# Macro Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Macro", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Can crypto recover from its $2.6T market cap wipeout? If not, what’s next?

Cryptocurrency markets are entering Q3 under significant pressure, with the total market cap falling from a record $4.7 trillion to around $2.05 trillion. Macroeconomic uncertainty, a strengthening U.S. dollar, and rising Treasury yields are driving a flight to safety, dampening investor appetite for risk assets like crypto. This negative backdrop is compounded by weak crypto-specific fundamentals, including a sharp decline in DeFi Total Value Locked (TVL) from $115 billion to $70 billion and a record number of hacks resulting in major losses. With technical indicators and market performance lagging behind other asset classes like the NASDAQ, the outlook for a recovery in Q3 appears increasingly bearish.

ambcrypto3h ago

Can crypto recover from its $2.6T market cap wipeout? If not, what’s next?

ambcrypto3h ago

Trading Moments: Bitcoin's 200-week moving average has turned into a resistance level, can the July rise still be realized?

**Market Recap: Key Global Developments and Outlook** Global markets are navigating shifting dynamics. Geopolitical tensions eased as the US and Iran agreed to halt further military actions, planning talks for June 30. This pushed oil prices down, with WTI crude dropping below $70. Meanwhile, gold saw a "death cross" (50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day), pressured by a strong dollar and rising real yields. A methodological revision to the US PCE inflation index, set for September, is expected to artificially lower reported core inflation, drawing criticism for lack of transparency. In US equities, major indices extended losses, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recording their longest losing streaks since last year. Hedge funds aggressively sold tech stocks, particularly in semiconductors, leading to a sharp rotation into defensive sectors like healthcare and utilities. SpaceX is set for rapid inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, potentially triggering significant passive fund inflows, while its valuation faces scrutiny. Bitcoin is on track for its worst monthly performance since 2022, down over 18% in June. It has failed to reclaim its 200-week moving average (now acting as resistance near $62.6k), raising the risk of a drop toward $55k. Historically, July is a strong month for BTC, with an average gain of 7.6%. Analysts suggest the current sell-off could present a buying opportunity, with a key test being whether Bitcoin can stabilize above $61k to confirm a reversal. In Asia, South Korean stocks initially fell on semiconductor selling but recovered after the government announced a massive investment plan for chips and AI. Japanese retail sales showed strength, supporting consumer recovery. Chinese markets saw a rebalancing, with healthcare stocks surging on policy catalysts and consumption shares rebounding. Hong Kong tech stocks also rallied. **Key upcoming events:** * June 30: US-Iran technical talks; MiCA transition deadline in Spain; NetEase's dual-primary listing in Hong Kong. * July 1: ECB's Sintra Forum featuring key central bankers. * July 6-7: SpaceX's inclusion in Nasdaq 100 triggering passive fund flows. * September 30: New US PCE methodology takes effect.

marsbit14h ago

Trading Moments: Bitcoin's 200-week moving average has turned into a resistance level, can the July rise still be realized?

marsbit14h ago

Bitcoin and gold decline together – ‘Haven’t seen before,’ says strategist

Market strategist Charlie Bilello notes that 2026 has been a historically unique year, with both Bitcoin and gold declining significantly—Bitcoin down 31% and gold down 6%—making them the worst-performing major asset classes. This simultaneous drop, not observed in any previous calendar year, suggests investors are reducing exposure to both traditional and alternative stores of value. The trend is attributed to a mix of factors including sustained high interest rates, geopolitical conflicts, and increased crypto hacks. Bitcoin's price fell 43% over the past year to around $60,237, while gold saw a 33% increase to about $4,072. The correlation between the two assets, which was low or negative for much of the period, turned strongly positive by June 2026 as gold also began to decline. Historically, Bitcoin and gold have often moved inversely during market stress, but 2026 shows a break from that pattern, with both assets under significant pressure.

ambcrypto14h ago

Bitcoin and gold decline together – ‘Haven’t seen before,’ says strategist

ambcrypto14h ago

Weekly Editor's Picks (0613-0619)

Weekly Editor's Picks (0613-0619): Market Insights & Analysis This weekly digest curates in-depth analysis often lost in the information flow, focusing on key insights across macro trends, investment, and technology. **Macro & Geopolitics:** With the Strait of Hormuz reopening and military conflict shifting to negotiation, markets are pivoting from "war shock" to "supply restoration." Trades include shorting crude risk premiums, longing airlines/tourism, Asian energy importers, and bond duration, while shorting inflation expectations. LNG, fertilizer, and chemical chains are also being repriced. **Investment & VC:** Ray Dalio advises against betting on concentrated AI giants dominating indices, advocating for diversified portfolios of high-quality, low-correlation assets instead. Analysis covers the 4-year crypto cycle, predicting the core surviving product by 2029 will be asset trading markets. Current BTC metrics suggest a potential bottoming zone, presenting a patient accumulation window. SpaceX's high-profile IPO at a $2.1T valuation faces scrutiny over fundamentals, with key watchpoints being its likely inclusion in the Nasdaq index and Q2 earnings. Concerns are raised about potential "gamma squeeze" and systemic risks if its narrative-driven valuation gets amplified by passive index funds. Robinhood (HOOD) is noted for breaking its high correlation with crypto, bolstered by its stock trading and new underwriting business. **Web3 & AI:** A warning highlights ~$1.8T in off-balance-sheet AI infrastructure commitments (purchase commitments, leases) as a potential systemic risk if AI monetization lags. AI models are being used for World Cup predictions, adding a new layer for betting markets. A cost breakdown of a $20 AI subscription reveals the supply chain from model companies to cloud, GPUs, and power. **Prediction Markets:** The emergence of prediction market "concept stocks" is noted, with Robinhood developing its own platform, Rothera, signaling a shift from market competition to a "channel war" for user access. **CeFi & DeFi:** The SpaceX IPO tested perpetual contract mechanisms for pre-IPO assets, highlighting challenges in handling corporate actions like stock splits on-chain. The de-pegging of STRC (Strategy's preferred share) to ~$89 reflects market concerns over MicroStrategy's capital structure and BTC-backed leverage model. BlackRock's covered-call Bitcoin ETF (BITA) offers yield but caps upside, appealing to yield-seeking institutions. **Ethereum:** An opinion piece argues Ethereum's core strength is its vast developer community and composability, solidifying its role as the default operating system for the financial internet. **Weekly Hot Topics:** Include the US-Iran deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Fed's hawkish hold, Anthropic restricting model access, SpaceX acquiring Cursor, and a humorous stock surge for "Liuliumei" due to its "LLM" ticker.

marsbit06/20 03:42

Weekly Editor's Picks (0613-0619)

marsbit06/20 03:42

Conversation with Investor Zheng Di: MicroStrategy's Coin Sale Experiment, AI Economy, and Opportunities in US Stocks

Frontier tech investor Zheng "Didier" Di discusses the recent Bitcoin price drop, the financial strategy shift at MicroStrategy, the AI-driven surge in U.S. stocks, and the evolving role of crypto exchanges. Didier posits that the recent BTC decline stems less from macro factors or ETF outflows, and more from market repricing due to MicroStrategy's new financial structure. Following a wave of preferred stock and debt issuance (STRC, STRZ, etc.), MicroStrategy must now manage cash flow to pay dividends, potentially leading to a market expectation of sustained, small-scale BTC sales to maintain its "per-share bitcoin neutral" principle. Didier views this as a financial "experiment" testing market capacity for such recurring sell pressure, which, while creating near-term structural headwinds, likely avoids a true "death spiral" absent major new external shocks. Shifting to AI, Didier argues that tokens are becoming the new form of labor, with AI models and compute (tokenized inputs) increasingly replacing human roles in execution and middle-management. This drives enterprise efficiency and higher margins, fueling the sustained rally in U.S. semiconductor, data center, and infrastructure stocks. He foresees an emerging "machine economy" where automated agents transact and collaborate on-chain. Regarding crypto exchanges offering U.S. equities, Didier sees this as a natural evolution. With few crypto-native assets generating lasting value, exchanges are pivoting towards real-world assets (RWAs) like stocks and bonds. This doesn't necessarily cannibalize crypto but reflects a maturing industry focusing on blockchain's core utilities: decentralized choice and efficient settlement. He notes that trading logic for crypto natives doesn't need to drastically change, as meme-driven and fundamentalist strategies find analogs in U.S. markets. The "1011 event" (likely referring to a major market crash) severely damaged crypto market liquidity, marking a probable end to the altcoin speculative cycle, with capital flowing towards the deeper liquidity of U.S. markets. For the macro outlook, Didier is cautious about near-term market pressure from potential mega-IPOs (e.g., SpaceX) and the U.S. midterm elections, which could bring more regulatory scrutiny. Long-term, he remains bullish on AI's productivity gains and its convergence with blockchain/Web3, predicting a shift from speculative frenzy to a more institutionalized, industrial phase for the crypto sector.

marsbit06/19 06:32

Conversation with Investor Zheng Di: MicroStrategy's Coin Sale Experiment, AI Economy, and Opportunities in US Stocks

marsbit06/19 06:32

Will MicroStrategy Fall Into a Death Spiral? How Will the Macro Outlook Evolve in the Second Half of the Year?

**Summary:** The discussion centers on recent Bitcoin price declines and the evolving financial strategy of MicroStrategy (MSTR). The core argument is that the primary pressure is not from one-off Bitcoin sales by MSTR, but from the market's new expectation that MSTR may need to engage in *sustained, small-scale* Bitcoin sales to cover cash flow obligations for its growing portfolio of preferred shares and debt instruments (like STRC). This shift is driven by its stated goal of maintaining "bitcoins per share neutrality." The market is now testing whether it can absorb this potential ongoing selling pressure without entering a severe "death spiral" with Bitcoin's price. A resolution may involve MSTR softening its approach to avoid damaging both its stock and Bitcoin. The conversation then explores the parallel rise of AI-related stocks. The guest posits that AI is fundamentally restructuring labor, with "tokens" (representing access to AI models/compute) becoming a new form of capital and a substitute for human execution. This drives corporate efficiency and profits, benefiting upstream hardware providers (semiconductors, data centers), which explains the sustained rally. This represents the early stages of a "machine economy." Regarding crypto exchanges offering US stock trading, this is seen as a natural evolution. With few crypto-native assets generating lasting value, exchanges are pivoting to distribute valuable real-world assets (RWAs). This doesn't necessarily harm crypto's long-term prospects, as blockchain infrastructure may become crucial for future machine-to-machine economies. The analysis concludes that the era of rampant altcoin speculation is likely over, heavily damaged by the liquidity shock of the "1011" event (likely referring to a major market crash). Meme-driven capital has largely migrated to US equities. Looking ahead, macroeconomic uncertainty is rising due to potential large IPOs (e.g., SpaceX) and the US elections. While short-term market corrections are possible, the long-term trends of AI-driven productivity gains and the maturation of blockchain towards real-world utility and institutional adoption remain intact.

marsbit06/19 02:01

Will MicroStrategy Fall Into a Death Spiral? How Will the Macro Outlook Evolve in the Second Half of the Year?

marsbit06/19 02:01

Will MicroStrategy Fall into a Death Spiral? What Will the Macro Trend Be in the Second Half of the Year?

The podcast features investor Didier discussing the recent Bitcoin downturn and the evolving strategy of MicroStrategy (MSTR). He argues the core pressure is not macro factors or ETF outflows, but the market pricing in an expectation that MSTR will engage in continuous, small-scale Bitcoin sales to fund its increasing preferred stock and debt obligations under its "bitcoin-per-share neutrality" principle. This creates a structural headwind. However, he is cautiously optimistic a "death spiral" is avoidable without new major shocks, as market support is likely to emerge at a certain price point. Didier then posits that the AI-driven bull market in US stocks (semiconductors, data centers) is fundamentally driven by AI agents and tokens becoming the "new labor force," displacing human roles and boosting corporate margins. This shift toward a machine economy is still in its early stages. He comments on crypto exchanges adding US stock trading, viewing it as a natural move toward valuable real-world assets as truly valuable crypto-native assets remain scarce. For crypto-native traders, he suggests existing strategies (e.g., meme-chasing or value investing) can translate to similar assets in US markets. The discussion notes the severe liquidity damage from the "1011 event" (likely referring to a major market crash) has essentially ended the altcoin cycle, with speculative momentum shifting to the more liquid US stock market. Regarding the macroeconomic outlook for H2 2024, Didier expresses increased caution due to potential market pressure from upcoming mega-IPOs (e.g., SpaceX) and US midterm election risks. Long-term, he remains bullish on AI's productivity gains and its convergence with blockchain/Web3, which he sees maturing into a more institutional, real-asset-focused phase.

链捕手06/19 01:58

Will MicroStrategy Fall into a Death Spiral? What Will the Macro Trend Be in the Second Half of the Year?

链捕手06/19 01:58

Conversation with Arthur Hayes: AI Has Drained Market Liquidity, BTC Will Be Below 100k by Year-End

In this June 2026 podcast interview, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes explains his decision to sell his major crypto holdings (HYPE, NEAR, Worldcoin, Zcash). His rationale is based on a macro view linking oil prices, the Iran conflict, US politics, and an impending AI bubble burst. Hayes argues that high oil prices, driven by the ongoing war, will pressure domestic US inflation. To salvage the Republican Party's chances in the midterm elections, he believes Donald Trump may pivot to a populist, anti-AI stance—advocating for taxes and regulation—which would deflate the AI investment narrative. He sees the AI sector, particularly massive capital expenditure on data centers, as having absorbed nearly all excess market liquidity (around $1.5 trillion in debt issuance since 2025), starving other assets like Bitcoin. He highlights the upcoming SpaceX IPO at a ~$1.8 trillion valuation and 100x price-to-sales ratio as a potential tipping point. If these hyped IPOs underperform, it could shatter market confidence in AI. In such a scenario, all risk assets, including crypto, would fall together as correlations converge to 1 during a broad correction. Hayes has moved his portfolio into Treasuries and energy stocks (like ExxonMobil), predicting Bitcoin will be below $100k by year-end. He sees a potential crypto bull market only after the AI frenzy cools, liquidity stops flowing exclusively into AI, and possibly after a significant market downturn prompts new monetary stimulus.

marsbit06/17 06:23

Conversation with Arthur Hayes: AI Has Drained Market Liquidity, BTC Will Be Below 100k by Year-End

marsbit06/17 06:23

Bitcoin Decouples From Global M2 Liquidity As Money Supply Hits Record High

Bitcoin is diverging from a record-high global M2 money supply (over $135 trillion), challenging the historical assumption that rising liquidity directly lifts BTC prices. While a bullish view suggests Bitcoin is merely lagging and will eventually catch up as capital rotates into riskier assets, a more cautious "regime-change" argument posits that factors like spot ETFs, institutional flows, and a stronger dollar may have weakened the direct correlation. For traders, this divergence presents a clear macro question to monitor: whether Bitcoin's price will confirm a delayed rally or signal a lasting change in its relationship with global liquidity. The outcome will shape how future liquidity data is interpreted.

bitcoinist06/17 05:32

Bitcoin Decouples From Global M2 Liquidity As Money Supply Hits Record High

bitcoinist06/17 05:32

US-Iran Memorandum Signing Sets Up Macro Catalyst For Bitcoin Traders

Bitcoin traders are watching a potential macro catalyst as the US and Iran are scheduled to sign a memorandum on June 19, 2026, in Switzerland, with Qatar and Pakistan mediating. While not a crypto event, the agreement's relevance lies in its potential impact on geopolitics, oil prices, and inflation expectations—key factors for Bitcoin as a high-beta risk asset. The MoU addresses military operations, sanctions, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route. A successful diplomatic step could ease oil market stress, cool inflation fears, and boost risk appetite, potentially supporting Bitcoin. Conversely, stalled talks or disappointing terms could limit any positive effect. The immediate market test will likely show in oil prices, the US dollar, and equity futures, with Bitcoin reacting indirectly based on shifting liquidity expectations and investor psychology. Traders should monitor the event for changes in broader market uncertainty and risk sentiment, rather than treating it as a direct, standalone catalyst for BTC.

bitcoinist06/17 04:11

US-Iran Memorandum Signing Sets Up Macro Catalyst For Bitcoin Traders

bitcoinist06/17 04:11

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