Originally from WSJ, authors Katherine Long, Caitlin Ostroff, Neil Mehta and Brenna T. Smith
Compiled by Odaily Planet Daily, Qin Xiaofeng (@QinXiaofeng 888 )
Editor's Note: A recent investigation by The Wall Street Journal found that the prediction market platform Polymarket paid dozens of creators to fabricate trades and profit videos on simulated websites, and used social media "bots" for viral promotion to attract US users. These videos did not disclose the paid relationship as required by federal regulations, and the "substantial returns" displayed were entirely fabricated. Polymarket stated that it is committed to maintaining an accurate, fair, and transparent market and plans to conduct a comprehensive audit of its promotional content.
The following is the investigative article from The Wall Street Journal, compiled by Odaily Planet Daily, enjoy~
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From George Makihara's videos, it appears he has a lucrative side hustle: placing bets on Polymarket.
In January, this college student posted a video showing him winning $100,000 by betting that President Trump would publicly say the word "McDonald's" that month.
According to his videos, from January to mid-May, George Makihara appeared to have placed 145 bets on the Polymarket website – totaling nearly $410,000.
But according to The Wall Street Journal's investigation, none of these trades were real.
George Makihara jumps for joy when Trump says "McDonald's"; Trump never publicly said the word that month, and this video was filmed two months prior.
Based on an analysis of over 1,100 videos, related instructional materials, and interviews with creators who have worked with the company by The Wall Street Journal, George Makihara is one of dozens of creators paid by Polymarket, mostly college students, who film themselves making fake trades and sometimes displaying fake profits. George Makihara declined to comment.
Public data shows that on the actual Polymarket website in January, over 50 accounts placed bets on "McDonald's". All of these accounts lost money.
To attract users to its unregulated platform, Polymarket flooded social media with videos like George Makihara's, which appear convincing at first glance. In reality, Polymarket created near-perfect clones of its website and instructed creators to conduct simulated trades on these virtual sites, concealing that they were being paid by Polymarket.
To make the videos go viral, Polymarket recruited a social media "army" to copy and repost the creators' content. Although this New York-based company has been barred from offering its core crypto platform services in the US since 2022, these social media creators were paid to work, explicitly targeting US users—who can still access the site via virtual private networks (VPNs).
Polymarket said in a statement, "The company is committed to maintaining accurate, fair, and transparent markets. We are part of a fast-growing industry and are continually evaluating how to improve the ways we engage with and earn the trust of our audience." The company stated it plans to conduct a comprehensive review of existing promotional content.
Polymarket hired a marketing contractor and worked closely with it to promote the site. In a message reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, the contractor told its social media "army" to focus on reposting content from 10 Polymarket creators, George Makihara being one of them. These creators initially did not label themselves as paid partners of Polymarket, though one included a $20 discount code in their social media bio. Only after The Wall Street Journal began questioning the company about its marketing operations did these creators start adding the label "@polymarket partner" to their bios.
The Wall Street Journal examined 1,105 videos published between December 2025 and mid-May by 10 creators endorsed by Polymarket's contractor. In 70% of the videos, the creators placed bets; clues in the videos indicated that all these bets – totaling $1.9 million – were fake. Most videos only showed the betting process, but 118 videos showed creators reacting to victories, claiming to have won nearly $900,000 in total—again, from fake trades; had you actually placed those bets, you would have lost over $166,000. (Note: Polymarket has a data partnership with Dow Jones & Company, publisher of The Wall Street Journal; The Wall Street Journal used only public data for this analysis.)
According to creators who have worked with the company, Polymarket instructed creators not to disclose they were paid collaborators. They said compensation typically ranged from $2,000 to $3,000 per month.
Investigating Fake Trades
One of the earliest videos showing signs of fake trades was posted to social media in June 2025, filmed at Polymarket's New York office. Someone placed a $100,000 bet that Powell would say "Good afternoon" during a press conference, with the caption calling the bet a "valid masculinity test."
The Wall Street Journal's investigation found over a dozen differences between the real Polymarket website and the simulated one.
The fake simulated website was called "poiymarket.com"; when the "i" is capitalized, it is indistinguishable from polymarket.com. According to a person familiar with the matter, the site was built by Polymarket. The price charts on the site were labeled as sourced from "Polymarket.com." However, Polymarket's real official website does not display any source information.
Additionally, the fake site sometimes contained errors. For example, buttons might show "YES" and "NIR," while the real site shows "YES" and "NO."
Several videos reviewed by The Wall Street Journal also briefly flashed URLs indicating these sites were test environments for Polymarket engineers. After The Wall Street Journal contacted Polymarket for a response, the fake "poiymarket" website was taken down.
Federal advertising law requires brands to make truthful representations in their promotional content and individuals compensated to endorse products to disclose their relationship; although some gray areas remain regarding what is permissible. The commodities law governing prediction markets also prohibits deceptive and misleading conduct.
A spokesperson for the Federal Trade Commission, which enforces advertising laws, declined to comment on The Wall Street Journal's findings, citing the agency's policy of not commenting on potential investigations.
California college student Razeen Khan, who worked as a Polymarket creator for several months until March, compared the videos to fast-food commercials—where the food looks more appealing than it actually is.
"We're showing what actually happens," he said. "You still buy the burger."
Creators said they would send their finished videos to Polymarket for approval. If a video wasn't engaging enough or was obviously fake, Polymarket would request a reshoot.
Haian Nguyen was one of Polymarket's top-performing creators, filming herself trading on the platform from a bedroom in San Francisco. In a video posted to Instagram, Haian Nguyen celebrates winning $60,000 after betting Trump would say "Olympics."
In another video where she dances on a beach near the Golden Gate Bridge, the text overlay reads "Polymarket funds my life."
Haian Nguyen declined to comment and cleared all videos from her profile after being contacted by The Wall Street Journal.
These promotional videos all follow the same template: the creator opens Polymarket, places a bet, and refers to the profit as "free money." Dozens of social media creators posted videos in nearly identical formats. According to creators who have worked with the company and a recruitment website, Polymarket would send creators bullet-pointed talking points.
Common catchphrases in Polymarket user-generated content videos are as follows:
Nearly 25% of videos used the word "free." Common phrases include "free bread," "free money," and "just free."
- "Bro, if this trend continues, this is free bread." – 27 videos
- "Wait, what?" – 223 videos
- Free – 278 videos
- "Isn't this free money?"
- "If I bet a grand on Canada winning, isn't this free money?" – 35 videos
- "Am I missing something?" – 237 videos
- "Bro, what?" – 166 videos
- "Wait" – 100 videos
Source: The Wall Street Journal's analysis of 1,105 Polymarket creator videos on TikTok
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates prediction markets, has previously taken enforcement actions against companies that used simulated trades to market products and made unrealistic profit promises.
The Trump administration took a lax stance on regulating prediction markets. The CFTC has filed multiple lawsuits to prevent states from regulating and taxing prediction markets. Trump recently posted on Truth Social that it is "crucial" for the CFTC to have exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets so they can flourish, calling politicians who want states to regulate them "scum." Trump's son, Donald Trump Jr., is an investor in Polymarket and a paid advisor to competitor Kalshi.
A White House spokesperson said there is no conflict of interest and that Trump's actions are in the best interests of the American public. A CFTC spokesperson, responding to The Wall Street Journal's report, said it's important to bring offshore prediction markets back to the US so regulators can oversee them more effectively.
The Hype Machine
For Polymarket, virality is everything.
According to two people familiar with his thinking, founder Shayne Coplan told Polymarket's growth team to make the company impossible to ignore on the internet. His close friend from high school, Matthew Modabber, oversees Polymarket's growth as Chief Marketing Officer.
In 2024, Matthew Modabber (left) with Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan (right)
Polymarket is striving to attract more trading volume than its main competitor—the US-regulated prediction market Kalshi. Polymarket initially led; for most of 2025, both grew in sync; but in recent months, Kalshi has taken the lead. According to data provider The Block, last month Kalshi's trading volume was roughly double that of Polymarket.
Monthly trading volume by prediction market, data as of end of May 2026; Source: The Block
In 2022, Polymarket settled charges of operating an unregistered options exchange, agreeing to stop offering its crypto-based trading services to US customers and formally re-registering in Panama. Late last year, it launched a regulated US version of its platform, available only as a mobile app. The app's trading volume is a fraction of the offshore crypto exchange.
According to a person familiar with the matter, Polymarket is currently seeking to overturn the outcome of the 2022 settlement to bring its crypto platform back to the US.
In the meantime, it's turning to social media to draw Americans to Polymarket.
Polymarket's Social Media "Army"
Polymarket's strategy leverages three groups of social media producers to portray the platform as a source of fast, easy money, gaining viral attention.
- Streamers: Influencers livestream for hours on platforms like Twitch and Kick, discussing Polymarket and sometimes trading.
- Creators: Social media users, mostly college students, make short videos talking about or trading on Polymarket.
- Editors (known as "clippers" domestically): People worldwide—especially teens in Asia—repost streamer and creator videos.
Polymarket hired marketing firm Virality to manage the "clipper" team. Their promotional campaigns target Americans: according to instructional materials, as of early June, the clipper team only gets paid if at least 60% of their audience consists of US users.
Polymarket publicly distances itself from these ads. Based on The Wall Street Journal's review of nearly 20,000 messages in online creator contractor chat groups for Polymarket, as well as instructional files and videos prepared for them, Virality required clipper posts to appear "personal and natural."
"Everyone, if your account name contains 'Polymarket', please rename and delete as soon as possible," a Virality employee said in a group chat to a group of clippers. "Continuing to use it will violate our guidelines and may result in rejection of submissions. Even 'poly' is not allowed; change that too." Virality declined to comment.
Virality's clipping promotion campaigns delivered significant results.
A video posted on TikTok by a Polymarket creator had only 151 views by mid-May. The clipping team reposted his video using small accounts, but most reposts garnered little attention, with view counts in the single or low double digits. But Polymarket works with numerous video clippers to increase the chances of a video going viral. Eventually, one video will take off.
According to analytics provider Tubular, Polymarket's viral clipping campaigns have amassed over 140 million views cumulatively on TikTok, YouTube, and Instagram.
A TikTok US spokesperson said several accounts identified by The Wall Street Journal and other related accounts have been restricted for violating platform rules. A YouTube spokesperson said creators and brands must comply with legal obligations, otherwise YouTube may take action. A Meta spokesperson said that while the platform requires creators to disclose if they are paid to promote or endorse a product, it cannot confirm whether these specific contents violate its policies, as it has not independently verified whether these creators are paid by Polymarket.
Influencer Livestream Endorsements
Polymarket and Virality targeted dozens of videos by Adin Ross for promotion. Ross is a 25-year-old "manosphere" influencer with millions of followers. According to a person familiar with the negotiations, Ross has a multi-million dollar deal with Polymarket, averaging about half an hour per week on livestreams browsing Polymarket and commenting on potential trades.
In at least five videos, Ross pointed out how he could use insider information to trade on the platform.
In one video used for promotion, Ross stated he could easily use insider knowledge to trade on the release date of hip-hop artist Drake's (an acquaintance of Ross) upcoming new album.
Representatives for Ross and Drake declined to comment.
Internal materials show that Polymarket and Virality promoted videos showcasing how easy it is to engage in insider trading on the platform. Polymarket has paid clippers to promote at least 19 videos discussing opportunities to manipulate the market using insider information or other means.
Polymarket stated that it "prohibits trading based on information obtained through theft, illegal insider information, or in breach of trust, confidentiality, or other legal obligations." and added, "Polymarket's market integrity framework includes trade monitoring, on-chain transparency, reporting channels, and escalation processes to detect, review, and respond to suspicious activity. Where appropriate, we collaborate with regulators and law enforcement to uphold the integrity of our markets."
As the World Cup approached, some of Polymarket's creators shifted to filming themselves trading on the company's newly launched, CFTC-regulated US app.
At first, these trades also appeared legitimate. The app interface shown in social media videos looked almost identical to Polymarket's US app interface.
But closer inspection revealed differences. For example, the market on the official app was "26 World Cup," while on the simulated Polymarket US app, it was "2026 FIFA World Cup."
The fake simulated trades continued.
