Artículos Relacionados con Elections

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After Polymarket and Kalshi, Are There Any Dark Horses Left in the Prediction Market?

The prediction market, once a niche crypto experiment, has evolved into a mainstream financial and information market, moving beyond a sole reliance on political events. The 2024 US election showcased platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, but sustained post-election volume from sports, tech, and economics proved long-term demand. By 2026, a duopoly controls ~97.5% of volume: Polymarket leverages on-chain trading, USDC settlement, and media integrations, while Kalshi uses CFTC compliance to access mainstream finance via partners like Robinhood. New challengers are emerging in specific niches: short-cycle trading (@trylimitless), media-native markets (@MyriadMarkets), social platform integration (@kash_bot), and infrastructure layers (@azuroprotocol, @theclearingco). Key 2026 drivers include AI agents executing over 30% of on-chain trades, media platforms embedding odds as engaging content, and sports becoming the dominant sustained vertical. Core challenges remain: contested volume metrics, state-level regulatory friction classifying markets as gambling, and token airdrop speculation inflating activity. The future lies not with generic clones, but with platforms possessing deep vertical focus, clear distribution advantages, and viable regulatory or on-chain liquidity strategies.

marsbitHace 13 hora(s)

After Polymarket and Kalshi, Are There Any Dark Horses Left in the Prediction Market?

marsbitHace 13 hora(s)

Crypto May Be Loud Online, But Only 4% Of Voters Care: Poll

A Politico survey reveals a stark disconnect between crypto industry lobbying and U.S. voter priorities. While crypto groups have spent over $130 million on the 2024 elections, only 4% of voters say a candidate's position on crypto would influence their vote. Affordable housing, consumer fraud protection, and lower bank fees rank as far more important issues for voters. The poll also shows public ambivalence toward digital assets. Only 27% support government efforts to make crypto mainstream, while 31% oppose it. Over half of respondents have never traded crypto and don't plan to. Among those who have traded, 7% say a candidate's stance would sway their vote. Furthermore, 45% view crypto investing as a risk not worth taking. Despite low voter interest, Congress is advancing crypto regulation. The Senate Banking Committee is set to vote on a regulatory framework bill, a version of which already passed the House in June.

bitcoinist05/14 21:31

Crypto May Be Loud Online, But Only 4% Of Voters Care: Poll

bitcoinist05/14 21:31

The Billionaires Behind the Most Expensive Midterm Election in History

"The Most Expensive Midterm Elections and Their Billionaire Backers" This analysis details the unprecedented scale of spending in the 2026 midterm elections, highlighting the key billionaire donors shaping the political landscape. Jeff Yass, founder of Susquehanna International Group, has contributed over $81 million, ranking third among individual donors behind George Soros ($102.6M) and Elon Musk ($84.8M). Yass is a major donor to Trump's MAGA Inc. and supports school choice and various candidates. Overall, federal committees have raised over $4.7 billion this cycle, with political ad spending projected to reach $10.8 billion. Republican-aligned groups are significantly out-raising their Democratic counterparts. "Dark money" from undisclosed sources continues to grow. The core stakes involve control of Congress and policy direction for Trump's final term. Donors are also motivated by specific issues: Sergey Brin and Chris Larsen are funding opposition to a proposed California wealth tax and supporting crypto-friendly policies. Other top donors include OpenAI's Greg Brockman and his wife Anna ($50M total to MAGA Inc. and an AI-focused PAC), Richard Uihlein ($45.3M to conservative causes), venture capitalists Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz (each over $44M to crypto/AI PACs and MAGA Inc.), Miriam Adelson ($42.6M to GOP leadership PACs), Paul Singer ($33.9M), and Diane Hendricks ($25.8M to MAGA Inc.). The article notes that the peak fundraising period is still ahead, with major primaries approaching.

marsbit05/11 07:19

The Billionaires Behind the Most Expensive Midterm Election in History

marsbit05/11 07:19

Crypto Allies Gain Ground In Congress After Indiana Primary Win

The crypto industry's main political action committee, Fairshake, spent heavily to support the successful primary re-election of Indiana Republican Representative James Baird, a reliable ally on crypto legislation. Fairshake, backed by major firms like Coinbase and Ripple, has a massive war chest and is already directing millions toward other 2026 races. Baird's win coincides with advancing crypto bills in Congress, including the CLARITY Act, which recently overcame a key hurdle on stablecoin yield provisions. However, the legislation faces scrutiny, with some senators demanding added ethics rules before offering their support.

bitcoinist05/08 08:37

Crypto Allies Gain Ground In Congress After Indiana Primary Win

bitcoinist05/08 08:37

Polymarket Is Not an All-Powerful "Truth Machine"

Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform, is often hailed as a "truth machine" for its ability to aggregate crowd wisdom through financial stakes. While it has demonstrated remarkable accuracy in predicting major events like the 2024 U.S. presidential election—outperforming traditional polls—its overall reliability is highly inconsistent. Analysis using the Brier score reveals that its predictive power excels in high-liquidity domains like politics and economics but falls to near-random or worse in categories like sports, culture, and tech. The platform’s growing influence is concerning as its odds are increasingly cited by major media outlets like The Wall Street Journal and CNN, lending them an air of authority. This visibility creates a feedback loop where the odds themselves can influence the outcomes they are meant to predict—a phenomenon known as endogeneity. Moreover, the market is vulnerable to manipulation by well-resourced "whales" with access to exclusive information, such as private polls or even military intelligence, as seen in cases involving bets on geopolitical events. While useful for short-term, high-stakes events, Polymarket’s predictions are often unreliable for the vast majority of its contracts due to low liquidity and wide bid-ask spreads. The danger lies not in its occasional failures, but in the unchecked trust it receives—risking a future where a handful of traders can shape perceived reality through a platform masquerading as an oracle of truth.

marsbit04/15 11:40

Polymarket Is Not an All-Powerful "Truth Machine"

marsbit04/15 11:40

Crypto-Backed Super PAC Launches Midterm Election Endorsements Push

A crypto-aligned super PAC named Fellowship PAC, chaired by Tether's head of government affairs Jesse Spiro, has launched its 2026 midterm election push with over $100 million to spend. Its first action was a $300,000 ad buy supporting a Republican candidate in a Georgia congressional race. The PAC has also endorsed several other Republican candidates in key Senate and gubernatorial races across five states. This strategy mirrors previous crypto-backed efforts, like the Fairshake PAC, which spent heavily in the 2024 cycle. Meanwhile, major crypto legislation, the CLARITY Act, remains stalled in the Senate.

bitcoinist04/15 10:02

Crypto-Backed Super PAC Launches Midterm Election Endorsements Push

bitcoinist04/15 10:02

Interest Rates May Not Be Cut This Year

The article discusses how a war in the Persian Gulf, leading to Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has driven up oil prices, with Brent crude surging from $70 to over $118 per barrel. This energy shock has pushed U.S. retail gasoline prices above $4 per gallon, contributing significantly to inflation. The CPI rose to 3.3% in March, the largest monthly increase since June 2022, with energy costs affecting broader sectors like food and logistics. As a result, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in 2026 has diminished. Market predictions now show a high probability of zero rate cuts, compared to pre-war expectations of multiple cuts. The Fed faces a dilemma between addressing inflation risks and supporting the economy. Politically, the situation poses challenges for President Trump and the Republican Party, as high inflation could impact the upcoming midterm elections. Trump's efforts to negotiate with Iran have stalled due to irreconcilable demands, and Iran's拖延 tactics may further strain U.S. economic and political stability. The article concludes that the prolonged conflict and sustained high oil prices could keep inflation elevated, delaying any monetary easing.

marsbit04/14 02:03

Interest Rates May Not Be Cut This Year

marsbit04/14 02:03

World's Largest Prediction Market Polymarket Begins Charging Fees! Behind It Lies a Calculated Game of Regulation, Survival, and Timing

Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market platform, has begun charging fees on its "15-minute crypto price move" markets, with rates up to 3%. This move follows its recent approval as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) by the U.S. CFTC, a pivotal regulatory milestone after a 2022 enforcement action forced it to exit the U.S. market and pay a fine. For six years, Polymarket operated with zero fees to build liquidity, establish itself as a default pricing source for events like elections and sports, and accumulate valuable data. The new fee structure, which dynamically adjusts based on market certainty and rewards market makers, is a strategic shift from growth to sustainable operation. While the platform has seen significant traction—with election period volumes hitting $2.7 billion—it continues to face regulatory challenges globally, including recent cease-and-desist orders from states like Tennessee and bans in countries like Japan and China. Polymarket's future depends on balancing innovation with compliance, expanding carefully across jurisdictions, and monetizing its unique, crowd-sourced probability data.

marsbit04/04 07:04

World's Largest Prediction Market Polymarket Begins Charging Fees! Behind It Lies a Calculated Game of Regulation, Survival, and Timing

marsbit04/04 07:04

Nearly $300 Million Aimed at U.S. Midterm Elections, Tether Executive Takes Helm of Crypto Industry's Second-Largest Political Fund

A crypto super PAC named Fellowship, which claims to have raised over $100 million but has reported zero spending to the FEC, has appointed Jesse Spiro, Tether’s VP of Regulatory Affairs, as its chairman. This marks the first official public link between Tether and the PAC, despite earlier denials. Meanwhile, another major crypto PAC, Fairshake—backed by Coinbase, Ripple, and a16z—has amassed $193 million and has already spent over $8.6 million in Illinois primary races. Combined, the two PACs control nearly $300 million aimed at influencing the November midterm elections. The move comes as the crypto industry faces a critical legislative battle over the CLARITY Act, currently stalled in the Senate. A key point of contention is whether stablecoins can pay yields to users—a issue directly affecting Tether, the issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin, USDT. A recent Senate proposal would ban passive yield but allow transaction-based rewards, a compromise the industry finds too restrictive. With the White House’s top crypto advocate departing and the legislative window narrowing, Tether’s heightened political engagement signals a strategic push to shape regulation and protect its business interests through financial influence.

marsbit04/03 05:08

Nearly $300 Million Aimed at U.S. Midterm Elections, Tether Executive Takes Helm of Crypto Industry's Second-Largest Political Fund

marsbit04/03 05:08

Nearly $300 Million Aimed at U.S. Midterm Elections, Tether Executive Takes Helm of Crypto Industry's Second-Largest Political Fund

A crypto super PAC named Fellowship, which claims to have raised over $100 million but has yet to spend any funds, has named Jesse Spiro, Tether’s VP of Regulatory Affairs, as its chairman. This marks the first official public link between Tether and the PAC. Meanwhile, another major crypto PAC, Fairshake—backed by Coinbase, Ripple, and a16z—has amassed $193 million. Combined, the two PACs are directing nearly $300 million toward the upcoming U.S. midterm elections. Fellowship, formed in August 2025, had previously drawn speculation over its undisclosed donors and lack of activity. Federal Election Commission records show no reported donations or expenditures as of December 2023. Spiro’s appointment signals a more public role for the group, which plans to soon announce its first candidate endorsements. The move comes amid a legislative standoff in the Senate over the CLARITY Act, which includes contentious provisions on stablecoin yield payments—a key issue for Tether, the issuer of USDT. With critical crypto legislation at stake and the White House’s top digital assets adviser role now vacant, the industry is ramping up political spending to influence regulatory outcomes.

marsbit04/02 06:14

Nearly $300 Million Aimed at U.S. Midterm Elections, Tether Executive Takes Helm of Crypto Industry's Second-Largest Political Fund

marsbit04/02 06:14

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