Chatbot has been burning money for three years, is it still the 'New Continent' of the AI era?
For years, the AI industry has been guided by a singular "map" — the belief that the AI era's "new continent" would be found in the Chatbot, a super-app akin to the mobile internet's super-apps. This belief was fueled by ChatGPT's explosive 2022 debut. However, three years of heavy investment reveal a different reality: the Chatbot-as-ultimate-entry-point model is struggling.
The core issue is economic. Chatbots defy traditional internet economics. Unlike apps with near-zero marginal cost, each AI query consumes significant, expensive compute. More users mean higher costs, not profits. OpenAI, despite ~900M weekly active users, reportedly loses money. The expected network effects and data flywheels that power internet giants are weak in Chatbots, as one user's interactions don't improve another's experience.
Monetization is a major hurdle. The subscription model faces low conversion rates, especially in China where users expect AI to be free. The "free + ads" model also struggles. Chatbot interactions often lack commercial intent, and inserting ads compromises the trust essential for an answer engine. Perplexity's minimal ad revenue and subsequent pivot away from ads highlight this difficulty. Switching between Chatbots is easy, making user loyalty low and competition a potential race to the bottom on price.
Data suggests the standalone Chatbot's growth is slowing, and user engagement (avg. ~6 mins/day) pales compared to apps like TikTok. The product form itself is limiting; studies show nearly half of interactions are simple Q&A, trapping AI's potential in a passive, single-turn "cage."
A contrasting, more successful path is emerging, exemplified by Anthropic. With over 85% of its ~$30B annualized revenue from enterprises, it focuses on AI as a productivity tool, not a companion. The rise of AI Agents (like OpenClaw) and the integration of AI into existing workflows (e.g., Google's AI Overviews, Apple Intelligence in OS) signal a shift. The future may not be a dominant Chatbot app, but AI embedded seamlessly into social apps, operating systems, and hardware — a capability-layer revolution, not a new distribution container.
The conclusion is clear: the old "map" centered on a standalone Chatbot super-app is leading to a dead end. To find the true valuable "continent" of the AI era, the industry must update its navigation to prioritize deep integration, practical utility, and sustainable economics over a generic conversation window.
marsbit06/02 10:35
