Multiple analysts are warning that Bitcoin's recent rebound to around $93,000 (a 14.5% rise from recent lows) is a "bull trap" and signals a "rally for selling," not the start of a sustained bull run. They present three core bearish arguments.

First, a "bear flag" pattern has been identified on BTC's charts. This technical formation, often a continuation signal in a downtrend, suggests a potential breakdown with a projected target near $77,100, which would represent a 16% decline from current levels.

Second, comparisons are drawn to the 2021 market cycle. Analysts note the current structure is "almost identical," featuring a double-top pattern, a sharp drop to cycle support, and a deceptive rebound that formed a bull trap before a more severe crash. If this pattern repeats, BTC could plummet over 50% to the $40,000 range by early 2026.

Third, Google Trends data shows searches for "Bitcoin bear market" have hit a five-year high, indicating peak public fear. Historically, such spikes in fear have preceded major sell-offs. One analyst warns BTC may反弹 to $97,000 to "trap" bullish investors before the true bear market begins.

In conclusion, these analysts believe the current uptick is an opportunity to sell, forecasting significant further downside risk in the coming months.

<div class="post-meta post__block post__block_post-meta" data-v-ae253174><div class="post-meta__author"><div class="post-meta__author-image"></div><span lang="en" data-testid="meta-author-name" class="post-meta__author-name text-sm inline-block text-text-invertedWeak"> Yashu Gola </span></div><div class="inline-block leading-5 align-middle"><time datetime="2025-12-09T03:38:32.000Z" data-gtm-locator="publication_date" data-testid="publication-date" class="text-xs sm:text-sm inline-block text-fg-updatedMuted"> 1 minute ago </time></div></div><h1 class="post__title" data-v-ae253174> Bitcoin"Rally Only for Selling": Three Core Arguments of BTC Market Bears </h1><div class="post__block post__block_lead-text" data-v-ae253174><p itemprop="description" class="post__lead text-fg-default" data-v-ae253174> Multiple analysts believe that BTC's rally is actually a bull trap, warning that its price could fall to the $40,000 level in the coming months. </p></div><div class="post-cover post__block post__block_cover" data-v-ae253174><div class="post-cover__wrp overflow-hidden rounded-lg"><div class="lazy-image post-cover__image lazy-image_immediate"><span class="pending lazy-image__pending pending_dark"><span class="pending__runner"></span></span><picture><source media="(min-width: 1200px)" srcset="https://images.cointelegraph.com/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=717/https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-12/019afdb1-fe9d-73ed-bc01-9a423b0ba5fd, https://images.cointelegraph.com/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=1434/https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-12/019afdb1-fe9d-73ed-bc01-9a423b0ba5fd"><source media="(min-width: 992px)" srcset="https://images.cointelegraph.com/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=587/https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-12/019afdb1-fe9d-73ed-bc01-9a423b0ba5fd, https://images.cointelegraph.com/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=1174/https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-12/019afdb1-fe9d-73ed-bc01-9a423b0ba5fd"><source media="(min-width: 768px)" srcset="https://images.cointelegraph.com/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=638/https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-12/019afdb1-fe9d-73ed-bc01-9a423b0ba5fd, https://images.cointelegraph.com/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=1276/https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-12/019afdb1-fe9d-73ed-bc01-9a423b0ba5fd"><source media="(min-width: 480px)" srcset="https://images.cointelegraph.com/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=747/https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-12/019afdb1-fe9d-73ed-bc01-9a423b0ba5fd, https://images.cointelegraph.com/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,onerror=redirect,quality=90,width=1494/https://s3.cointelegraph.com/uploads/2025-12/019afdb1-fe9d-73ed-bc01-9a423b0ba5fd"><div><img style="max-width:100%;overflow:hidden;" src="https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2025-12/32608922786b4569aad4b17c646dfa16.jpg" alt=""></div></source></source></source></source></picture></div><span hidden="hidden" class="post-cover__badge"> Market Analysis </span></div></div><div class="post__content-wrapper with_margin" data-v-ae253174><div class="post-content relative post-content_margin no-small-text" data-v-ae253174><p>Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed 14.50% from its recent low of $86,000, returning to near $93,000, while traders are sharply divided on whether this is a bull "recovery" or a bear market rally. </p><p data-ct-non-breakable="undefined"><strong>Key Points:</strong></p><ul><li><p>Analysts point out that BTC's rally is actually a bull trap, with risks potentially expanding to as low as $40,000.</p></li><li><p>Google Trends data suggests the price may first rebound to $97,000 before continuing its adjustment.</p></li></ul><figure>    <div><img style="max-width:100%;overflow:hidden;" src="https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2025-12/97a6082b6bdf4da2a53e697fbd94ccd4.jpg" alt=""></div><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><em>BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView</em>  </figcaption></figure><p>Among the analysts holding a bearish stance, CryptoBirb maintains a firm position, believing that the current and future BTC price "rally is only for selling," rather than a signal to impact the widely expected year-end target of $150,000 and higher.  </p><h2><strong>Bear Flag Pattern Suggests BTC Price May Fall 16%</strong></h2><p>The primary argument supporting the BTC bull trap theory mentions a classic technical pattern called the "bear flag," a structure that often evolves into further decline during a downtrend.  </p><p>Mister Crypto, Celeb Franzen, and several other analysts pointed out this bearish continuation pattern during BTC's rebound, with some analysts indicating that the BTC price could likely fall to $80,000.  </p><figure>    <div><img style="max-width:100%;overflow:hidden;" src="https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2025-12/ba32d39e22d14e5bab20c4c9797f5c17.jpg" alt=""></div><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><em>Source: X</em>  </figcaption></figure><p>An in-depth analysis of the bear flag pattern reveals its December technical downside target is approximately $77,100, a value calculated by adding the height of the prior downtrend to the potential breakout point near the $88,000 support level.  </p><figure>    <div><img style="max-width:100%;overflow:hidden;" src="https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2025-12/cfa6e857f9064d5f973d804ad74fe0be.jpg" alt=""></div><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><em>BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView</em>  </figcaption></figure><p>This would represent a drop of about 16% from the current price level.  </p><h2><strong>If the 2021 Pattern Repeats, BTC Could Crash to $40,000</strong></h2><p>Analyst Leshka pointed out that BTC's current structure is "almost identical" to the 2021 cycle.  </p><p>He shared a BTC pattern comparison chart, including the recurring double-top pattern, a sharp drop towards the cycle support level, and a deceptive rally, ultimately forming a bull trap, followed by a more violent crash.  </p><figure>    <div><img style="max-width:100%;overflow:hidden;" src="https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2025-12/cc983eeee43b42cc8b34b9f5eba2aa5a.jpg" alt=""></div><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><em>BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView/Leshka</em>  </figcaption></figure><p>In the similar situation in 2021, this trap was followed by a long-term decline, halving BTC's value. The 2025 pattern shows an almost identical setup, with the price oscillating within the same support zone, expected to break downward subsequently.  </p><p>Leshka warned that if this pattern repeats, BTC could return to the $40,000 area in early 2026, a drop of over 50% from current levels.  </p><p>Analyst Alex Wacy also pointed to the same downside target, citing BTC's pullback from the multi-year uptrend resistance line, a situation that often leads to a 70% retracement.  </p><figure>    <div><img style="max-width:100%;overflow:hidden;" src="https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2025-12/59b7ce24b1764e1e80d2d2ecf2b73951.jpg" alt=""></div><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><em>Source: X</em>  </figcaption></figure><h3><strong>Google Trends Data Shows BTC Crowd Panicking Again</strong></h3><p>Analyst AndrewBTC pointed out in a post published on platform X on Monday that last week's Google search volume for "Bitcoin bear market" hit a new five-year high within the framework, indicating that the BTC "crowd is panicking again."  </p><figure>    <div><img style="max-width:100%;overflow:hidden;" src="https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2025-12/73e438e8ebb74fb3a42a4770187770c9.jpg" alt=""></div><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><em>Source: Google Trends/AndrewBTC</em>  </figcaption></figure><p>From a historical perspective, these panic emotions usually appear on the eve of large-scale sell-offs in the BTC market.  </p><p>For example, in May 2021, when the BTC price experienced a retracement of over 50% before oscillating near $60,000, and in June 2022, when the price was around $26,000, BTC subsequently slid to the cycle bottom of about $15,450.  </p><figure>    <div><img style="max-width:100%;overflow:hidden;" src="https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2025-12/e1b0814c6cee4f46ab11b05a465af1e1.jpg" alt=""></div><figcaption style="text-align: center;"><em>BTC/USDT weekly chart. Source: TradingView</em>  </figcaption></figure><p>The surge in the "Bitcoin bear market" Google search trend in August also followed the drop in BTC price.  </p><p>AndrewBTC warned that Bitcoin is likely to rebound to the $97,000 area in the next stage, but this is only to trap bullish investors, adding:  </p><blockquote>"Everyone will think the bull market is back, but that's not actually the case, the bear market has just begun."  </blockquote><p>Related recommendation: Analysts say Bitcoin (BTC) bulls must hold key positions to avoid falling to $76,000</p></div><div class="post-disclaimer post__block post__block_disclaimer md:ms-[74px]" data-v-ae253174><div class="post-disclaimer__body"><p> This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. 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Cointelegraph is not responsible for any losses or damages arising from your reliance on this information. </p></div></div><div class="post__separator-line" data-v-ae253174></div><div class="tags-list post__block post__block_tags" data-v-ae253174><ul class="tags-list__list"><li class="tags-list__item"><span class="tags-list_hash-sign">#</span>Bitcoin </li><li class="tags-list__item"><span class="tags-list_hash-sign">#</span>Bitcoin (BTC) </li><li class="tags-list__item"><span class="tags-list_hash-sign">#</span>Bitcoin Analysis </li><li class="tags-list__item"><span class="tags-list_hash-sign">#</span>Market </li><li class="tags-list__item"><span class="tags-list_hash-sign">#</span>Tech Analysis </li><li class="tags-list__item"><span class="tags-list_hash-sign">#</span>Market analysis </li></ul></div><div class="adslot-after-article relative" style="--aspect-ratio:null;" data-v-ae253174></div><div class="post__separator-line" data-v-ae253174></div><div class="post__reactions reactions_3eiuR" data-v-ae253174><button class="reactions--button_NhAhG"><svg width="20" height="20" viewbox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M17.5 2.5V0.416667C17.5 0.186548 17.3134 0 17.0833 0H16.25C16.0199 0 15.8333 0.186548 15.8333 0.416667V2.5H13.75C13.5199 2.5 13.3333 2.68655 13.3333 2.91667V3.75C13.3333 3.98012 13.5199 4.16667 13.75 4.16667H15.8333V6.25C15.8333 6.48012 16.0199 6.66667 16.25 6.66667H17.0833C17.3134 6.66667 17.5 6.48012 17.5 6.25V4.16667H19.5833C19.8134 4.16667 20 3.98012 20 3.75V2.91667C20 2.68655 19.8134 2.5 19.5833 2.5H17.5Z" fill="#303D43"></path><path d="M9.58332 4.16667C6.13154 4.16667 3.33332 6.96489 3.33332 10.4167C3.33332 13.8684 6.13154 16.6667 9.58332 16.6667C13.0351 16.6667 15.8333 13.8684 15.8333 10.4167V8.75C15.8333 8.51988 16.0199 8.33333 16.25 8.33333H17.0833C17.3134 8.33333 17.5 8.51988 17.5 8.75V10.4167C17.5 14.7889 13.9556 18.3333 9.58332 18.3333C5.21107 18.3333 1.66666 14.7889 1.66666 10.4167C1.66666 6.04441 5.21107 2.5 9.58332 2.5H11.25C11.4801 2.5 11.6667 2.68655 11.6667 2.91667V3.75C11.6667 3.98012 11.4801 4.16667 11.25 4.16667H9.58332Z" fill="#303D43"></path><path d="M7.08332 10.4167C7.77368 10.4167 8.33332 9.85702 8.33332 9.16667C8.33332 8.47631 7.77368 7.91667 7.08332 7.91667C6.39297 7.91667 5.83332 8.47631 5.83332 9.16667C5.83332 9.85702 6.39297 10.4167 7.08332 10.4167Z" fill="#303D43"></path><path d="M13.3333 9.16667C13.3333 9.85702 12.7737 10.4167 12.0833 10.4167C11.393 10.4167 10.8333 9.85702 10.8333 9.16667C10.8333 8.47631 11.393 7.91667 12.0833 7.91667C12.7737 7.91667 13.3333 8.47631 13.3333 9.16667Z" fill="#303D43"></path><path d="M6.18102 12.5C5.86965 12.5 5.67271 12.8279 5.85392 13.0811C6.68534 14.2429 8.04608 15 9.58365 15C11.1212 15 12.482 14.2429 13.3134 13.0811C13.4946 12.8279 13.2976 12.5 12.9863 12.5H6.18102Z" fill="#303D43"></path></svg><span class="reactions--button-text_N11-8"> Add Emoji </span></button></div><div><img style="max-width:100%;overflow:hidden;" src="https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2025-12/9536169471cc4a2998119bc185236dd3.jpg" alt=""></div></div>

Bitcoin 'Rally Only for Selling': Three Core Arguments of BTC Market Bears

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Bitcoin's price appears stable but is under significant structural pressure, with investors facing nearly $500 million in daily losses and over 6.5 million BTC held at unrealized losses. This coincides with a potential shift in U.S. monetary policy, as the Federal Reserve ends its quantitative tightening program—which reduced its balance sheet by $2.4 trillion—and signals a move toward "Reserve Management Purchases." This could inject over $400 billion annually in liquidity by reinvesting in short-term Treasuries.

Market attention is focused on Fed Chair Powell’s upcoming remarks regarding labor market softening and the timing of liquidity expansion. A clear signal toward reserve rebuilding could push Bitcoin above the $92k–$93.5k resistance, while a cautious tone may keep it range-bound between $75k–$82k.

Despite miner capitulation and weak short-term holder sentiment, large wallets are accumulating Bitcoin, exchange reserves are declining, and stablecoin inflows suggest latent demand. This combination of pressure and accumulation often precedes a market bottom. Bitcoin’s next major move hinges on the Fed’s liquidity signals and broader macroeconomic conditions.

<html><head></head><body><p><span style="color:#7f8c8d">Written by: Oluwapelumi Adejumo</span></p>
<p><span style="color:#7f8c8d">Compiled by: Saoirse, Foresight News</span></p>
<p>Bitcoin's price movement is fluctuating alongside the Fed's final policy decision of the year, showing almost no significant surface-level changes, yet the deep market structure presents a completely different picture.</p>
<p>Beneath the seemingly stable price range lies a period of concentrated pressure: on-chain data shows investors are facing daily losses nearing $500 million, leverage in the futures market has significantly decreased, and nearly 6.5 million Bitcoin are currently in an unrealized loss position.</p>
<p><div><img style="max-width:100%;overflow:hidden;" src="https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2025-12/a88632f1754a42a1a353cb0aaec78cd6.jpg" alt=""></div></p>
<p><span style="color:#7f8c8d">Bitcoin Realized Loss Level, Source: Glassnode</span></p>
<p>This situation resembles the final stages of past market contractions more than a healthy consolidation phase.</p>
<p>However, structural adjustments occurring beneath a calm surface are not uncommon for Bitcoin, but the timing of this adjustment is noteworthy.</p>
<p>The internal market "capitulation selling"恰好 coincides with an external inflection point in US monetary policy. The Federal Reserve has ended its most aggressive balance sheet reduction phase in over a decade, and the market expects its December meeting to outline a clearer framework for a "turn towards reserve rebuilding."</p>
<p>Given this, the on-chain market pressure and the pending liquidity shift together form the backdrop for this week's macro events.</p>
<h2>Liquidity Shift</h2>
<p>According to the Financial Times, Quantitative Tightening (QT) officially ended on December 1st. During this period, the Fed reduced its balance sheet by approximately $2.4 trillion.</p>
<p>This move pushed bank reserve levels down into a range historically associated with funding stress, while the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) repeatedly tested the upper limit of the policy rate band.</p>
<p>These changes indicate that the market system is no longer flush with liquidity but is gradually entering a phase of "concern triggered by scarce reserves."</p>
<p>Against this backdrop, the most critical signal from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is not the widely anticipated 25 basis point rate cut, but rather the direction of its balance sheet strategy.</p>
<p>The market expects the Fed to clarify its transition plan to "Reserve Management Purchases (RMP)" through an explicit statement or policy implementation document.</p>
<p>According to analysis by investment research firm Evercore ISI, this plan could launch as early as January 2026, involving monthly around $35 billion in purchases of short-term Treasury bills — funds recouped from maturing mortgage-backed securities will be reallocated into short-term assets.</p>
<p>The details of this mechanism are crucial: although the Fed is unlikely to define RMP as "stimulus policy," continuous reinvestment into short-term Treasury bills will steadily rebuild bank reserves and shorten the asset maturity structure of the System Open Market Account (SOMA).</p>
<p>This operation will gradually increase the scale of reserves, ultimately leading to an annualized balance sheet growth exceeding $400 billion.</p>
<p>Such a shift would mark the first sustained expansionary policy signal from the Fed since the start of quantitative tightening. Historical data suggests Bitcoin's sensitivity to these types of liquidity cycles is far greater than its sensitivity to changes in policy rates.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, broader monetary aggregate data indicates that the liquidity cycle may have already begun to turn.</p>
<p>Notably, the M2 money supply has reached a historical peak of $22.3 trillion, surpassing the high of early 2022 after a prolonged period of contraction.</p>
<p>(Note: M2 is a core measure of money supply, falling under the "broad money" category. It has a wider scope than base money (M0) and narrow money (M1), providing a more comprehensive reflection of the overall liquidity situation in society.)</p>
<p><div><img style="max-width:100%;overflow:hidden;" src="https://d1x7dwosqaosdj.cloudfront.net/images/2025-12/108dd7092cff4aa2ae7ab479889d8a93.jpg" alt=""></div></p>
<p><span style="color:#7f8c8d">US M2 Money Supply, Source: Coinbase</span></p>
<p>Therefore, if the Fed confirms the start of "reserve rebuilding," Bitcoin's sensitivity to balance sheet dynamics could quickly rebound.</p>
<h2>Macro Trap</h2>
<p>The core rationale for this policy shift stems from changes in employment data.</p>
<p>Nonfarm payrolls have declined in 5 out of the past 7 months; simultaneously, job openings, the hiring rate, and the quits rate have all shown signs of slowing, shifting the employment market narrative from "highly resilient" to "fragile and under pressure."</p>
<p>As these indicators cool, the theoretical framework of an "economic soft landing" becomes increasingly difficult to sustain, and the Fed's policy options continue to narrow.</p>
<p>While current inflation has receded, it remains above the policy target; meanwhile, the cost of "maintaining restrictive policy for longer" is rising.</p>
<p>The potential risk is that weakness in the labor market could intensify further before inflation fully returns to target levels. Therefore, the informational value of the Fed press conference this week might exceed that of the rate decision itself.</p>
<p>The market will focus intently on how Fed Chair Powell balances the dual objectives — maintaining labor market stability while ensuring credibility in the inflation path. His remarks on "reserve adequacy," "balance sheet strategy," and the "timing of RMP launch" will dominate market expectations for 2026.</p>
<p>For Bitcoin, this means its price movement won't be a binary outcome of simply rising or falling, but will depend on the specific direction of the policy signals.</p>
<p>If Powell acknowledges labor market weakness and clearly outlines the reserve rebuilding plan, the market might perceive the current range-bound price as disconnected from the policy direction — a break above the $92k - $93.5k range would indicate traders are anticipating liquidity expansion.</p>
<p>Conversely, if Powell emphasizes policy caution or delays clarifying RMP details, Bitcoin could remain within the lower consolidation range of $82k - $75k — a zone that concentrates ETF holding bottoms, corporate treasury reserve thresholds, and historical structural demand areas.</p>
<h2>Will Bitcoin See 'Capitulation Selling'?</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, Bitcoin's internal market dynamics further corroborate the view that "the asset is undergoing a reset beneath the surface."</p>
<p>Short-term holders continue to sell tokens during market weakness; as mining costs approach $74k, mining economics have significantly deteriorated.</p>
<p>Simultaneously, Bitcoin mining difficulty saw its largest single drop since July 2025, indicating marginal miners are scaling back operations or shutting down rigs entirely.</p>
<p>However, these pressure signals coexist with early signs of "supply tightening."</p>
<p>Research firm BRN Research disclosed to CryptoSlate: large wallets have accumulated approximately 45,000 BTC over the past week; Bitcoin exchange balances continue to decline; stablecoin inflows show that capital is poised to re-enter the market should conditions improve.</p>
<p>Furthermore, supply metrics from asset manager Bitwise show that despite retail sentiment being in "extreme fear," wallets of all types are accumulating Bitcoin. Tokens are moving from high-liquidity platforms to long-term custody accounts, further reducing the proportion of supply available to absorb sell-offs.</p>
<p>This pattern of "forced selling, miner pressure, and selective accumulation" often forms the foundation for a long-term market bottom.</p>
<p>Bitwise further added:</p>
<p>"Bitcoin's capital expansion continues to contract, with the 30-day realized cap growth rate falling to just 0.75% per month. This suggests profit-taking and stop-loss selling in the current environment are roughly balanced, with losses only slightly outweighing profits. This rough balance indicates the market has entered a 'calm period,' with neither bulls nor bears holding clear dominance."</p>
<h2>Technical Perspective</h2>
<p>From a market structure perspective, Bitcoin remains constrained by two key ranges.</p>
<p>A sustained break above $93.5k would push the asset into a zone where "momentum models are more easily triggered," with subsequent targets at $100k, $103.1k (the short-term holder cost basis), and long-term moving averages.</p>
<p>Conversely, failure to break resistance in the face of cautious Fed signals could see the market retreat to the $82k - $75k range — an area that has repeatedly acted as a "reservoir" for structural demand.</p>
<p>BRN Research notes that cross-asset performance also confirms this sensitivity: ahead of the Fed meeting, gold and Bitcoin showed inverse correlations, reflecting asset rotation driven by changes in liquidity expectations, rather than purely risk sentiment-driven volatility.</p>
<p>Therefore, if Powell's comments reinforce the expectation that "reserve rebuilding is the core of the next policy phase," capital could quickly rotate towards assets that respond positively to "liquidity expansion."</p>
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