# Fair Value Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Fair Value", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Charles Schwab Calculated and Revealed the Fair Value of Bitcoin (BTC)! Here's What It Should Be!

The article discusses a recent analysis by Charles Schwab's head of crypto research, Jim Ferraroli, on Bitcoin's fair value. Despite Bitcoin's price dropping to around $63,000 due to market sell-offs and Federal Reserve interest rate concerns, Ferraroli asserts its fair value is approximately $95,000. This valuation is based on Bitcoin mining economics, specifically production costs, rather than short-term market sentiment. He notes that while efficient miners produce one BTC for about $60,000, the cost can rise to $95,000 for less efficient operations. Ferraroli compares this to traditional commodities, where production costs are a key valuation metric. He emphasizes that the $95,000 figure is an economic estimate, not a price target. Additionally, he identifies the ~$60,000 mining cost level as a crucial fundamental support zone for Bitcoin, aligning with its 200-week moving average. Ferraroli concludes that it's uncertain whether Bitcoin will reach $95,000 within the next six months. The piece includes a standard disclaimer that this is not investment advice.

cryptonews.ru15h ago

Charles Schwab Calculated and Revealed the Fair Value of Bitcoin (BTC)! Here's What It Should Be!

cryptonews.ru15h ago

The Preferred Stock Domino Effect: Strive Incurs a 7.08 Million Dollar Loss, Strategic Risk Spreading in a Chain Reaction

"Priority Stock Domino Effect": Strive's $7.08 Million Loss Reveals Chain-Reaction Risk in Bitcoin Reserve Sector Bitcoin reserve company-issued preferred shares are no longer just yield assets but a credit test for balance sheet health. While focus remains on Strategy, Strive, the 7th largest public Bitcoin holder, disclosed a tangible spillover effect: its holding of Strategy's (STRC) preferred shares lost $7.08 million in fair value over eight days, despite no change in share count. This exposes a clear cross-company risk transmission channel within the sector. Strive's filing shows its 505,000 STRC shares fell from ~$88.59 to ~$74.57 per share. While Strive remains solvent with 19,864 BTC and $141.7M cash, the loss signals that preferred stock risks can spread via inter-company holdings, shifting their perception from stable income to credit-like, high-risk assets dependent on issuer liquidity and dividend sustainability. In response, Strategy unveiled a "Digital Credit Capital Framework," raising STRC's annual dividend to 12%, mandating a 12-month cash reserve for dividends, and authorizing up to $1B each for STRC/common stock buybacks and a $1.25B Bitcoin sale plan to bolster reserves. This marks a shift to active credit risk management, formally incorporating potential Bitcoin sales to stabilize its capital structure. Third-party valuation tools, like Farside's calculator estimating STRC's net present value at ~$49.89, highlight that pricing now hinges critically on perpetual dividend sustainability and the issuer's ability to pay amid market volatility. Bitcoin's price (~$62k) remains below Strategy's average cost basis ($75,651), intensifying focus on reserve policies. The market faces two scenarios: 1) Contained risk, where STRC's discount narrows and stress is limited to Strategy; or 2) Systemic risk, where deep STRC discounts persist, dividend hikes fail, Bitcoin sales commence, and pressure spreads to other issuers like Strive's SATA shares. Key indicators to watch are STRC/SATA discount levels, dividend coverage credibility, equity issuance rates, and any actual Bitcoin divestment. Strive's future reports will be crucial in determining if its loss is an isolated event or the first sign of sector-wide credit risk contagion via preferred shares.

marsbit07/09 09:01

The Preferred Stock Domino Effect: Strive Incurs a 7.08 Million Dollar Loss, Strategic Risk Spreading in a Chain Reaction

marsbit07/09 09:01

Strive's Paper Loss Warning: Pressure from Strategy Preferred Shares Has Spread Across the Entire Bitcoin Treasury Track

Strive's disclosure that its holdings of Strategy's (STRC) preferred shares lost $7.08 million in value over eight days signals that credit risks are spreading across the Bitcoin reserve industry through cross-holdings. While not proof of insolvency, it shows how valuation pressure on one firm's securities can directly impact another's balance sheet. Strategy responded with a comprehensive credit management framework, including raising STRC dividends to 12%, authorizing share buybacks, and formalizing a plan to potentially sell Bitcoin to bolster its $2.55 billion cash reserve. However, third-party models value STRC at around $49.89 per share, far below its $100 face value, highlighting that its price depends critically on the sustainability of dividends and Strategy's financial health. The market now watches for two scenarios: either the risk is contained to Strategy, or it spreads industry-wide if STRC's discount deepens, dividends become unsustainable, and pressure spills over to securities like Strive's SATA. Key indicators to monitor are the discount rates of STRC and SATA, cash coverage for dividends, share issuance activity, and whether Bitcoin sales move from authorization to execution.

Foresight News07/09 07:10

Strive's Paper Loss Warning: Pressure from Strategy Preferred Shares Has Spread Across the Entire Bitcoin Treasury Track

Foresight News07/09 07:10

Bitcoin Enters Bull Regime As Taker Flow Surge Drives $3,400 Premium

Bitcoin has reclaimed the $70,000 level and is testing resistance near $74,000, signaling renewed bullish momentum. According to analyst Axel Adler, the Bitcoin Integrated Market Index has flipped back into a bullish regime, currently at 96, after a bearish period from mid-February. Key indicators show Bitcoin trading at a $3,453 premium above its Fair Value, with a Price Index of 95.35, suggesting strong buyer interest. The market structure shifted on March 10 as taker flow reversed and open interest expanded. A break above $74K could target the $82K–$90K range, though failure may lead to consolidation.

bitcoinist03/17 02:35

Bitcoin Enters Bull Regime As Taker Flow Surge Drives $3,400 Premium

bitcoinist03/17 02:35

Unlocking the 'Golden Key' in Prediction Markets Through 27.73 Million Transaction Data: 690 K-Line Strategies Struggle to Profit

The article investigates whether a profitable "golden key" strategy exists in prediction markets, using an analysis of 27.73 million transactions over 3,082 fifteen-minute BTC prediction markets. The study debunks several common approaches: Technical analysis based solely on price action, tested across 690 combinations of entry/exit points, stop-loss, and take-profit levels, yielded no positive expected value. Even high-win-rate strategies, like buying at 90% and selling at 99%, resulted in negative expectations due to poor risk-reward ratios. Similarly, arbitrage strategies aiming to profit from YES+NO prices below 1 were also unprofitable after accounting for real-world constraints. The research identifies two potentially viable strategies: 1. **Momentum-based trading**: A brief ~30-second window exists after sharp BTC price moves (>$150-$200) where prediction market token prices lag, allowing manual traders to capitalize on this inefficiency before algorithms adjust. 2. **Fair value model**: A model calculating a token's theoretical win probability based on BTC's volatility and time to expiry revealed that markets are inefficient. Profitable opportunities arise only when tokens trade at a significant discount (>10 cents) to their fair value. Buying at a premium, even with high win probability, leads to negative expected returns. The conclusion advises traders to abandon pure price-based technical analysis, focus on the underlying asset (BTC), respect probability valuations, and only buy at a discount to fair value to avoid being systematically outperformed by algorithms.

marsbit02/20 04:02

Unlocking the 'Golden Key' in Prediction Markets Through 27.73 Million Transaction Data: 690 K-Line Strategies Struggle to Profit

marsbit02/20 04:02

Do Stablecoins Really Count as Cash? After the Genius Act, Accounting Standards for Stablecoins May Be Adjusted

The U.S. Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) has added two crypto-related projects to its 2026 agenda: whether certain stablecoins can be classified as cash equivalents, and how to account for transfers of crypto assets. This follows the passage of the Genius Act, a regulatory framework for stablecoins, and reflects ongoing political support for the crypto industry from the Trump administration. FASB’s move aims to address accounting grey areas, such as when to derecognize crypto assets and how to treat wrapped tokens. These issues impact financial transparency, risk disclosure, and comparability for investors. Although FASB introduced fair-value accounting rules for crypto in 2023, significant gaps remain, particularly around the definition and treatment of stablecoins. Some critics argue the agenda is politically motivated rather than driven by widespread corporate adoption. However, as the Genius Act takes effect in 2027, stablecoin usage is expected to grow, increasing the urgency for clearer accounting guidance. FASB Chair Rich Jones emphasized the importance of defining what does—and does not—qualify as a cash equivalent. The SEC has also acknowledged the difficulty of applying existing accounting frameworks to crypto assets.

marsbit01/05 04:12

Do Stablecoins Really Count as Cash? After the Genius Act, Accounting Standards for Stablecoins May Be Adjusted

marsbit01/05 04:12

After Profiting $580K, I'm Shorting $1M Worth of ETH Again

Taiki Maeda is shorting $1 million worth of ETH again, arguing that its price is artificially inflated and due for a significant correction. He believes Ethereum's current price is unsustainable, driven primarily by large-scale purchases from entities like Tom Lee’s Bitwise, rather than organic demand or real-world usage. Taiki points out that Tom Lee’s aggressive buying has temporarily propped up ETH’s price, but once this buying slows or stops—especially after key incentive deadlines like January 15, 2026—ETH could fall sharply toward what he estimates as its "fair value" of $1,200–$2,200. He also highlights broader market risks, including a lack of new buyers, potential MSTR delisting pressures, and the speculative, "PvP" nature of current crypto trading. Despite acknowledging Ethereum’s technological strengths, Taiki emphasizes that good technology doesn’t always translate to a good investment. He encourages a cautious approach, noting that true wealth-building opportunities arise during market lows, not euphoric peaks. His short position reflects a view that ETH is overheated and primed for a downturn.

深潮12/18 11:20

After Profiting $580K, I'm Shorting $1M Worth of ETH Again

深潮12/18 11:20

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