Solana [SOL] has been trading within a range, for the most part, since the early February crash. This range reached from $78 to $92 and also represented a volatile day of trading that saw SOL drop from $92 to $78 on the 5th of March.
The fact that the price action has mostly been contained within this 1-day candlestick since then indicates a consolidation underway. Yet, this consolidation can have a few surprises left for the bulls.
Here’s why the next major SOL sell-off could be brewing
In a post on X, crypto analyst Ali Martinez pointed out why the 50-day Moving Average (MA) is important to the long-term Solana price trends. The analyst noted a pattern in play since November 2025, where SOL prices appeared to reclaim the 50-day MA, but were unable to do so for more than a short while.
A consolidation period under the 50-day MA, which was at $85.43 as of writing, has been succeeded by a sell-off since November 2025. The current consolidation could turn into another such bearish rout. This puts the range formation on the 1-day chart from earlier into context. It might not be the market participants testing out the local lows and establishing key demand zones.
Instead, Solana prices might be coiling before another southward expansion. The longer SOL remains unable to reclaim the 50-day MA and stay above it, the more likely such a sell-off would be, based on the past few months of price action.
This also ties in well with the long-term Solana trend expectations. AMBCrypto had reported in February that the $47.9 level was the next projected long-term price target. This was based on the weekly structure.
The higher timeframe bearish bias remained firm. The retest of the 2025 lows at $95.26 as resistance in March and the subsequent rejection solidified the claim that SOL would fall below the $50 round number level later in 2026.
Final Summary
- SOL reclaimed the 50-day moving average briefly before falling below this dynamic support once more.
- This pattern has occurred for the third time since November 2025. The previous two occurrences were followed by consolidation and a strong sell-off.
