# Risk Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Risk", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Solana Lending Internal Conflict: The Power Struggle Behind Foundation Mediation

Over the weekend, a public dispute erupted between Solana's two leading lending protocols, Jupiter Lend and Kamino. The conflict originated from Jupiter's earlier marketing claims that its lending product featured "risk isolation," implying that different lending pools would not be exposed to cross-contagion in the event of an asset failure. However, after Jupiter Lend launched, the market observed that its design did not align with the conventional understanding of risk isolation. The protocol allows for the rehypothecation (re-use) of collateral across pools to improve capital efficiency, which critics argue creates potential channels for risk contagion. Kamino's co-founder, Marius Ciubotariu, publicly accused Jupiter of misleading users with false advertising and subsequently blocked a migration tool from Kamino to Jupiter Lend. The core of the debate lies in differing interpretations of "risk isolation." Jupiter and its supporters argue their model offers a balanced approach with independent pool configurations, while Kamino and its allies insist that any form of rehypothecation negates true risk isolation and constitutes a failure in disclosure. The dispute drew reactions from key ecosystem players. Multicoin Capital, an investor in Kamino, strongly criticized Jupiter, accusing the team of either incompetence or intentional deception. In contrast, the Solana Foundation President, Lily Liu, called for unity, urging the two projects to focus on growing the overall market share against competitors like Ethereum rather than engaging in internal conflict. The clash is seen as an inevitable result of intensifying competition in a shrinking market. Jupiter Lend has been rapidly capturing market share from the formerly dominant Kamino since its launch. In a tighter, post-market-crash environment where safety is a paramount concern, Kamino seized on a perceived vulnerability in Jupiter's product design to launch a competitive attack. The incident highlights the fierce battle for dominance in Solana's DeFi lending sector.

比推12/08 16:55

Solana Lending Internal Conflict: The Power Struggle Behind Foundation Mediation

比推12/08 16:55

Don't Be Fooled by the Rebound! Bitcoin Could Retest Lows at Any Moment | Exclusive Analysis

**Bitcoin Weekly Analysis: Beware of a Potential Secondary Pullback** Last week, Bitcoin experienced significant volatility, forming a weekly doji candle with a slight gain of 0.03% and a wide 12.36% range. The price action perfectly validated the pre-defined key level of $89,000. Our analyst successfully executed two short-term trades based on this framework, resulting in a total gain of 6.93%. **Technical Outlook:** The weekly chart indicates Bitcoin is on the verge of entering a bear market, with momentum indicators pointing south. The daily chart shows a weakening bullish rebound within a broader bearish structure. **Price Projections for the Week (Dec 8-14):** The market is expected to remain range-bound. Key resistance levels are identified at $91,000, $94,000-$96,500, and $98,500-$100,000. Crucial support zones lie at $85,500-$87,500, $83,500, and around $80,000. **Trading Strategy:** A core medium-term short position (65% allocation) is maintained. For short-term swings (30% allocation), two scenarios are outlined: * **Scenario A (Rebound & Short):** Sell into strength if the price rallies to the $91,000-$94,200 or $98,500 resistance zones, with a stop-loss above $100,000. * **Scenario B (Dip & Buy):** Buy a potential bounce if the price drops to the $83,500-$80,000 support area, with a stop-loss below $80,000. **Macro Focus: The Fed's "Super Week":** This week's price action is heavily dependent on the Federal Reserve's policy decision. While a December rate cut is widely expected, the crucial factor for Bitcoin and risk assets will be the Fed's "dot plot" guidance for 2025 rate cuts. A hawkish dot plot (signaling fewer cuts) could trigger a pullback toward $85,000. A dovish signal (more cuts anticipated) could fuel a rebound above $90,000. Chairman Powell's commentary will be key to short-term volatility.

marsbit12/08 19:49

Don't Be Fooled by the Rebound! Bitcoin Could Retest Lows at Any Moment | Exclusive Analysis

marsbit12/08 19:49

When Tether No Longer Clings to the Dollar...

Tether, the issuer of the world's largest stablecoin USDT, is shifting its reserve strategy in anticipation of lower interest rates. While its business model thrived during high-rate periods—earning billions from U.S. Treasury holdings—future Fed rate cuts could reduce its interest income significantly. To adapt, Tether has diversified into gold (over 100 tons) and Bitcoin (over 90,000 BTC), which together make up 12-13% of its reserves. These assets historically perform well in low-rate, high-liquidity environments, potentially offsetting lost Treasury yield. However, rating agencies like S&P have expressed concern, downgrading Tether’s stability rating due to increased exposure to volatile assets like Bitcoin and reduced transparency. The key challenge remains maintaining USDT’s dollar peg while navigating this new macroeconomic phase.

比推2 days ago 19:55

When Tether No Longer Clings to the Dollar...

比推2 days ago 19:55

30-Year Wall Street Veteran: What Horse Racing, Poker, and Investment Legends Taught Me About Bitcoin

Based on his father's lessons from horse racing, a 30-year Wall Street veteran applies a probabilistic, Bayesian thinking framework to investing. The core principles are: do your own research to set independent odds, focus on where capital is actually flowing (not just narratives), and bet significantly only when you identify a major mispricing between your assessment and the market's. Applying this to Bitcoin, he sees a fundamental case for 3:1 or 5:1 odds, while observing that most wealthy, institutional investors price it at 100:1 or zero, with minimal allocation. This creates a rare asymmetric opportunity, reminiscent of the "smart money" principles of investors like Stan Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones, where low positioning is often a key signal as strong fundamentals. He advises a position size based on individual age, time horizon, and risk tolerance, noting that AI's deflationary yet disruptive force may accelerate the need for a digital, belief-based monetary asset like Bitcoin. The key is to separate the decision-making process from the outcome and act decisively only when research, odds, and positioning align.

深潮2 days ago 09:18

30-Year Wall Street Veteran: What Horse Racing, Poker, and Investment Legends Taught Me About Bitcoin

深潮2 days ago 09:18

When Curators Become a Risk Variable in DeFi Lending, How Can Algorithms Reshape the Market?

The article argues that the current "Curator" model in DeFi lending, as seen in protocols like Morpho and Euler, reintroduces human moral risk and inefficiency. It traces the evolution of lending markets, highlighting that early pooled models (e.g., Compound, Aave) sacrificed lender risk control for borrower convenience, while isolated markets (e.g., Morpho Blue) fragmented liquidity. Curator vaults attempted to bridge this gap but reintroduced trust assumptions and discretionary decision-making. The author proposes a new paradigm inspired by traditional order books: a two-tier architecture separating risk definition from order matching. In this model (exemplified by Avon), lenders deposit into isolated, parameter-defined "strategies" (retaining full risk control), while a shared order book algorithmically aggregates and routes borrower requests across compatible strategies atomically. This eliminates the need for human curators, enhances transparency, and improves liquidity utilization. The approach also benefits RWA by allowing compliance at the strategy level while pooling global liquidity. Built on high-performance chains like MegaETH, this CLOB-based system aims to automate lending coordination without sacrificing lender autonomy or borrower experience.

比推2 days ago 14:51

When Curators Become a Risk Variable in DeFi Lending, How Can Algorithms Reshape the Market?

比推2 days ago 14:51

Dogecoin ETF Records Worst Trader Activity Since Launch

An ETF tracking Dogecoin is recording its lowest trading activity since its launch, signaling a significant shift in trader behavior. Retail interest in this passive investment vehicle is waning, while the overall appetite for risk remains strong. Traders are increasingly moving away from the "buy and hold" approach, finding it boring, and are instead seeking excitement, leverage, and community-driven, speculative formats. This trend is evident in the booming meme token sector, where new characters, trading communities, and subcultures are emerging. In contrast to the static value storage offered by an institutional ETF, retail traders are searching for identity, gamification, and the chance to maximize gains from every market move. At this intersection of Dogecoin fatigue and a craving for extreme risk emerges Maxi Doge ($MAXI). It positions itself not just as a meme but as a "pump cult," combining the imagery of a muscular dog with a culture of maximum leverage and competitive mechanics for retail investors. The project, built on Ethereum, features a treasury fund, staking rewards, and trading competitions. Having raised $4.3 million in its presale, $MAXI aims to cater to traders with a "maxi mentality" who seek high returns and active participation, rejecting the sluggish statistics of traditional funds.

bitcoinist2 days ago 18:30

Dogecoin ETF Records Worst Trader Activity Since Launch

bitcoinist2 days ago 18:30

Why Isn't Asia's Largest Bitcoin Treasury Company Metaplanet Buying the Dip?

Metaplanet, the Japanese company known as the "Asian MicroStrategy," has paused its Bitcoin accumulation strategy for ten consecutive weeks since September 30, despite the recent market correction. While giants like MicroStrategy continued buying—adding 10,624 BTC at an average of $90,615—Metaplanet shifted its focus to stock buybacks and capital structure improvements. This pause reflects a broader industry trend where Bitcoin treasury firms (DATs) are prioritizing risk management over aggressive accumulation. DATs have faced significant pressure, with median stock prices dropping 43% and some falling over 99%, leading Galaxy to warn of a "Darwinian phase" for the sector. Metaplanet’s tactical halt aims to protect shareholder value and avoid further dilution, especially after its mNAV fell below 1x. The company also seeks to avoid accounting losses under Japan’s conservative standards, as its Bitcoin holdings have over $500 million in unrealized losses with an average cost of $108,000. Instead, Metaplanet is leveraging Japan’s low-interest environment to develop innovative financing tools, such as the "Mercury" perpetual preferred stock offering a 4.9% yield—ten times local bank rates—with 73% of proceeds directed to Bitcoin purchases. It also uses Moving Strike Warrants (MSW) to raise capital without violating Japan’s market restrictions. The company benefits from unique advantages: yen depreciation enhances Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge, and Japanese investors use tax-free NISA accounts to gain BTC exposure via Metaplanet stock. Major institutions like Capital Group have increased stakes, seeing lower financing costs and higher return potential compared to Western counterparts. However, short-term risks remain, including potential sell pressure if MSCI removes Metaplanet from its Japan Index due to high Bitcoin exposure. Ultimately, the pause is a strategic recalibration, not a retreat, highlighting the DAT sector’s maturation from aggressive accumulation to sustainable, risk-aware growth.

marsbitYesterday 12:43

Why Isn't Asia's Largest Bitcoin Treasury Company Metaplanet Buying the Dip?

marsbitYesterday 12:43

USDT Rating Controversy: S&P's 'Stability Scale', Tether's 'Market Debate', and the 'Shadow Central Bank' Transformation

The recent S&P Global downgrade of USDT's stability rating from "constrained" to "weak" has ignited a significant debate between traditional finance (TradFi) and the crypto ecosystem. S&P's decision was primarily based on concerns over Tether's reserve composition—now comprising ~24% in higher-volatility assets like Bitcoin and gold—and a perceived lack of governance transparency, fearing these assets could not be liquidated quickly in a mass redemption scenario. Tether countered by emphasizing its proven market resilience, having maintained its peg through multiple past crises, and its real-time reserve reporting. The core of the article identifies a fundamental clash in risk assessment frameworks: TradFi prioritizes redeemability and capital adequacy in extreme stress, while the crypto market's stability is underpinned by 24/7 on-chain liquidity and automated清算 mechanisms. The report further analyzes Tether's strategic shift from a simple stablecoin issuer to a "shadow central bank," diversifying its reserves into assets like BTC and gold for inflation hedging, yield generation, and de-dollarization. This strategy, while profitable in a bull market (e.g., $10B profit in 2025), introduces cyclical risks if asset prices fall. Looking forward, the article suggests the need for a dual-rating system: a traditional stability rating for redeemability and a new investment risk rating for收益 sustainability and exposure management, reflecting the evolving and divergent needs of the market.

marsbit17h ago

USDT Rating Controversy: S&P's 'Stability Scale', Tether's 'Market Debate', and the 'Shadow Central Bank' Transformation

marsbit17h ago

Before the Bull Market Returns: Lessons I Learned in the Crypto World with Millions

Investment Lessons from the Crypto Market: A Reflection Before the Bull Run This article shares hard-earned lessons from losing millions in the crypto space, offering a sobering perspective on market behavior and personal psychology. The author begins by distinguishing between investment and speculation, noting that crypto is primarily driven by sentiment and tokenomics, not fundamentals. In bull markets, emotion dictates 60% of pricing, token distribution 30%, and fundamentals only 10%. This makes speculation far more profitable than value investing, which often leads to significant losses as holders refuse to cut losses, hoping for a recovery that never comes. A critical mistake is poor timing and position sizing. The author emphasizes the importance of maximizing risk exposure early in a trend's reversal—when uncertainty is high but odds are favorable—rather than during the euphoric peak when downside risk is severe. Examples from the AI meme season and the BSC rally illustrate how late entries often lead to missed opportunities or forced, high-risk bets. The piece also warns against traditional valuation metrics like P/E ratios and token buybacks, which assume sustainable earnings—a rarity in crypto where few projects survive long-term. Market leaders often change, and entire sectors are disproven. Ultimately, the author concludes that theoretical knowledge isn't enough; true understanding comes from painful, personal experience. The market's cyclical nature means many are doomed to repeat errors, but self-awareness and disciplined strategy are essential for survival and success.

marsbit6h ago

Before the Bull Market Returns: Lessons I Learned in the Crypto World with Millions

marsbit6h ago

Financial Times: Why the world should be worried about stablecoins

The article from the Financial Times argues that the global push for dollar-denominated stablecoins, particularly from the US, is a cause for serious concern. While stablecoins are promoted as a solution to high US payment costs and inefficient cross-border transfers, their adoption primarily benefits issuers, criminals, and the US Treasury by helping finance its deficits. However, stablecoins lack the stability, transparency, and regulatory oversight of traditional money. They fail key tests of singleness (uniform value), resilience, and integrity (resisting illicit activity), as highlighted by institutions like the BIS. The author suggests that instead of embracing these risky private currencies, other countries—especially in Europe—should develop their own well-regulated digital payment systems. The piece concludes that the current US approach to stablecoins is predatory and could have disastrous consequences, warranting global resistance.

marsbit3h ago

Financial Times: Why the world should be worried about stablecoins

marsbit3h ago

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