# Brent Related Articles

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Everyone Is Waiting for the War to End, But Does the Oil Price Suggest a Long-Term Conflict?

This article argues that the market views oil price volatility as a consequence of the ongoing conflict, but the real insight is understanding how the war itself is being priced through oil. With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, global crude supply is being restructured, with Asian buyers shifting to US oil, causing WTI to surpass Brent—a sign of structural changes in pricing and trade flows. While short-term price differences can be explained by contract timing, the deeper issue is a fundamental shift in who can supply oil. The market's key misjudgment is not on price, but on time. Futures curves still imply the conflict will end soon and supply will recover. However, the more likely path is a prolonged war of attrition. This means high oil prices are not a temporary shock but a new structural reality, with a range of $120-$150. In this framework, oil is no longer just a commodity but the "upstream variable" for all assets. Its repricing will ripple through interest rates, currencies, equity, and credit markets. The market has priced in the war's occurrence, but not its persistence. The analysis concludes that a prolonged conflict is the base case scenario, and any pullbacks in oil prices present an opportunity as the market has yet to fully price in a long-term disruption.

marsbit04/07 07:30

Everyone Is Waiting for the War to End, But Does the Oil Price Suggest a Long-Term Conflict?

marsbit04/07 07:30

Oil Prices Are Approaching a Tipping Point, What Will Happen in Mid-April?

Oil prices are approaching a critical inflection point, with mid-April identified as a key threshold. The ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has halted oil tanker traffic, resulting in a production loss of nearly 11 million barrels per day from key producers including Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain. The release of 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) has provided a temporary buffer, delaying immediate price spikes but not resolving the structural supply deficit. If the conflict ends before mid-April, Brent crude could retreat to the $80–90 range. However, if disruptions persist beyond mid-April, the market faces a cumulative inventory drawdown of 210 million barrels or more, pushing prices toward $110–120 or even demand-destructive levels above $200. The conflict has shifted from a cycle of escalation and de-escalation to a test of market endurance. Iran appears incentivized to prolong the situation until the market reaches a breaking point, strengthening its negotiating position. Even if resolved soon, supply losses have already altered long-term oil balances, suggesting a structurally higher price floor ahead.

marsbit04/05 13:02

Oil Prices Are Approaching a Tipping Point, What Will Happen in Mid-April?

marsbit04/05 13:02

Wall Street Collectively Pessimistic About 2026: Could an Oil Crisis Trigger an Economic Recession?

In late March, multiple major financial institutions—Moody's Analytics, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and EY-Parthenon—raised their 12-month recession probability forecasts for the U.S. to over 30%. Moody’s gave the highest estimate at 48.6%, followed by EY-Parthenon at 40%, J.P. Morgan at 35%, and Goldman Sachs at 30%. A key common factor is the sharp rise in oil prices, with Brent crude surpassing $100 per barrel in early March—the first time in four years—due to supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit route. Historical data indicates that four out of the five major oil price shocks since the 1970s led to economic recessions. Although the current price increase of around 80% is the smallest among them, the scale of supply disruption is described by the IEA as the largest since the 1970s energy crises. J.P. Morgan estimates that every sustained 10% increase in oil prices reduces U.S. GDP growth by 15–20 basis points. Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, outlined two extreme outcomes: either geopolitical resolution leads to oil prices falling to $40 and global growth, or prolonged conflict keeps prices above $100—possibly near $150—triggering a global recession. He ruled out a 2008-style systemic financial meltdown, citing stronger bank buffers. Beyond oil, declining consumer confidence and weak employment data are amplifying concerns. The convergence of pessimistic forecasts from different methodological approaches may itself influence economic behavior, potentially becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy as businesses and consumers become more cautious.

marsbit03/26 03:05

Wall Street Collectively Pessimistic About 2026: Could an Oil Crisis Trigger an Economic Recession?

marsbit03/26 03:05

International Oil Prices Open Higher Then Turn Lower, WTI Falls Over 1% Intraday, South Korean Stocks Briefly Rise Over 1%, US Stock Futures Advance

International oil prices opened higher but turned lower, with WTI crude falling over 1% to around $97.63 per barrel after initially surging more than 3%. Brent crude also retreated to near $103 after an early jump. Asian equities rose, with South Korea’s KOSPI gaining up to 1.4%, and U.S. stock futures advanced nearly 0.5%. The moves come amid easing Middle East tensions after two Indian-flagged vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz, and U.S. President Trump stated that Iran is ready to negotiate a ceasefire, though a deal has not yet been reached. U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, with the 10-year near 4.26%, erasing earlier yearly gains. The market continues to monitor geopolitical risks and central bank policy decisions amid ongoing inflation concerns.

华尔街日报03/16 07:13

International Oil Prices Open Higher Then Turn Lower, WTI Falls Over 1% Intraday, South Korean Stocks Briefly Rise Over 1%, US Stock Futures Advance

华尔街日报03/16 07:13

Analysis of Four Scenarios in the Crude Oil Market Amid the Iran Situation

The article analyzes four potential outcomes for the Iran-US tensions and their impact on oil markets. The base case (Scenario 1) expects no supply disruption, with a $7–9/bbl risk premium fading and Brent falling to the low-$60s. Scenario 2 anticipates limited military action causing 0–0.5 mb/d of short-term disruption, pushing prices briefly to the mid-to-high $70s before normalizing. Scenario 3 (low probability) involves broader Iranian export disruptions of 0.8–1.5 mb/d for 4–10 weeks. Scenario 4 (tail risk) considers shipping delays reducing fleet efficiency, effectively cutting 2–3 mb/d for weeks, spiking prices similarly to early 2022 but shorter-lived. The analysis emphasizes that current price strength reflects geopolitical risk, not physical tightness, and expects Brent to trend toward $60/bbl as risk fades and fundamentals soften.

marsbit02/28 05:34

Analysis of Four Scenarios in the Crude Oil Market Amid the Iran Situation