Trading StrategiesNoticias

Shares practical strategies, techniques, and risk management methods. By combining market case studies with technical analysis, it helps traders optimize decision-making and enhance profitability.

Crystal Foresight Stablecoin Industry Report: What Drove the Q2 2026 Decline in Stablecoin Supply

Stablecoin total supply declined by approximately $115 billion (-3.6%) over 90 days, falling from a May high of $3.2 trillion to $3.065 trillion in July 2026. This marks the first quarterly contraction since late 2023. The decline was highly concentrated: USDC (-$5.8B), USDe (-$2.0B), USDS (-$2.0B), USDT (-$1.4B), and PYUSD (-$1.2B) accounted for nearly all net outflows. Gold-backed tokens PAXG and XAUt also declined, primarily due to a drop in gold prices, a separate dynamic from dollar-pegged stablecoins. A core finding is that each stablecoin's decline had distinct drivers tied to its primary use case ("transfer fingerprint"): - **USDC** (dominant use: DeFi collateral) contracted due to cooling DeFi activity. - **USDe & USDS** (yield-bearing stablecoins) shrank as underlying protocols (Ethena, Sky) reduced yields, prompting redemptions. - **USDT** (payments/trading) saw a marginal, strategic reduction linked to European exchange delistings, not yield pressure. - **PYUSD** dropped amid regulatory uncertainty and a strategic refocus by PayPal. Some growth occurred (USDG, DAI, etc.), but it was far smaller than the outflows. The report concludes the decline is largely linked to reduced yields and DeFi cycles, not a loss of confidence or de-pegs. A reversal is possible if on-chain yields improve. Future signals will be found in "yield fingerprints" and "collateral fingerprints," not just headline supply figures.

链捕手Hace 18 hora(s)

Crystal Foresight Stablecoin Industry Report: What Drove the Q2 2026 Decline in Stablecoin Supply

链捕手Hace 18 hora(s)

Decentralization Is Not Idealism

Decentralization Is Not Idealism The core argument is that in the era of programmable, global settlement systems, decentralization is the single most critical feature for long-term survival and success—not an idealistic luxury, but a practical necessity rooted in a cynical understanding of power and incentives. The author, a former crypto expert at Citi, positions himself not as an idealist but as a realist informed by history. He observes that any sufficiently large and valuable network inherently creates massive incentives for its own corruption and capture by powerful incumbents (corporations, governments) seeking to protect profits and power. The pattern is consistent: first try to stop a disruptive technology; if that fails, co-opt it. Therefore, only crypto systems built from day one to be maximally open, neutral, and permissionless have a chance to reach "escape velocity" and resist this inevitable pressure. The essay critiques "permissioned networks," highly centralized "permissionless" Layer-1s, and Layer-2s with single sequencers as fundamentally naive. These are essentially "databases with an off-switch" that will be captured, rendering them inferior to both traditional efficient systems and truly decentralized alternatives. Historical examples like Visa, Mastercard, and Google are cited to illustrate the "platform corruption" trajectory, where networks originally built as neutral utilities evolved into profit-maximizing, gatekeeping entities. The potential market for a general-purpose L1 blockchain (encompassing finance, social, gaming, identity, etc.) is so vast that the incentive for capture is even greater. The piece uses a rhetorical question: if you were the CEO of a profitable payment company, would you embrace a public, permissionless blockchain that gives your competitors equal footing, or would you support a "hybrid" alternative that lets you retain control and pricing power? The answer, driven by competitive instinct, is obvious. While incumbents may temporarily promote "pseudo-decentralized" solutions as a delaying tactic, the author argues these are objectively worse—less efficient than legacy systems and less secure than real decentralization. In the long run, assets and value will naturally flow to the most secure, censorship-resistant infrastructure, just as water flows to the lowest point. Systems like Ethereum, despite their flaws and costs, represent this necessary, realistic defense against capture and are ultimately superior to any corporate-controlled alternative.

链捕手07/24 06:50

Decentralization Is Not Idealism

链捕手07/24 06:50

One On-Chain Transfer Could Lead to 14 Years in Prison? UK Crypto Compliance Faces New Risks

A blockchain transfer could now lead to a 14-year prison sentence in the UK, following the designation of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) under the National Security Act 2023. A new criminal offense (Section 17C) makes it illegal for UK-linked persons or entities to obtain, receive, or retain any valuable benefit if they know, or should reasonably know, it originates from a designated entity like the IRGC. This applies broadly to crypto assets and on-chain transfers. The key challenge lies in timing and knowledge. A transfer can settle on-chain before the recipient identifies the sending wallet, and wallet attribution to a sanctioned entity may only occur post-transaction. Liability depends on what the recipient knew about the source of funds and when they knew it. The offense follows the value, not the payment path, and can involve indirect provision through intermediaries. While the designation itself doesn't trigger automatic asset freezes under UK sanctions law, it creates a separate criminal risk. For UK crypto exchanges, custodians, payment firms, and even users, this makes maintaining clear records of wallet attribution, transaction timelines, and subsequent actions critical for evidence. The law does not impose new reporting duties but emphasizes using existing suspicious activity reporting and consent processes. The lack of ability to reject on-chain transactions makes documented internal controls and decision-making timelines vital for legal defense.

marsbit07/20 08:26

One On-Chain Transfer Could Lead to 14 Years in Prison? UK Crypto Compliance Faces New Risks

marsbit07/20 08:26

DeepSeek V4 'Full-Blooded Edition' Leaked, Could Be Released As Early As Tomorrow

The highly anticipated full release of DeepSeek V4 is imminent, expected to launch as early as tomorrow after nearly three months of waiting. A select group has already received access to the GA (General Availability) beta, which includes two versions: DeepSeek V4 Flash and DeepSeek V4 Pro. Early testers report that V4's overall performance is close to the level of Opus 4.8, with coding capabilities rivaling GPT-5.6 Sol. Its agent abilities are significantly enhanced, and 3D/SVG generation has improved notably. While it may not surpass the recently released Kimi K3 in performance, its expected price point is significantly lower. The official release will introduce a new "peak/off-peak" pricing model for its API. For example, deepseek-v4-pro will cost $0.87 per million output tokens during standard times and $1.74 during peak hours. The flash version is even more aggressive at $0.28/$0.56 per million tokens, with cached input tokens priced extremely low at $0.0028. This makes V4 a strong contender in terms of cost-effectiveness, potentially offering Opus-level capabilities at a fraction of the cost, continuing DeepSeek's reputation as a "price disruptor" in the AI market. Initial demos showcasing V4's capabilities have begun circulating, including generated 3D simulation games, HTML games blending elements of Minecraft and No Man's Sky, and classic games like a "Cut the Rope" clone. The final GA version is set to replace the older deepseek-chat and deepseek-reasoner models, which will be retired on July 24th.

marsbit07/19 05:31

DeepSeek V4 'Full-Blooded Edition' Leaked, Could Be Released As Early As Tomorrow

marsbit07/19 05:31

From StepFun to Galaxy Robots: The Capital Migration Path Behind WAIC Exhibiting Companies

From Stellar Steps to Galactic Generals: The Capital Migration Route Behind WAIC 2026 Exhibiting Enterprises The 2026 World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) in Shanghai showcased over 1100 exhibitors. Analyzing their financing activities over the past 18 months reveals key capital trends in China's AI industry, with the total raised exceeding 100 billion RMB. **Large Language Models: IPO Window Opens, Capital Concentrates on Leaders** This sector attracted the most capital. Companies like Zhipu and MiniMax have completed Hong Kong IPOs, setting exit benchmarks. StepFun (Stellar Steps), a star example, saw its valuation soar to an estimated $12B through rapid, escalating funding rounds—from millions in 2023 to a $2.5B Pre-IPO round in mid-2026 led by industrial players like ZTE. The trend shows a shift: IPO paths are clear, industrial capital is entering for strategic deployment, and large, concentrated funding rounds favor commercially viable leaders. **Embodied AI: Hyper-Compressed Financing Cycles** This field entered a capital explosion phase. Companies like Galbot (Galactic General) epitomize the trend, raising over 7B RMB across 5 rounds in under 2 years. Early VC backing quickly gave way to investments from industrial giants (Meituan, CATL, SAIC) and finally "national team" funds, signaling its status as a strategic industry. The compressed fundraising pace, as seen with other leaders, indicates high consensus on the sector's potential and intense competition. **AI Chips: Domestic Substitution Enters Deep Waters** Represented by companies like Moore Threads (which completed an 8B RMB IPO as the "first domestic GPU stock"), this sector differs. It faces longer R&D cycles, higher capital thresholds, and stronger policy reliance. Funding often involves state-backed capital and telecom operators, with lower VC participation compared to other AI sectors, reflecting the industry's inherent challenges. **Capital Flow Panorama: Five Key Trends** 1. **Winner-Takes-Most:** Funding is highly concentrated in top players within each sector. 2. **Embodied AI as a New Growth Pole:** It attracts rapid, large-scale funding from industrial chains, akin to the automotive sector. 3. **Industrial Capital Ascendancy:** Strategic investors like ZTE and SAIC are replacing pure financial VCs for technology synergy. 4. **"National Team" Prominence:** State-guided investment funds are actively co-investing, aligning AI with national strategy. 5. **Diversified Exit Paths:** Beyond IPOs, options like M&A and strategic investment are increasing. **Conclusion: Capital is Not Omnipotent** While massive capital influx signals strong market confidence in China's AI outlook, it brings risks: reduced ecosystem diversity due to concentration, potential compromise of corporate independence, and valuation bubble concerns amidst compressed financing. The investor's motive behind a company often reveals more than its technical specs.

marsbit07/17 12:11

From StepFun to Galaxy Robots: The Capital Migration Path Behind WAIC Exhibiting Companies

marsbit07/17 12:11

Who Is Shaping Ethereum's Future: The Takeover by Token-Holding Companies Could Be the Best Thing for ETH in Years

**Title: Who is Building Ethereum's Future? Corporate ETH Holders Take Over Funding, Possibly the Best Thing for ETH in Years.** **Summary:** The Ethereum Foundation is scaling back due to fiscal concerns, but publicly traded companies holding large amounts of ETH, like Bitmine and SharpLink, are stepping in to fund protocol development. These firms collectively hold nearly 5% of ETH's circulating supply and are using their staking yields to pay for R&D. Unlike MicroStrategy, which merely accumulates Bitcoin, these ETH treasury companies are reinvesting profits directly into the protocol's development—potentially allowing all ETH holders to benefit from this free "spillover." Key drivers for this shift include these companies' stalled business model. Their "flywheel" of issuing stock to buy more ETH broke as their stock prices fell below the net value of their crypto holdings (mNAV < 1). With their ETH holdings also deeply underwater, simply waiting for price appreciation failed. By funding Ethereum's roadmap—through new non-profits like ETH Labs and Ethereum Institutional—they aim to increase the utility and value of the underlying asset that dominates their balance sheets. This creates a new alignment of interests: these companies are highly incentivized to see Ethereum succeed and are less likely to sell en masse. However, risks remain. The exact funding amounts are undisclosed, and these treasury firms themselves are vulnerable if ETH prices fall further, which could halt their contributions. **Additional Context:** The article also contrasts Jito's new "token-centric" proposal (JIP-38), which credibly directs platform fees to token buybacks, with Venice's less concrete promises, highlighting the importance of where revenue legally lands and who controls the mechanisms. Other notable industry updates include the rise of TradFi perpetuals on Hyperliquid, new Bitcoin staking via Stacks, and various DeFi product launches.

marsbit07/17 07:48

Who Is Shaping Ethereum's Future: The Takeover by Token-Holding Companies Could Be the Best Thing for ETH in Years

marsbit07/17 07:48

活动图片