# QT Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "QT", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Research Report Analysis: The Fed's New Chair's Debut – New Leader, But Same Script?

Report Analysis: Federal Reserve's New Chair Debut – A New Captain, But the Same Script? Morgan Stanley's chief global economist Seth B. Carpenter analyzes the first FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in a June 21 report. Warsh deliberately avoided providing forward guidance on interest rates, aligning with his philosophy. However, market expectations for a rate hike this year were reinforced. Key signals lie elsewhere: inflation may fall more than expected, and quantitative tightening (QT) could be more aggressive than anticipated. The FOMC's "dot plot" suggests only one rate hike in 2026. Carpenter argues that if inflation undershoots forecasts, the logic for even a single hike weakens, especially as projections indicate potential rate cuts in 2027. On QT, Warsh's stance is clear. Carpenter notes that measures like halving the Treasury's account balance could shrink the Fed's balance sheet by around $500 billion with minimal market impact. Combined with adjustments to reserve interest and liquidity rules, the ultimate QT scale may exceed expectations, though its market effect might be less disruptive unless the Fed actively sells Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). While Warsh initiated a review of the Fed's policy framework, the 2% inflation target remains intact for now. The report concludes that the market may be overestimating the significance of reduced forward guidance and the near-term rate hike risk, while potentially underestimating the scope and manageable nature of the coming balance sheet reduction. The key debates will hinge on upcoming core PCE data, the specifics of the QT path, and the framework review's findings.

marsbit06/22 14:32

Research Report Analysis: The Fed's New Chair's Debut – New Leader, But Same Script?

marsbit06/22 14:32

The Richest Fed Chair in History? Three Challenges Kevin Warsh Is About to Face

Kevin Warsh, nominated by Trump as the next Federal Reserve Chair, faces three major challenges as he prepares to take office. With a personal investment portfolio exceeding $130 million, including holdings in crypto protocols and public chains, he is set to become the wealthiest Fed chair in history. Warsh, known for his historically hawkish stance, has recently shifted his position, arguing that AI is a powerful deflationary force that could boost productivity. However, rising CPI and energy prices pose a risk to this outlook. He strongly defended Fed independence, stating that it is eroded not by political pressure but by the institution’s own missteps, such as blurring the lines between monetary and fiscal policy during the 2021-2022 inflation period. Additionally, Warsh advocates for significant balance sheet reduction while potentially cutting rates—a combination that markets find unsettling. He also proposes modernizing inflation measurement with real-time data, including stablecoins and on-chain pricing, to improve policy responsiveness. His confirmation is currently delayed due to a political investigation into current Chair Powell, adding uncertainty to his appointment.

marsbit04/24 00:36

The Richest Fed Chair in History? Three Challenges Kevin Warsh Is About to Face

marsbit04/24 00:36

Why Are Gold, U.S. Stocks, and Bitcoin All Falling?

Amid seemingly strong U.S. economic data, a broad-based sell-off hit global assets—from U.S. stocks and gold to commodities and cryptocurrencies—triggering market-wide panic. While surface-level factors like Middle East tensions and Trump’s comments on a weaker dollar contributed, the core issue lies deeper. The real driver appears to be a shift in market narrative and liquidity stress. The MAG7 tech stocks, which led the rally since May 2023, are facing skepticism over their high capital expenditures and stretched valuations. Meanwhile, banking system liquidity remains tight, with the spread between SOFR and IORB indicating strain, reducing the Fed’s flexibility for quantitative tightening. This has amplified a macro liquidity crunch, reminiscent of the March 2020 “312” crash, where investors dumped risk assets for cash. Unlike the May 2021 “519” crash—which was crypto-specific—this downturn is driven by systemic risk aversion and deleveraging. The AI investment theme is losing steam, and long-term bond yields are signaling concerns over fiscal sustainability. Cryptocurrencies, as high-risk assets, are among the first to be sold off. The current environment may present a recalibration opportunity, but survival depends on maintaining liquidity amid the volatility.

marsbit02/05 16:34

Why Are Gold, U.S. Stocks, and Bitcoin All Falling?

marsbit02/05 16:34

Interest Rate Cuts? Trump's 'Perfect Candidate' Might Be Even Tougher to Handle Than Powell!

President Trump has nominated Kevin M. Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor with strong Wall Street ties, to be the next Fed chair, praising him as potentially "one of the greatest" in history. However, Trump’s strong desire for significant interest rate cuts—potentially to around 1%—faces major obstacles. The current rate stands at 3.5%-3.75%, and the economy shows steady growth with no clear need for aggressive cuts. Warsh, often labeled an inflation hawk, has shown flexibility in the past and recently argued there is room for rate reductions if productivity gains from AI offset inflation risks. Still, he would need to persuade a skeptical Federal Open Market Committee, where several regional bank presidents are hesitant about further cuts. Colleagues and observers describe Warsh as a pragmatic operator who understands markets and values Fed independence. He is expected to base decisions on economic data rather than political pressure, despite Trump’s expectations. If confirmed, Warsh would face intense scrutiny over every policy move amid concerns about the Fed’s independence.

比推01/30 22:21

Interest Rate Cuts? Trump's 'Perfect Candidate' Might Be Even Tougher to Handle Than Powell!

比推01/30 22:21

Bernstein Confirms Bitcoin Bottom, Maintains $150,000 Price Target For 2026

Bernstein analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, confirm that Bitcoin has bottomed at $80,000 and express strong confidence in a new bull run. They dismiss concerns that the recent peak above $126,000 was the cycle's top, attributing the ongoing rally to an institutional-driven "digital assets revolution." The firm has raised its price targets, forecasting Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by 2026 and $200,000 by 2027. This outlook is supported by market expert MartyParty, who links Bitcoin's cycles to Federal Reserve policy, noting that the end of quantitative tightening and the anticipated start of quantitative easing in 2026 signal the beginning of a new bull market.

bitcoinist01/07 00:02

Bernstein Confirms Bitcoin Bottom, Maintains $150,000 Price Target For 2026

bitcoinist01/07 00:02

Fed's $400 Billion Liquidity Signal: Bitcoin Under Pressure Awaits a Breakthrough

Bitcoin's price appears stable but is under significant structural pressure, with investors facing nearly $500 million in daily losses and over 6.5 million BTC held at unrealized losses. This coincides with a potential shift in U.S. monetary policy, as the Federal Reserve ends its quantitative tightening program—which reduced its balance sheet by $2.4 trillion—and signals a move toward "Reserve Management Purchases." This could inject over $400 billion annually in liquidity by reinvesting in short-term Treasuries. Market attention is focused on Fed Chair Powell’s upcoming remarks regarding labor market softening and the timing of liquidity expansion. A clear signal toward reserve rebuilding could push Bitcoin above the $92k–$93.5k resistance, while a cautious tone may keep it range-bound between $75k–$82k. Despite miner capitulation and weak short-term holder sentiment, large wallets are accumulating Bitcoin, exchange reserves are declining, and stablecoin inflows suggest latent demand. This combination of pressure and accumulation often precedes a market bottom. Bitcoin’s next major move hinges on the Fed’s liquidity signals and broader macroeconomic conditions.

深潮12/09 05:22

Fed's $400 Billion Liquidity Signal: Bitcoin Under Pressure Awaits a Breakthrough