Key Takeaways
What triggered Pudgy Penguins’ latest price rebound?
Whales increased holdings by 3.2 %, while exchange supply dropped 8.78 %, confirming steady accumulation across top wallets.
What signals hint at a Q4 rally for PENGU?
Open Interest rebounded to $160 million with volume above $1 billion, suggesting renewed bullish momentum.
The memecoin sector took one of the sharpest hits during the recent market crash. Pudgy Penguins [PENGU] rebounded 17% as the new week began, tracking a broader altcoin recovery.
In terms of performance, PENGU reduced the quarterly returns to negative 7%. The second and third quarters were the most profitable, with 171.7% and 88.5%, respectively, as per CoinRank data.
This begs the question: how will this quarter perform?
PENGU chart shows a fragile recovery
On the 3-hour chart, PENGU stayed in a bearish structure but reclaimed part of the lost range. Price hovered near $0.026 after plunging below the $0.028 – $0.040 zone and touching $0.005 during the crash.
Bollinger Bands widened at the drop, then narrowed as volatility cooled and price moved back above the mid-band—an early recovery signal.
Source: TradingView
However, PENGU needed to reclaim its support in the $0.030 region to spark a move toward $0.040. The previous high was around $0.046, a reasonable target for the fourth quarter.
The reading of the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) was at 0.01, indicating capital was being deployed in the memecoin. Additionally, the MACD turned bullish after the crossover.
On-chain analysis showed the capital inflow data that drove the price in the last 24 hours.
On-chain data points to renewed accumulation
As per the Nansen AI analytics tool, “Smart Money” inflow had spiked by 6.3 times from the average. Still, whales were consistently longing for the memecoin following the crash to capitalize on the discount.
Spot accumulation on exchanges was also evident, as data showed Net Outflows.
About 8.78% of the Supply in Exchanges was withdrawn. Interestingly, top holders remained confident, as they did not sell even during this crash. In fact, they increased by 3.2%.
Source: Nansen AI
Capital inflow and conviction were not the only key driving factors, but also volume and spikes in long liquidations.
Open Interest rebounds as liquidations reset positions
Historically, long liquidations have sparked bullish reactions in crypto markets; for instance, the 5th of August crash sparked the rally seen in late 2024.
As per CoinGlass data, long liquidations hit $52 million.
Similarly, Volume in the last 24 hours improved with a reading of $1.07 billion at press time. CoinGlass data placed PENGU’s Open Interest at $160.27 million at press time, recovering from $134 million after a $342 million high.
Such resets have historically created short-term bullish setups across memecoins.
Source: CoinGlass
Altogether, the metrics showed strength on the day, but the ability to sustain depended on the broader market sentiment.
If capital inflows and Open Interest hold through Q4, PENGU could retest $0.040 — or even the $0.046 high — as long as broader sentiment stays risk-on.
