# Drawdown Related Articles

HTX News Center provides the latest articles and in-depth analysis on "Drawdown", covering market trends, project updates, tech developments, and regulatory policies in the crypto industry.

Want to Follow SpaceX? Data Shows 30 Star U.S. IPO Stocks Mostly Halve in First Year

"SpaceX is set for a historic IPO on June 12 under ticker SPCX, pricing at $135 per share to raise $75 billion at a valuation of about $1.75 trillion. However, data from Motley Fool on 30 high-profile tech IPOs since 2012 reveals a challenging pattern for new investors. Median returns were -9% after six and twelve months, with a median maximum drawdown of 54% in the first year. No company avoided a significant decline, including later successes like Meta and Palantir. Morningstar estimates SpaceX's fair value at only around $780 billion, less than half its IPO valuation. Despite SpaceX's dominant market share in U.S. rocket launches and a profitable Starlink subscriber base, its financials show a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025 and a trailing twelve-month revenue of $18.7 billion, resulting in a price-to-sales ratio exceeding 90. Analysts caution that while the IPO may see initial gains, historical trends suggest a high probability of substantial price declines and volatility in the following year."

marsbit4h ago

Want to Follow SpaceX? Data Shows 30 Star U.S. IPO Stocks Mostly Halve in First Year

marsbit4h ago

Bitcoin HODLer Pain Surpasses FTX Crash Levels As BTC Drawdown Deepens

Bitcoin long-term holders (those holding coins for over 155 days) are experiencing significant losses, with 5.3 million BTC currently held at an unrealized loss. This level surpasses the peak seen during the 2022 FTX crash bear market and is the highest since the COVID-19 crash in March 2020. The sharp increase follows recent price declines, with Bitcoin trading around $64,000, down over 13% in a week. Historically, such extreme readings in long-term holder loss supply have often coincided with market lows and potential trend reversals. The analyst suggests the high level of underwater supply indicates the market's adjustment process is still ongoing.

bitcoinist06/05 03:01

Bitcoin HODLer Pain Surpasses FTX Crash Levels As BTC Drawdown Deepens

bitcoinist06/05 03:01

$100/Month in Bitcoin Since 2015 Would Have Turned $13,700 Into $632,000, Coinbird Analysis Shows

Coinbird analysis shows that disciplined monthly Bitcoin investments since 2015 would have yielded extraordinary returns. A $100/month Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) plan starting in January 2015 would have resulted in 137 purchases totaling $13,700. As of May 2026, this would have accumulated 8.219 BTC worth approximately $632,315, a +4,515% return, with an average acquisition cost of $1,667 per BTC. However, the popular "just DCA" narrative oversimplifies reality. While DCA starting near the May 2021 peak still returned +84.34% by May 2026 (outperforming a lump-sum investment's +43% in that specific period), lump-sum investing actually beat DCA in tested 1-, 2-, 3-, and 4-year scenarios. The DCA advantage typically emerged only after a full market crash-and-recovery cycle, highlighting its dependence on start date and market conditions. Critically, even long-term DCA investors endured severe volatility, experiencing a maximum drawdown of -76.72% during the 2022 bear market, underscoring the psychological difficulty of the strategy. The findings, based on Coinbird's DCA Calculator using historical price data, demonstrate that while automated buying through market cycles can produce significant long-term results, it does not eliminate risk or the challenge of holding through major declines.

TheNewsCrypto05/19 12:51

$100/Month in Bitcoin Since 2015 Would Have Turned $13,700 Into $632,000, Coinbird Analysis Shows

TheNewsCrypto05/19 12:51

Bitcoin: Why analysts warn BTC could drop to $38K in current cycle

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a recent brief positive shift in the Coinbase Premium, indicating a potential return of U.S. investor demand for the first time since December. However, analysts caution this may be a fakeout and that the premium must remain positive for several days to confirm a true recovery. Market volatility is elevated, with realized volatility reaching its highest level since 2022, signaling significant price swings. Options data from Glassnode shows high implied volatility, indicating the market is anticipating a potential 14% price move in the next month. The put skew in options further suggests traders are hedging against a possible downturn. Analyst projections, based on historical cycle drawdowns, warn that Bitcoin could drop to $38k in the current cycle, representing a 70%–75% decline from its all-time high. Current evidence suggests the market bottom has likely not yet been reached.

ambcrypto02/28 21:01

Bitcoin: Why analysts warn BTC could drop to $38K in current cycle

ambcrypto02/28 21:01

Bitcoin Losses Now Equal 19% Of Market Cap, Echoing May 2022

Analytics firm Glassnode reports that Bitcoin's current market conditions resemble those of May 2022, based on the surge in Relative Unrealized Loss. This metric, which measures the total unrealized losses of all underwater Bitcoin holders as a percentage of the market cap, has risen sharply to 19% amid recent price declines. The current level is the highest since 2023, and the trend mirrors the pattern observed during the onset of the 2022 bear market. Additionally, US spot Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing their largest drawdown in history, with outflows of over 100,300 BTC, indicating institutional de-risking and reinforcing a risk-off market environment. Bitcoin is currently trading around $66,700, showing signs of consolidation.

bitcoinist02/21 07:32

Bitcoin Losses Now Equal 19% Of Market Cap, Echoing May 2022

bitcoinist02/21 07:32

Ethereum bulls fight ‘conviction crisis’ – THESE 3 indicators suggest more drawdown

Ethereum is trading near the $2,000 level, a price zone not seen since its consolidation period in March-May 2025, amid a broader market lack of conviction. Analysis indicates the market is in a "cool-down phase," as measured by the Market Temperature metric hovering near zero. Historically, such phases precede potential rebounds, but a sustainable recovery requires time and stronger bullish conviction. Currently, demand remains weak, evidenced by tepid institutional inflows into spot ETH ETFs and muted spot market activity. While declining exchange supply is a theoretically bullish signal, it is insufficient to drive a rally without a significant pickup in demand and improved market sentiment. Consequently, ETH remains vulnerable to further downside or range-bound trading until these conditions align.

ambcrypto02/17 14:02

Ethereum bulls fight ‘conviction crisis’ – THESE 3 indicators suggest more drawdown

ambcrypto02/17 14:02

$55,000 Will Be Bitcoin's Make-or-Break Line

Bitcoin is currently testing a critical threshold at $55,000, which may determine the structural integrity of its four-year market cycle. Historical data shows diminishing peak-to-peak growth multiples: 15.9× (2013–2017), 3.5× (2017–2021), and a projected 1.8× for the current cycle (2021–2025). This compressed upside—coupled with a recent drawdown exceeding 44% from the anticipated peak of ~$126,000 to ~$60,000—threatens the sustainability of Bitcoin’s long-term growth model. A drop below $55,000 would imply a 56% retracement and break key technical supports, including the 3000-day trendline and the previous cycle’s all-time high of $69,000. Such a breach could signal the failure of the classic cycle model, where high volatility no longer justifies reduced returns. The market now faces three potential paths: glory (reduced volatility, stabilized growth), destruction (cycle model breakdown), or reset (new demand drivers like sovereign adoption or structural capital inflows). The outcome hinges on whether Bitcoin can hold above $55,000. If it fails, the historical cycle framework may be irreparably broken.

marsbit02/10 06:39

$55,000 Will Be Bitcoin's Make-or-Break Line

marsbit02/10 06:39

Bitcoin Correction Accelerates Toward Historic Capitulation Zone – Details

Bitcoin is struggling to hold above $70,000 amid weakening demand and sustained selling pressure, with the current correction reaching approximately 46% from its October 2025 peak of around $124,450. Analyst Axel Adler notes this decline has entered a deeper bearish phase, approaching the historically significant 1.25× Realized Price Band—a level that often distinguishes standard corrections from capitulation. While the current drawdown is less severe than those in previous cycles (such as -93% in 2011 or -76% in 2021–2022), a break below the -50% threshold could signal further downside toward -60% to -70%. Short-term direction hinges on whether Bitcoin stabilizes or breaks lower, reflecting fragile sentiment and thinning liquidity.

bitcoinist02/10 05:02

Bitcoin Correction Accelerates Toward Historic Capitulation Zone – Details

bitcoinist02/10 05:02

Bitcoin Price Unlikely To See A 77% Drawdown Again – Bitwise CIO

Bitcoin has experienced significant recent declines, but Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan suggests the worst may be over. In a recent report, he cited multiple factors for the downturn, including market cycle dynamics, shifting investor attention to AI and metals, and the major liquidation event on October 10, 2025, triggered by U.S. trade policy. Other concerns included Federal Reserve leadership speculation and macro risk-off sentiment. However, Hougan notes that long-term holders have slowed selling, and derivatives open interest has dropped to 2024 levels. While further declines are possible, he believes Bitcoin is now a more mature asset and unlikely to repeat past 77% drawdowns. Bear markets, he concludes, typically end in exhaustion rather than excitement. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $67,834, up over 4% in 24 hours.

bitcoinist02/07 22:01

Bitcoin Price Unlikely To See A 77% Drawdown Again – Bitwise CIO

bitcoinist02/07 22:01

Nietzschean Penguin hits ATH, then crashes – Why ‘scarcity’ fails to save bulls

Nietzschean Penguin (PENGUIN), a memecoin with a fixed supply of 1 billion tokens, experienced a rapid surge from under $0.01 to an all-time high near $0.167 in late January, driven by hype and speculative interest rather than organic demand. However, the price quickly collapsed, falling roughly 75% to the $0.037–$0.042 range. The decline was exacerbated by thin liquidity, increased selling pressure, and a major whale exiting at a significant loss. Despite its scarcity narrative and viral-themed branding, the token’s lack of utility and weak market structure led to high volatility and a sharp correction, demonstrating that narrative alone cannot sustain price without solid fundamentals.

ambcrypto02/01 20:01

Nietzschean Penguin hits ATH, then crashes – Why ‘scarcity’ fails to save bulls

ambcrypto02/01 20:01

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