1. Market trend: BTC long-term investors profit flight, sell-off signal
BTC's latest data show that the trading profit space of long-term currency holding investors has increased significantly. On April 14, the SOPR index of BTC long-term investors rebounded to 2.42, the highest since March 29. The significance of the rebound of SOPR index is that among investors who have held money for more than 155 trading days, the overall profit of short-term trading has reached 142%. This shows that although the closing price of BTC on April 14 was only $39943, it was the lowest in the month. However, long-term investors still sell the profitable BTC.
In terms of price, BTC operates below the 120 day and 365 day moving averages, indicating that the currency holding loss situation of most investors in the past year is irreversible in the short term. The short-term moving average and long-term moving average are down, and BTC faces obvious short-term selling pressure. At present, BTC is facing the opportunity to change the market below the pressure level. Profit taking continues to slow down the rebound intensity of BTC. We still need to pay attention to the next adjustment expectation.
2. Message side interpretation:
The year-on-year rise in the US consumer price index (CPI) in March hit a new high for more than 40 years, which strengthened the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will adopt a radical catch-up interest rate increase in response to high inflation. According to the data released by the U.S. Department of labor on the 12th, CPI rose 1.2% month on month and 8.5% year-on-year in March. The year-on-year increase was the highest since December 1981. The data showed that the month on month and year-on-year growth of us CPI in March were significantly larger than that in February, highlighting the increasingly severe inflation situation in the United States.
In response to inflation, the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate increase of 25 basis points in March, and the market generally predicts that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in May. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in May and June, and then raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the remaining four meetings this year.
Affected by this, the U.S. stock market continued to perform in the doldrums, and the three major stock indexes fluctuated and fell. At the same time, the performance of the US dollar index has become stronger and stronger, and the index point has reached more than 100 points. This shows that the tightening expectation continues to push up the dollar, and the shock expectations of different markets can not be ignored. BTC rebounded and fell recently, which is more relevant to the global market trend. Driven by the expectation of interest rate increase, BTC is still facing the pressure of capital outflow and remains high.
3. dragon and tiger list:
BTC led the continuation of the correction trend of mainstream currencies, and most sectors showed downward performance. In the increase list, chain, XRP and Doge ranked at the top. Among the falling rankings, rune, Luna, FXS and other mainstream currencies ranked first. This shows that the overall market is still in decline and pay attention to the adjustment risk.
XCN
Chain is a cloud blockchain infrastructure that enables organizations to build better financial services from scratch. Chain launched chain core, a licensed and open source blockchain and sequence, whose ledger is a service product.
As the new currency of the newly listed firecoin exchange, xcn rebounded continuously from the low of US $0.095, and the band rose by 14%.
DOGE
Doge rebounded actively in the short term, with a 24-hour increase of 3.4%. Nevertheless, the intensity of price fluctuation is still within the expected limit. The fluctuation intensity of Doge is not high. At the same time, after the number of active addresses retreated from 750000 on March 10, its value has not rebounded continuously. On April 15, the number of active addresses reached 31460, while the number of new addresses was 3478. The value is relatively sluggish, and currency holding investors pay attention to the performance of growth.
XRP
In terms of correlation, the linkage between XRP and BTC is not obvious. Especially in terms of band increase, XRP often lags behind BTC in terms of increase, but there can be price changes in the adjustment stage, or even sustained large increase. XRP short-term start, market signals can focus on deviation opportunities.
Xrp24 rose by 5.2% in 24 hours. Its market performance is different from that of most mainstream currencies, which can be regarded as a short-term currency holding opportunity after the overall market weakens.
In terms of capital rate, XRP's recent weighted capital rate is obviously above 1, and the average value has reached 0.79. This shows that the cost price of buying XRP by bulls is higher than 1. Bulls are ready to be beneficial to the rise of XRP price and pay attention to the performance of the rise.
Decline list
In terms of decline, algorithm stable currencies such as Luna and FXS led the decline, and the related Rune decreased significantly. At the same time, the ETH two-tier network concepts near and CELO fell first. This shows that most hot currencies have a large pullback, and the currency holding risk of currencies with large band increase increases.
