash purchasing power, leading to nominally higher asset prices but potentially lower real returns. The core warning is that while long-term market trends may be upward, this does not eliminate the risk of significant interim crashes (30%, 40%, or more) or guarantee real wealth creation during inflationary times. The conclusion advises against betting one's entire financial future on a smooth, perpetually rising market narrative. Instead, it recommends a disciplined, diversified strategy involving productive assets (stocks, real estate, some gold, short-term bonds) and an adequate cash buffer to avoid forced selling during downturns. The key takeaway is to avoid extreme concentration in expensive assets and leverage, and not to base investment decisions on the hope that every market dip will inevitably be rescued.

marsbit06/17 10:11

Won't US Stocks Ever Fall Again? The 'Great Melt-up' Trap in the Era of High Debt

marsbit06/17 10:11

Conversation with Arthur Hayes: AI Has Drained Market Liquidity, BTC Will Be Below 100k by Year-End

In this June 2026 podcast interview, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes explains his decision to sell his major crypto holdings (HYPE, NEAR, Worldcoin, Zcash). His rationale is based on a macro view linking oil prices, the Iran conflict, US politics, and an impending AI bubble burst. Hayes argues that high oil prices, driven by the ongoing war, will pressure domestic US inflation. To salvage the Republican Party's chances in the midterm elections, he believes Donald Trump may pivot to a populist, anti-AI stance—advocating for taxes and regulation—which would deflate the AI investment narrative. He sees the AI sector, particularly massive capital expenditure on data centers, as having absorbed nearly all excess market liquidity (around $1.5 trillion in debt issuance since 2025), starving other assets like Bitcoin. He highlights the upcoming SpaceX IPO at a ~$1.8 trillion valuation and 100x price-to-sales ratio as a potential tipping point. If these hyped IPOs underperform, it could shatter market confidence in AI. In such a scenario, all risk assets, including crypto, would fall together as correlations converge to 1 during a broad correction. Hayes has moved his portfolio into Treasuries and energy stocks (like ExxonMobil), predicting Bitcoin will be below $100k by year-end. He sees a potential crypto bull market only after the AI frenzy cools, liquidity stops flowing exclusively into AI, and possibly after a significant market downturn prompts new monetary stimulus.

marsbit06/17 06:23

Conversation with Arthur Hayes: AI Has Drained Market Liquidity, BTC Will Be Below 100k by Year-End

marsbit06/17 06:23

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