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Memory Card Prices Double in Four Months: How Long Will the Surge Last?

NAND flash memory prices have entered a rapid upward cycle, with consumer-grade storage products like microSD cards seeing significant retail price increases. For example, a SanDisk Extreme 128GB microSD card rose from $17 in October 2025 to nearly $40 by February 2026—a 130% surge in under four months. This price surge is driven by structural shifts in the NAND market, primarily due to soaring demand from AI data centers. These large-scale buyers are securing the majority of NAND wafer supply through long-term contracts, leaving limited inventory for the consumer market. According to TrendForce, NAND contract prices rose 55–60% in Q1 2026, with enterprise SSD prices climbing 53–58%. Retail prices rose even more sharply due to constrained supply in the distribution channel. Unlike the 2016–2017 price cycle caused by production transitions, the current spike is demand-led. AI data centers are consuming NAND capacity at an unprecedented rate, with 2026 demand growth estimated at 20–22% against supply growth of only 15–17%. Manufacturers are prioritizing high-margin enterprise products over consumer-grade storage, further tightening retail availability. New production capacity from major suppliers like Samsung, Micron, and Kioxia is not expected until late 2027 or 2028. Until then, consumer storage prices are likely to remain high, with no significant price relief anticipated in the near term.

marsbit04/16 03:13