The biggest takeaway from the 2025 cycle? Risk assets are officially no longer following the usual post-halving playbook. With a 7.85% yearly close, the TOTAL crypto market cap didn’t ride the 2024 halving rally.
Basically, the 2024 halving cut Bitcoin [BTC] rewards, slashing the amount of new BTC entering the market. Historically, that kind of scarcity sparks a post-halving pump, but this time, the market didn’t follow the textbook.
So, what changed? Investors realized that Bitcoin ETFs can cut both ways. During the Q4 2025 rally, BTC ETFs dumped roughly $4 billion in a single quarter, just as the market turned risk-off, making Bitcoin’s dip even worse.
Notably, that same dynamic is playing out in 2026.
So far, Bitcoin ETFs have posted two consecutive months of outflows, totaling nearly $2.3 billion. That aligns with BTC’s 21.3% drop and is already shaping up to be the worst Q1 performance since the 2018 cycle.
Unsurprisingly, this momentum has spilled over to ETF firms as well. For instance, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) is down 21.5%, adding to last year’s 6.4% loss. As a result, HODLers are now significantly underwater.
Against this backdrop, U.S President Donald Trump’s media platform, Truth Social, is stirring the market again. The big question now – Can his ETF push actually reverse the trend, or could it end up adding risks that make post-halving pumps even harder to come by?
Bitcoin faces ETF headwinds despite Trump’s crypto filing
Lately, any move by the President makes timing even more important.
In this context, President Trump’s media platform, Truth Social, has filed with the SEC for two crypto ETFs. One targets Cronos [CRO], while the other, Bitcoin and Ethereum [ETH], along with Ethereum staking.
Notably, the market reacted fast. Bitcoin jumped by 4%, still shy of the $70k-mark, while ETH rallied harder, up 5.2% – Breaking the $2k psychological resistance, though it’s still a long way from its previous highs.
Even so, big ETF players are feeling the heat. BlackRock’s ETH ETF (ETHA) saw $9.3 million in outflows, marking the seventh straight day of redemptions, with ETHA shares now 30% underwater so far in 2026.
All in all, one thing is clear – Bitcoin ETFs have become a major signal of market sentiment. Despite the big headlines, the price reaction has been relatively muted, evidence that investors are staying cautious.
In this environment, it’s hard to see President Trump’s ETF endorsement turning the trend around. Instead, with ongoing outflows, the risk of more pressure on prices and a slowdown in post-halving rallies is only growing.
Final Summary
- Ongoing outflows have amplified dips, with Bitcoin down 21.3% and some ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT and ETHA deeply underwater.
- Despite the SEC filings, investor caution and persistent outflows suggest post-halving rallies may be still at risk.
