# Boom Related Articles

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How Long Will the Storage Boom Last?

Title: "How Long Can the Memory Boom Last?" (Author: Takashi Yunoue) Summary: The semiconductor industry, especially the memory market, is experiencing an unprecedented, explosive boom. Data (WSTS, 1991-2026) shows that while other categories like micros, logic, and analog grew steadily, memory shipments, particularly DRAM and NAND flash, have seen a near-vertical spike since 2024. Monthly memory shipments surged from ~$5.6B in 2016 to ~$63.3B in 2026, an 11x increase, with year-on-year growth reaching a staggering 285%. This dwarfs the previous peak of ~60% during the 2017-2018 memory bubble. The primary driver is not volume but a ~10x price surge for both DRAM and NAND, fueled by insatiable demand from AI data centers. Hyperscalers like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta are making massive capital investments (projected at $755B in 2026, ~36x growth since 2015), creating a "black hole" that absorbs GPUs, High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), and high-performance storage. This has diverted production capacity, causing severe shortages and price hikes for memory in consumer electronics (PCs, smartphones). While forecasts now predict the global semiconductor market will hit $1.5 trillion in 2026 and memory alone may surpass $1 trillion by 2027, the author warns this boom is unsustainable. Historical analysis of memory market growth rates over 35 years shows that periods of sustained annual growth have never exceeded five consecutive years, inevitably followed by a downturn due to the "silicon cycle" (demand surge → price rise → overinvestment → oversupply → price crash). Given the current boom started from a low in 2023/2024, a peak is expected by 2027-2028 at the latest. Furthermore, a fundamental rule applies: "The higher the peak, the deeper the valley." The unprecedented 285% growth peak suggests the subsequent recession could be the most severe in industry history. The author cautions that the current soaring stock prices and wealth creation in the memory sector are based on inflated expectations and urges companies to use this prosperous period to prepare practically for the inevitable downturn.

marsbit07/14 21:20

How Long Will the Storage Boom Last?

marsbit07/14 21:20

The US Stock Market in 2026, It's Almost Too Easy, and That Makes Me Nervous

The U.S. stock market's performance in 2026, particularly in the semiconductor memory sector, has generated significant returns that make some investors uneasy. A popular sentiment contrasts the perceived skill required for success in China's A-shares with the apparent ease of profiting from simply holding U.S. stocks. The primary driver is a global memory chip boom. Stocks like Micron, Seagate, Western Digital, and especially SanDisk (spinning off from WDC in 2025) have skyrocketed, with some gains exceeding 500% or even 2200%. Korean giants Samsung and SK Hynix, dominating their domestic index, have also surged. This rally is fueled by an AI-driven demand surge for memory like HBM (High-Bandwidth Memory), critical for AI chips. Tech giants like Google and Microsoft are placing massive, "unpriced" orders, while analysts continuously upgrade forecasts. SK Hynix reported its 2026 HBM capacity is already sold out. Despite record profits and sky-high margins (e.g., SK Hynix's 72% operating margin), major memory manufacturers are deliberately restricting capital expenditure and capacity expansion, controlling over 90% of DRAM supply. This supply discipline sustains high prices but draws parallels to cartel behavior. The situation presents two narratives. The bullish case sees AI demand as a structural, long-term shift with a prolonged supply gap. The bearish case, exemplified by short-seller Citron's failed bet against SanDisk, warns of a classic commodity cycle where prices eventually crash rapidly, as seen historically. The irony is noted: while retail investors marvel at easy gains, insiders like Western Digital are selling SanDisk shares at a 25% discount. Ultimately, the high cost of memory in consumer devices feeds into the record profits of memory companies and the soaring stock prices, leading many to question the sustainability of a market where making money seems "as easy as breathing."

marsbit05/08 02:57

The US Stock Market in 2026, It's Almost Too Easy, and That Makes Me Nervous

marsbit05/08 02:57

Raoul Pal says capital rotation could be fuelling Zcash boom

Real Vision founder Raoul Pal suggests the recent surge in privacy-focused cryptocurrency Zcash (ZEC) is more likely due to capital rotation rather than the start of a sustained bull trend. While Zcash is up over 699% year-to-date, its price has declined approximately 37% in the past month. Pal states it is too early to confirm a broader uptrend and that the key signal to watch is whether the asset can establish a strong base price before moving higher again. He is not eager to buy at current levels but might consider it in a future down cycle. The token's rise follows increased institutional interest, including a Grayscale filing to convert its Zcash fund into a spot ETF, and a price surge after a prediction by Arthur Hayes that it could reach $10,000.

cointelegraph12/19 04:13

Raoul Pal says capital rotation could be fuelling Zcash boom

cointelegraph12/19 04:13

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