# Macro Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Macro", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Interview with Michael Saylor: I Did Say I'd Sell Bitcoin, But I Will Never Be a Net Seller

**Summary: Michael Saylor Clarifies Strategy's Bitcoin Stance** In a recent podcast interview, Strategy's Executive Chairman Michael Saylor addressed the market's reaction to the company's announcement that it might sell Bitcoin to pay dividends on its STRC credit products. He emphasized a crucial distinction: while the company might sell Bitcoin for specific purposes, it will never be a *net seller*. Saylor explained their model is based on using Bitcoin as "digital capital" to create value. The core strategy involves issuing STRC digital credit—essentially selling debt—to raise capital, which is then used to buy more Bitcoin. He estimates Bitcoin appreciates at roughly 40% annually. A small portion of these capital gains (e.g., ~2.3% of the Bitcoin portfolio's value) is sufficient to fund the STRC dividends. Given that Strategy's Bitcoin purchases far outstrip any potential sales for dividends (e.g., buying $3.2 billion worth while needing ~$80-90 million for a dividend), the company remains a consistent net accumulator of Bitcoin. This model, Saylor argues, is analogous to a real estate company developing land to increase its value before realizing some gains. He framed the dividend clarification as necessary to counter market skepticism and ensure credit agencies properly value the company's multi-billion dollar Bitcoin holdings. Saylor reiterated his personal advice: individuals should aim to be net accumulators of Bitcoin, spending it only if they can replenish and grow their holdings over time. Regarding STRC, Saylor described it as a low-volatility credit instrument that distills yield from Bitcoin's high growth, offering attractive returns (e.g., ~11-12% yield) for risk-averse investors. He noted that Strategy's STRC issuance now constitutes about 60% of the U.S. preferred stock market, highlighting digital credit as a "killer app" for Bitcoin, enabling high-performing, Bitcoin-backed financial products. He dismissed notions that Strategy's trading could move the highly liquid Bitcoin market, attributing price movements primarily to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. Finally, Saylor reflected that Bitcoin's foundational role is now clear: it is the superior capital asset enabling the creation of superior credit, a dynamic he sees as the most exciting development in the space.

marsbit20h ago

Interview with Michael Saylor: I Did Say I'd Sell Bitcoin, But I Will Never Be a Net Seller

marsbit20h ago

BIT Research: Why Could Gold Rush to $5,000 Faster After the Sudden Plunge?

The article "BIT Research: After Gold's Sharp Decline, Why Could It Reach $5,000 Faster?" presents a bullish outlook for gold despite recent price drops. It argues that the core bullish structure remains intact, with the recent sell-off seen as a correction rather than a trend reversal. The primary drivers are expected to be a re-pricing of the US dollar and the interest rate path. The market currently prices in a potential 2026 rate hike, yet simultaneously expects a more dovish stance from incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, creating a contradiction. A correction of these expectations could weaken the dollar and lower real rates, fueling gold's ascent. Additionally, the expanding US national debt provides long-term structural support. Technically, gold is forming a consolidation pattern with higher lows, suggesting underlying strength. Quantitative and trend models have turned bullish, with historical data from similar signals pointing to an average ~12.8% gain over two months, projecting a target near $5,306. Key upcoming catalysts include the June FOMC meeting, the July BRICS summit, and the September US fiscal cliff. In summary, the convergence of a potential dollar downturn, interest rate re-pricing, supportive technicals, and upcoming macro events could propel gold into a new phase of accelerated growth, with $5,300 as a near-term target.

marsbit05/08 07:39

BIT Research: Why Could Gold Rush to $5,000 Faster After the Sudden Plunge?

marsbit05/08 07:39

Weekly Editor's Picks (0418-0424)

Weekly Editor's Picks (0418-0424) provides in-depth analysis on key developments across macro trends, crypto markets, and policy. Key topics include the oil market nearing a physical supply crisis due to shipping disruptions, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. In crypto, reports cover global consumer crypto adoption, a data-driven strategy for trading volatile altcoins, and the state of VC funding. Prediction markets like Polymarket are analyzed not as pure event-guessing games but as systems where understanding legalistic rules creates an edge. Major DeFi protocol Aave is criticized for poor crisis management amid a $300M exploit, while the controversial structure of World Liberty Financial is examined. Other highlights include policy updates like the CLARITY Act, Ethereum’s, airdrop opportunities, and weekly recaps of major incidents like the Kelp DAO hack and SpaceX's AI disclosures.

marsbit04/25 02:47

Q2 2026 Bitcoin Valuation: Why $143,000 Remains Achievable?

In Q2 2026, Bitcoin's valuation target of $143,000 remains achievable, representing a potential 2x upside from the current $70,500 price. Despite a 27% decline since Q1, the overall macro environment remains supportive. Global M2 liquidity hit a record $13.44 trillion, though Chinese-driven liquidity (over 60% of growth) has limited access to Bitcoin markets. U.S. monetary policy, a key driver, faced delays due to Iran conflict-induced oil price spikes, pushing March CPI to 3.3% and reducing Fed rate cut expectations. However, the easing direction persists. On-chain metrics show recovery from panic zones, with key resistance at $78,000 (long-term holder cost basis). Institutional flows turned positive, with Bitcoin ETFs seeing net inflows and corporate buying accelerating. Yet, network activity reveals stagnation—active addresses fell 13.2% YoY, suggesting superficial transaction growth. The revised $143K target (down from $185.5K in Q1) applies a -10% adjustment for weak fundamentals (BTCFi ecosystem contraction) and +20% for macro support. Key catalysts include breaking $78K, sustained ETF inflows, and geopolitical stability aiding Fed policy shifts.

marsbit04/24 02:12

Q2 2026 Bitcoin Valuation: Why $143,000 Remains Achievable?

marsbit04/24 02:12

Dialogue with Xinhuo Chief Economist Fu Peng: Macro Bear Market Expected to End This Year, Prioritize Allocation to Value Assets

Fu Peng, Chief Economist at New Huo Group, discusses the integration of crypto assets into traditional finance, marking a shift from a speculative phase to institutionalization. He highlights the current era as the second major fusion of finance and technology, driven by AI, data, and computing power, with crypto assets becoming part of the FICC+C (Fixed Income, Currencies, Commodities + Crypto) framework. Regulatory clarity in the U.S., such as the GENIUS and Clarity Acts, has paved the way for institutional adoption by defining digital assets as financial instruments. Fu views RWA (Real World Assets) as a tool for asset tokenization rather than a standalone asset class, noting that financial innovation differs between Eastern and Western markets due to cultural approaches to risk and regulation. He emphasizes that stablecoins are essential for future finance, but Asian markets, including Hong Kong, will adopt them cautiously. Macro liquidity now significantly influences crypto markets, as institutional participation increases correlation with traditional assets. Fu suggests the macro-driven bear market may end by year-end, reducing the relevance of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. For asset allocation, he recommends value-oriented AI stocks for stability, Bitcoin for moderate certainty, and Ethereum for higher volatility.

marsbit04/23 09:03

Dialogue with Xinhuo Chief Economist Fu Peng: Macro Bear Market Expected to End This Year, Prioritize Allocation to Value Assets

marsbit04/23 09:03

Exploring Bitcoin Valuation in 2026 from Macro and On-Chain Structural Perspectives

Tiger Research analyzes Bitcoin's valuation outlook for 2026 from macro and on-chain perspectives. Despite a 27% price drop in Q1, the macro environment remains supportive. Global M2 hit a record $13.44 trillion, but Chinese liquidity, which contributed over 60% of M2 growth, has limited access to Bitcoin markets. The Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher, raising March CPI to 3.3% and narrowing the Fed's rate cut path. However, the easing direction remains intact. Bitcoin ETF flows turned positive in March after five months of outflows, and corporate accumulation continues. On-chain metrics show a shift from undervaluation to early equilibrium. Key indicators like MVRV-Z and NUPL have exited panic zones. The critical resistance is at $78k, the long-term holder cost basis, while the key support is at $54k. Although transaction counts increased, active addresses and average transfer size declined, indicating superficial growth rather than real network expansion. BTCFi ecosystem growth has weakened, leading to a -10% adjustment in fundamental metrics. The 12-month price target is set at $143k, based on a $132.5k neutral benchmark adjusted by -10% (fundamentals) and +20% (macro). This represents a 103% upside from current levels. Short-term catalysts include a break above $78k, sustained ETF inflows, and a Fed policy shift post-geopolitical de-escalation.

marsbit04/22 08:14

Exploring Bitcoin Valuation in 2026 from Macro and On-Chain Structural Perspectives

marsbit04/22 08:14

The Second Half of Macro Influencer Fu Peng's Career

Fu Peng, a prominent Chinese macroeconomist and former chief economist of Northeast Securities, has joined Hong Kong-based digital asset management firm Bitfire Group (formerly New Huo Group) as its chief economist. This move, announced in April 2026, triggered an 11% surge in Bitfire's stock price. Fu, known for his accessible macroeconomic commentary and large social media following, will focus on integrating digital assets into global asset allocation frameworks, particularly combining FICC (fixed income, currencies, and commodities) with cryptocurrencies for institutional clients. His career includes roles at Lehman Brothers and Solomon International, with significant influence gained through public communication. However, in late 2024, Fu faced temporary social media bans after a controversial private speech at HSBC on China's economic challenges, though he denied regulatory sanctions. He later left Northeast Securities citing health reasons. Bitfire, a licensed virtual asset manager serving high-net-worth clients, seeks to build trust and attract traditional capital through Fu’s expertise and credibility. The partnership represents a strategic shift for both: Fu enters the crypto sector after a traditional finance peak, while Bitfire aims to leverage his macro framework for institutional adoption. Outcomes remain uncertain regarding capital inflows and compatibility within corporate structure.

marsbit04/21 01:33

The Second Half of Macro Influencer Fu Peng's Career

marsbit04/21 01:33

Bitcoin Trading Strategy Breakdown: Celebrity Predictions and Classic Models All Fail, Only These Four Indicators Remain

Analysis of Bitcoin Trading Strategies: Why Celebrity Forecasts and Classic Models Fail, Leaving Only These Four Reliable Indicators This analysis examines the failure of common Bitcoin prediction methods and identifies four reliable indicators for constructing a trading strategy. The author reviewed all major BTC prediction approaches from 2017-2025, categorizing them into three groups: celebrity price targets (consistently over-optimistic), analytical models like Stock-to-Flow (broken post-2022), and on-chain signals. The key finding is that more data often creates confusion, not clarity. The strategy discards unreliable elements: celebrity predictions (incentivized to be extreme), pure models (invalidated by post-ETF market changes), and the Fear & Greed Index used alone (too many false signals). Four reliable indicators were selected: 1. **MVRV Z-Score:** Accurately identifies cycle bottoms when entering its green zone (e.g., 2018, 2020, 2022). Note: Its ability to call tops is now ineffective post-2024. 2. **SOPR (28-day MA):** Consistently signals bottoms when below 1.0, indicating holders are selling at a loss. 3. **ETF Net Flow:** A crucial post-2024 metric showing institutional momentum (e.g., sustained inflows = buying). 4. **Macro Liquidity (Fed policy & M2):** Sets the overall directional bias (e.g., bullish during easing cycles). The core strategy involves waiting for a multi-signal共振 (resonance). For example, a bottom signal requires MVRV in the green zone + SOPR < 1.0. A top signal requires overheated on-chain data + sustained ETF outflows. Macro policy sets the overall direction. The Fear & Greed Index is only used as a weighted confirmatory signal, never alone. Action is only taken when three or more indicators align. The author automated this into a monitoring system that sends Telegram alerts only when signals trigger. As of the article's date (April 15, 2026), the system showed a strong bottom signal: extreme fear (F&G=12), MVRV in the buy zone, and SOPR < 1.0. The only contrary signal was weak ETF flows. Historically, such triple on-chain共振 has preceded 100%+ returns. The conclusion emphasizes building a personal framework over relying on external predictions, allowing for iterative improvement and customization based on individual risk tolerance.

marsbit04/17 08:08

Bitcoin Trading Strategy Breakdown: Celebrity Predictions and Classic Models All Fail, Only These Four Indicators Remain

marsbit04/17 08:08

Expanding Glassnode: Macro and Traditional Finance Data

Glassnode is expanding its product offering to include macroeconomic and traditional finance (TradFi) data, recognizing that digital assets like Bitcoin are now a mainstream asset class increasingly influenced by global financial forces. As institutional participation grows—evidenced by Bitcoin ETFs surpassing $100 billion in AUM by early 2026—Bitcoin's price is more affected by monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and macroeconomic trends. Key metrics now integrated include central bank balance sheets, money supply (M2), interest rates, and government bond yields, which help contextualize Bitcoin within global liquidity cycles. The platform also tracks equity indices, fear gauges, forex rates, and commodities to assess risk appetite and market stress. This shift reflects a structural change: Bitcoin's correlation with traditional risk assets like the S&P 500 has strengthened, driven by institutional capital, post-COVID liquidity cycles, and ETF adoption. Glassnode aims to provide a unified platform for analyzing both on-chain and TradFi data, enabling users to better interpret market moves and regime shifts in a maturing digital asset ecosystem.

insights.glassnode04/16 12:52

Expanding Glassnode: Macro and Traditional Finance Data

insights.glassnode04/16 12:52

BitMart Research Institute's Weekly Hotspot Analysis: U.S.-Iran Détente Coupled with Fed's Hawkish Pivot, Crypto Market Follows Suit in Rebound and Bottoming

BitMart Research Weekly Analysis: U.S.-Iran De-escalation and Fed’s Hawkish Turn Drive Crypto Market Rebound and Bottom-Building Macro Overview: Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran show signs of easing, supporting a rebound in risk assets including equities and oil. U.S. stocks, particularly in AI-related sectors, rebounded strongly. The latest FOMC minutes revealed a more hawkish tone, with “rate hikes” entering discussions, though the majority of members remain focused on labor market conditions. March CPI rose due to energy prices, but core CPI was softer. Sustained high oil prices may push supercore inflation higher in the coming months, potentially influencing Fed policy. Crypto Market Performance: BTC and ETH followed the upward trend in equities, supported by improved risk sentiment and expectations around crypto regulatory clarity (e.g., Clarity Act). However, some long-term indicators suggest the market may still be in a bear phase or experiencing bottom consolidation. The $60,000 level is seen as a key support for BTC. Altcoins lack fundamental drivers and remain highly volatile with strong manipulative tendencies, making BTC and ETH more reliable for strategic allocation. Trading and Fund Flows: Spot trading volume remains low, but active buying interest is noticeable. Perpetual swap funding rates are negative, indicating short dominance, while options markets show no significant rise in fear. Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows, including a single-day inflow of $421 million. MicroStrategy accelerated its BTC accumulation, adding nearly 14,000 BTC recently. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

marsbit04/14 03:29

BitMart Research Institute's Weekly Hotspot Analysis: U.S.-Iran Détente Coupled with Fed's Hawkish Pivot, Crypto Market Follows Suit in Rebound and Bottoming

marsbit04/14 03:29