Kalshi Trading Volume Continues to Break Records, What Is the Reasonable Pre-Market Stock Price?

marsbitPublicado a 2026-02-11Actualizado a 2026-02-11

Resumen

Amidst a declining crypto market, prediction markets have emerged as a standout sector. Kalshi, the largest regulated prediction market platform in the U.S., reached a record monthly trading volume exceeding $9.5 billion in January, sparking renewed interest in its pre-IPO stock pricing. Current pre-IPO share prices for Kalshi show significant discrepancies across platforms. On PreStocks, prices are around $369 (implied market cap) and $364 (capitalization-based). In contrast, Jarsy lists a price of approximately $504 per share. Meanwhile, traditional financial markets like Nasdaq Private Market and Hiive show prices around $320 and $358, respectively. Kalshi completed a Series E funding round last year at an $11 billion valuation. Based on this, a reasonable pre-IPO share price range is estimated to be $320–$358. However, considering its surging trading volume and a projected market capitalization of at least $15 billion, a more optimistic price range of $358–$423 is plausible. This suggests Jarsy's current pricing may be high, while PreStocks might present an arbitrage opportunity. With major sporting events in 6 expected to boost activity, Kalshi's annual revenue potential is significant, potentially exceeding earlier estimates for competitor Polymarket, which could further drive up its pre-IPO valuation.

Original|Odaily Planet Daily(@OdailyChina)

Author|Wenser(@wenser 2010)

During the market downturn, prediction markets have become the most eye-catching sector in the crypto market. In early February, when the market plummeted, BTC and ETH once fell by more than 10%, but prediction market trading remained active, with weekly transactions reaching 26.39 million, a record high. At the same time, as the largest compliant prediction market platform in the United States, Kalshi also surged to the top of the sector with over $9.5 billion in trading volume in January, setting a new historical high for monthly trading volume. This has led to a new round of market pricing for Kalshi's pre-market stock.

Today, the question we are discussing is—what should be the reasonable price range for the pre-market stock of Kalshi, which is expected to become the "first stock in the prediction market"?

Overview of Current Pricing on Tokenized Stock Trading Platforms: PreStocks, Jarsy

As of the time of writing, there is a significant price difference for Kalshi's pre-market stock on two major tokenized stock trading platforms:

On the PreStocks platform, the pre-market pricing for Kalshi stock includes two prices—

One price is the token price under the implied market capitalization (market liquidity pricing level), with a per-share price of around $369;

The other price is the marked price under the capital market capitalization (existing financing pricing level), with a per-share price of around $364.

On the Jarsy platform, the pre-market per-share price for Kalshi has already risen to around $504.

It is worth mentioning that compared to the time when we previously wrote the article "Kalshi's Pre-Market Stock Price Soars, Is It Still Worth Buying Now?", the pre-market prices for Kalshi stock on both platforms have experienced varying degrees of increases and decreases. The price situation at that time was as follows:

  • On PreStocks, Kalshi's implied market capitalization was approximately $14 billion, with a per-share price of around $407;
  • On Jarsy, Kalshi's market valuation was $11 billion, with a per-share price of $450.

In other words, the price on the PreStocks platform dropped from $407 to around $369; while the price on the Jarsy platform rose from $450 to around $504.

For comparison, the pre-market pricing for Kalshi stock in traditional financial markets has also changed—

  • On Nasdaq Private Market, Kalshi's per-share price rose from around $307 to around $320;

  • On Hiive, Kalshi's per-share price increased by $1 from around $357 to around $358.

Reasonable Pre-Market Pricing Range for Kalshi Stock: Around $320~$423

Last year, Kalshi completed a $1 billion Series E financing round with a valuation of $11 billion.

Based on the market capitalization and corresponding stock prices mentioned above, the number of Kalshi shares is approximately between 30.72 million and 34.30 million.

Specifically, the number of shares is calculated as follows—
Based on a $11 billion market capitalization corresponding to the traditional financial market pre-market prices of $320 and $358, the number of Kalshi shares is approximately 30.72 million to 34.37 million;
Based on the implied market capitalization/token price and capital market capitalization/marked price on the PreStocks platform, the number of Kalshi shares is approximately 34.27 million to 34.30 million;
Based on the pre-market purchase price per share on the Jarsy platform, Kalshi's market capitalization is capped at $18.665 billion, with a per-share price of $604.84, and the number of shares is approximately 30.86 million.

Based on the above information, we can make the following deductions:

First, based on the $11 billion valuation, the reasonable pre-market pricing range for Kalshi stock is approximately $320-$358. In other words, the current pricing on crypto market tokenized stock trading platforms such as PreStocks and Jarsy is relatively high;

Second, Kalshi's trading volume in January reached $9.5 billion, close to the overall prediction market size of about $10 billion in October last year; in October last year, its market share was about 50% of the prediction market. From this perspective, Kalshi's current capital market valuation is at least above $15 billion.

Third, based on a $15 billion valuation and combined with data such as the range of Kalshi's share count, the pre-market pricing range for Kalshi stock is approximately $436~$488.

Thus, if the number of Kalshi shares meets expectations, and under the premise of a $15 billion implied market capitalization, conservatively estimated, the reasonable pre-market pricing range for Kalshi stock may be $320~$378 (calculated based on the average of the lowest prices in the pricing range); optimistically estimated, the reasonable pre-market pricing range for Kalshi stock may be $358~$423 (calculated based on the average of the highest prices in the pricing range).

Based on the above data conclusions, the pre-market pricing for Kalshi stock on the Jarsy platform is relatively high, while the PreStocks platform offers some arbitrage opportunities.

In addition, the latest tokenized stock trading platform, Tessera, plans to open equity public offerings in the future, which readers can also consider as an alternative reference (invitation code can be found here).

Combined with the relevant information mentioned in the previously published article by Odaily Planet Daily, "Data Calculation Shows Polymarket's Annual Revenue Exceeding $100 Million Is Not Difficult, Provided That...":

Based on a static calculation of the trading volume and fee ratio in the "15-minute cryptocurrency rise and fall" market on Polymarket, under the current trading volume level and structure, if Polymarket introduces a similar fee model in all markets, it is expected to generate $418 million in annual revenue for the platform.

As a prediction market platform with larger trading volume and higher fees, and taking advantage of the timing of the major sports year in 2026, Kalshi's annual revenue is expected to exceed this estimated revenue of Polymarket. From this perspective, the capital market may further raise the pre-market pricing of Kalshi stock in the future.

Preguntas relacionadas

QWhat is the current pre-market stock price range for Kalshi on PreStocks and Jarsy platforms?

AOn PreStocks, the pre-market stock price for Kalshi is around $369 (implied market cap) and $364 (capital market cap). On Jarsy, the pre-market price is around $504.

QWhat was the valuation of Kalshi after its Series E funding round last year?

AKalshi completed a $1 billion Series E funding round last year, valuing the company at $11 billion.

QWhat is the estimated reasonable pre-market stock price range for Kalshi based on a $11 billion valuation?

ABased on a $11 billion valuation, the estimated reasonable pre-market stock price range for Kalshi is approximately $320 to $358.

QWhat is the optimistic estimated pre-market stock price range for Kalshi if its implied market cap reaches $15 billion?

AIf Kalshi's implied market cap reaches $15 billion, the optimistic estimated pre-market stock price range is approximately $358 to $423.

QHow does the article suggest Kalshi's future annual revenue might compare to Polymarket's estimated revenue?

AThe article suggests that Kalshi's annual revenue is expected to surpass Polymarket's estimated $418 million annual revenue, especially with the advantage of the 2026 major sports year.

Lecturas Relacionadas

STAR 50 Soars 10.73%, Why Did A-Shares Stage a "V-Shaped Reversal"?

After a prolonged decline, the Chinese A-share market staged a strong rally on July 21. The STAR 50 index surged 10.73%, its largest single-day gain in nearly a year, leading a broad-based "V-shaped" reversal. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.79%, the Shenzhen Component Index gained 4.81%, and the ChiNext Index jumped 7.05%. Total market turnover reached 2.97 trillion yuan, an increase of 256.1 billion yuan from the previous session, with over 3,100 stocks advancing. The semiconductor sector spearheaded the rebound, with related ETFs posting significant gains. Analysts attribute the surge to three converging factors. First, coordinated capital inflows from "national team" institutions, insurance funds, listed company buybacks, and fund house self-purchases have bolstered market liquidity and confidence. Second, supportive policy signals, including commitments from regulators to ensure stable market operations, provided a favorable backdrop. Third, a stabilization and recovery in overseas markets, notably South Korea, created a positive external environment. Institutions suggest the most severe panic selling phase for the tech sector has likely passed, following a significant digestion of crowded positions and leveraged funds. While short-term volatility may persist, the medium to long-term outlook remains underpinned by enduring trends like AI computing demand expansion and semiconductor localization. The market's focus now shifts to the sustainability of supportive fund flows, earnings reports, and upcoming catalysts from the global AI industry chain.

marsbitHace 38 min(s)

STAR 50 Soars 10.73%, Why Did A-Shares Stage a "V-Shaped Reversal"?

marsbitHace 38 min(s)

U.S. Tech Momentum Stocks Post Largest Single-Day Gain Ever, But Is the Plunge Over?

US tech momentum stocks staged a sharp rebound on Tuesday (July 21st). Morgan Stanley's TMT Momentum Factor surged over 12%, marking its largest single-day gain on record, exceeding even peaks from the 2000 dot-com bubble. Key momentum indices from Goldman Sachs also posted their strongest daily performances in years. The rally was led by semiconductors, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumping 4.6%. This rebound followed three consecutive down days and a cumulative 33% plunge in momentum stocks, one of the steepest drawdowns since the dot-com era. Analysts attribute the surge largely to a short squeeze. Heavy selling had pushed high-beta momentum stocks into deeply oversold territory, forcing many short sellers, particularly in Asia, to cover their positions, creating a self-reinforcing buying spiral. However, the rebound's internals appear weak. Trading volume was notably low, and advancing stocks still lagged decliners on the S&P 500, indicating a narrow, concentrated rally rather than broad market participation. Diverging views emerge on the outlook. BTIG warns the bounce has hit key resistance and recommends selling into strength, citing extreme volatility and historical parallels to past market tops. Conversely, Goldman Sachs and UBS believe the momentum unwind is nearing its end, suggesting it may be time to gradually add exposure, as positioning has been significantly reduced. They caution, however, that high volatility warrants a measured approach, potentially using defined-risk strategies. The upcoming earnings season, particularly reports from major tech firms like Alphabet, is seen as a critical test for the rally's sustainability. Simultaneously, bond markets flashed a warning, with yields rising partly due to spiking oil prices. Analysts note that if long-term Treasury yields break decisively higher, it could pose a significant headwind for equities, especially growth stocks.

marsbitHace 45 min(s)

U.S. Tech Momentum Stocks Post Largest Single-Day Gain Ever, But Is the Plunge Over?

marsbitHace 45 min(s)

U.S. Tech Momentum Stocks Record Largest Single-Day Gain Ever, but Has the Rout Ended?

U.S. tech momentum stocks staged a dramatic rebound on Tuesday, July 21st. Key momentum indices like the Morgan Stanley TMT Momentum Factor and Goldman Sachs' High Beta Momentum Long Index posted historic or near-historic single-day gains, fueled largely by semiconductor stocks. This sharp rally followed a severe three-day sell-off that saw momentum stocks plunge 33%, marking one of the steepest pullbacks since the dot-com bubble. Analysts attribute the bounce primarily to a short squeeze, as forced covering from over-leveraged traders, particularly in Asia, created a buying spiral. However, the rally's health is questioned due to weak market breadth—overall trading volume was low, and decliners outnumbered advancers in the S&P 500 despite the index's gain—suggesting a narrow, concentrated surge rather than broad recovery. Opinions on the sustainability diverge. BTIG strategists warn the rebound has hit key resistance levels, citing extreme volatility and historic stock dispersion as signs of an ongoing broader correction, and recommend selling into strength. Conversely, Goldman Sachs and UBS view the aggressive momentum unwinding as nearing its end, noting reduced positioning and a lack of new fundamental catalysts. They suggest the sell-off presents a selective opportunity to add exposure, albeit cautiously and gradually using defined-risk strategies. The immediate trajectory hinges on the ongoing earnings season, with market focus on Alphabet's capital expenditure guidance for AI investment clarity. Meanwhile, bond markets present a risk, with rising Treasury yields—potentially heading toward 5.5%—and widening credit spreads for mega-cap tech companies posing a threat to equity valuations. The combination of technical factors, earnings results, and macro conditions leaves the durability of the rebound in doubt.

链捕手Hace 47 min(s)

U.S. Tech Momentum Stocks Record Largest Single-Day Gain Ever, but Has the Rout Ended?

链捕手Hace 47 min(s)

Bitcoin flashes 3 macro-bottom signals – But can BTC reach $70K?

The article discusses Bitcoin's recent price movement above $66,000 and a shift in market analysis from focusing on a local bottom to a potential macro-cycle bottom. It cites a crypto analyst noting that BTC has flashed three historical technical signals that previously coincided with major market bottoms in 2015, 2019, and 2022, suggesting the current zone could be a strong long-term accumulation area. However, the article also highlights a significant challenge: despite the price breakout, on-chain data shows a lack of supporting liquidity. Stablecoin dominance is rising while the total stablecoin market cap is shrinking, with capital continuing to leave exchanges. This divergence indicates that while the technical setup is bullish, the rally may struggle to sustain enough momentum for a decisive move into the $70,000 region without an influx of fresh capital.

ambcryptoHace 50 min(s)

Bitcoin flashes 3 macro-bottom signals – But can BTC reach $70K?

ambcryptoHace 50 min(s)

Long-Divided Must Unite, Long-United Must Divide: When L1 Becomes Its Own Rollup, What Is Ethereum's Endgame?

"The Inevitable Cycle: When L1 Becomes Its Own Rollup – What is Ethereum's Endgame?" For years, the Ethereum community grappled with concerns that L2s were fragmenting the ecosystem and eroding L1's value. While L2s provided cheaper execution, they also splintered liquidity and the unified user experience of a single chain. This has prompted a fundamental reassessment of the relationship between L1 and L2. Ethereum's roadmap is evolving. The "Scale" initiative merges L1 and L2 expansion into a holistic framework. L1 itself is advancing with higher gas limits, statelessness, and zkEVM verification, no longer content to be just a low-throughput settlement layer. Consequently, the primary value proposition of L2s is shifting from merely providing cheap blockspace to offering L1 cannot easily provide: application-specific optimizations, privacy features, and flexible governance models. L2s are becoming a spectrum of execution environments with varying degrees of security inheritance from Ethereum. A critical challenge in this multi-chain future is interoperability. The vision is to make Ethereum "feel like one chain again." This relies on advancements in native account abstraction (like EIP-7702) and intent-based architectures (Open Intents Framework), where users declare desired outcomes, and solvers handle the complex cross-chain execution. Furthermore, shortening Ethereum's finality time from minutes to seconds is crucial, as it underpins trust between chains for bridges, stablecoins, and cross-chain applications. Perhaps the most provocative idea is that Ethereum L1 itself could become a form of "its own Rollup." As zkEVM and proof systems mature, high-performance nodes could execute transactions and generate validity proofs. Regular validators would then verify these proofs instead of re-executing all transactions. This blurs the traditional L1/L2 hierarchy, making "Rollup" more of a general execution-verification architecture. Native Rollup aims to integrate L2 validation more directly into the Ethereum protocol, allowing L2s to inherit L1's security more fully and move away from reliance on security councils. In the end, L2s are not destined to replace L1 or be made obsolete by it. The likely future is a unified system where diverse execution environments—each optimized for specific use cases like DeFi, gaming, or privacy—coexist. They will share a common foundation of security, liquidity, and verifiable state, seamlessly connected to restore a cohesive user experience. The next phase for Ethereum is not just about scaling through separation, but about intelligently reintegrating what was separated back into a coherent whole.

链捕手Hace 1 hora(s)

Long-Divided Must Unite, Long-United Must Divide: When L1 Becomes Its Own Rollup, What Is Ethereum's Endgame?

链捕手Hace 1 hora(s)

Trading

Spot
活动图片