SoftBank's Son, Bankrupted by Good Stories, Awaits His Next Alibaba

marsbitPublished on 2026-06-09Last updated on 2026-06-09

Abstract

Masayoshi Son is back. After years defined by Vision Fund's massive losses and costly missteps like WeWork—which shattered market confidence and led to billions in write-downs—Son has found redemption through AI. His early, high-conviction bets are paying off handsomely. Arm, acquired for $32 billion in 2016 and once a heavily leveraged burden, has become a gold mine amid the AI compute boom, delivering roughly a 10x return for SoftBank after its 2023 IPO. More crucially, SoftBank has made an enormous, concentrated bet on OpenAI, committing over $64 billion for a roughly 13% stake. This investment is already showing massive paper gains, contributing significantly to SoftBank's soaring valuation and propelling Son back to the top as Asia's richest person. The narrative has shifted from the "fool" who fell for grandiose stories to the visionary who endured a brutal downturn and is now being rewarded for his early faith in artificial intelligence.

Masayoshi Son is back.

In recent years, when people mention SoftBank, they no longer talk about him being Jack Ma's 'benefactor'. More often, they think of the failed investment in WeWork, the massive losses of the Vision Fund, and the Japanese investor who was repeatedly humbled by the market during the tech bubble.

But today, AI assets are being repriced. The value of Son's shares in Arm and OpenAI is rising. SoftBank's stock price has surged, Son's fortune has climbed back to the top, and he is once again Asia's richest person.

Evaporating $70 Billion

People fear the unknown, so someone who hasn't experienced a bubble bursting might be afraid.

But not Masayoshi Son. At 67, he has experienced the peak of the internet 20 years ago and was left bruised when the bubble burst.

Son was first chosen by fortune in the late 1990s. Back then, the internet was like a newly discovered magic. Yahoo, portals, e-commerce, online trading—anything related to the web was believed by the capital markets to be rewriting the world. SoftBank also changed during that time. It was no longer just a Japanese software company but became a massive basket filled with internet stocks. Son bet on Yahoo and Yahoo Japan, and SoftBank's stock price was pushed to dizzying heights by the bubble.

In early 2000, Son's wealth became unreal. At that time, his net worth could increase by about $10 billion in a week, even briefly surpassing Bill Gates to become the world's richest person for three days. A Japanese entrepreneur of Korean descent from Kyushu, relying on extreme belief in the internet, suddenly stood at the pinnacle of global wealth.

After the dot-com bubble burst, SoftBank's stock plummeted, and Son's personal wealth evaporated by about $70 billion from a peak of roughly $76 billion. However, Son wasn't written off as a failure of that bubble era because he still held Alibaba. In the autumn of 2014, Alibaba listed on the NYSE. With the huge success of this single investment, Son's personal wealth exceeded $58 billion. That's equivalent to Warren Buffett's total investment gains over 70 years.

It was the most important and successful venture capital investment in the history of China's internet. This investment forged Alibaba and also made Masayoshi Son.

Around 2017, the Vision Fund was established with a size close to $100 billion. Son became the person tech startups worldwide most wanted to meet and the most powerful money bag in Silicon Valley.

Armed with funds from the Middle East, Apple, Qualcomm, and others, he traveled through Silicon Valley, China, India, and Southeast Asia, pouring money into ride-sharing, food delivery, fintech, autonomous driving, and co-working spaces. Those companies all talked about scale, network effects, winner-takes-all, and changing the world.

Son Felt He Was Getting Old

Son's fall from grace this time started with WeWork.

An ordinary failed investment at most hurts profits, but WeWork damaged the market's trust in Son's judgment and his acumen.

In early 2019, WeWork's valuation was still as high as $47 billion. Its founder, Adam Neumann, was charismatic and wildly ambitious. He never described his company as just an office rental business but as a lifestyle, a community, a future work order.

Son liked this kind of person because he was one himself. He spent his life searching for founders who framed business on a human scale.

But not everyone bought it.

In August 2019, WeWork filed its IPO prospectus. Details previously obscured in the private financing market by grand visions were now under the spotlight, laid bare before investors.

The company was burning massive cash, weighed down by heavy leases, plagued by governance chaos, and had a founder with excessive power. It claimed to be a tech company, but the more Wall Street looked, the more its core business appeared to be leasing office buildings and subdividing and subletting them. This business could hardly support a $47 billion valuation.

The market began to doubt Son's own abilities, forcing him to reflect on his investment style: Were those who could articulate grand visions more likely to get Son's money? Did he value founder charisma too much and financial discipline too lightly? Why was SoftBank willing to give such high valuations? Why believe a company that hadn't proven profitability could burn cash into a future? Could a founder who was good at saying 'change the world' make Son overlook due diligence, valuation, and business models?

Months later, WeWork withdrew its IPO. Adam Neumann resigned as CEO. The valuation plummeted from $47 billion to around $8 billion.

But by then, SoftBank and WeWork were in the same boat, unable to disembark. SoftBank had no choice but to bail it out.

Heaven abhors excess; human affairs avoid perfection. The company once lifted to the clouds by Son suddenly became the most glaring loss on SoftBank's books.

In November 2019, SoftBank posted its first quarterly loss in 14 years. The Vision Fund alone lost nearly $9 billion in a single quarter. Son admitted his misjudgment and that he had turned a blind eye to WeWork's governance issues. Because he wanted so desperately to find the next Alibaba, to replicate that victory of betting early when everyone else couldn't see.

In 2020, the wounds widened. The pandemic hit global markets. Uber underperformed its original myth. Oyo fell into layoffs and governance controversies. OneWeb filed for bankruptcy. Wirecard imploded, and later Greensill collapsed.

The money Son scattered had basically turned into shattered fragments.

Then, in 2021, fortune briefly glanced his way again. DoorDash, Coupang, and others went public. SoftBank's stock surged, and buybacks pushed the price higher. That year, Son returned to the top of Japan's wealth list. For a while, the outside world thought WeWork was just an ugly interlude, and the Vision Fund could eventually cover its losses with a few big wins. Son seemed about to prove once more that he wasn't wrong, just early to the market again.

But it was just a brief recovery. Starting in the second half of 2021, the winds changed. China tightened internet regulations, US inflation heated up, interest rates rose, and global tech stocks receded. The market was no longer willing to pay infinite money for 'will be big in the future.' Companies reliant on financing, scale, and imagination to support their valuations suddenly had to answer the same old question: When exactly will you make money?

Heaven and Earth have cycles; life has its ups and downs. Observing the way of Heaven and acting accordingly—that is all.

In 2022, Son truly fell into the biggest trough of his life.

The SoftBank Vision Fund lost about $27.5 billion in the 2021 fiscal year. In August 2022, SoftBank announced a net loss of about $23.4 billion for a single quarter.

He said he cried for two whole weeks. "For two weeks, I cried every day. I did nothing. I was anxious, didn't know what to do."

Recalling that period later, Son left a sincere monologue: "I thought about how I am already old, my remaining life is limited, but I haven't achieved anything. I cried a lot. I asked myself, am I really going to grow old like this and then die? People call me a successful businessman? Entrepreneur? Business guru? But I really felt sorry for myself."

SoftBank also began to shrink. New investments slowed dramatically. The Vision Fund team faced layoffs. Assets were continuously monetized. Alibaba, the功臣 that once helped Son turn his fortunes, was also gradually sold off by SoftBank to improve its financial structure. Son's business empire was under siege from all sides, and his father was taken by cancer.

In recent years, the companies that excited Son became strings of write-downs and losses. He said, "I would rather accept my own stupidity and ignorance, accept the wrong decisions I made, so I can learn from them." He admitted that he was too happy when he saw huge profits in the past and now felt ashamed. He also said that if he had been more selective and invested better at the time, the damage wouldn't have been so great.

Many said that Son during those years was not like the Son they knew. He grew quiet and rarely reappeared in the public eye.

He said SoftBank would enter "defense mode," and he would focus on Arm in the coming years.

Looking back today, this was another great investment by Son.

AI Has Forgiven Son

But initially, Arm didn't seem like a destined success; the deal put Son under immense pressure.

In the summer of 2016, SoftBank spent a whopping $32 billion in cash to acquire a 90% stake in Arm, a 40% premium.

Arm was, of course, a good company then. But most of the funds for the acquisition came from bank loans—leverage of 1.5 times raised by an already debt-laden SoftBank. Many investors doubted if Arm was really worth it. Even after being taken private by SoftBank, Arm's increased investments led to falling profit margins and severe performance declines at one point. SoftBank nearly sold Arm to Nvidia.

It wasn't until after ChatGPT that the market re-understood computing power. The vast rivers of artificial intelligence made Arm shine brightly. In September 2023, Arm listed on Nasdaq with an IPO valuation of about $54.5 billion. From about 14 trillion yen at the end of March 2023, SoftBank's NAV rose to about 34 trillion yen in June 2024. Arm now constitutes the bulk of SoftBank's shareholding value. SoftBank stated in its annual report that Arm has delivered returns of 24.6 trillion yen to group shareholders, roughly a 10x return.

If Arm gave Son a pull out of the mud, then OpenAI might be his comeback battle.

In January 2025, OpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle, and MGX announced the Stargate project, planning to build large-scale AI infrastructure in the US, with potential investments up to $500 billion over the next four years.

Subsequently, SoftBank's investments in OpenAI became very aggressive.

In 2025, SoftBank completed an investment of about $30 billion in OpenAI. By February 2026, SoftBank signed an additional $30 billion investment agreement with OpenAI. According to SoftBank's announcement, upon completion of the top-up, SoftBank's cumulative investment in OpenAI is expected to reach $64.6 billion for an approximately 13% stake. In April 2026, SoftBank executed the first tranche of this additional investment, amounting to $10 billion.

In March 2026, SoftBank secured a $40 billion bridge loan, primarily for the subsequent OpenAI investment. It is also selling or monetizing other assets, using Arm shares, SoftBank telecom assets, etc., as financing leverage.

This investment is classic Son. Once again, he is putting SoftBank's most valuable assets on the line to buy a ticket to the next round of the future.

In the internet era, he bet himself on Yahoo and Alibaba; in the mobile internet era, he heavily invested in telecoms, Sprint, Arm; in the Vision Fund era, he scattered money to startups telling huge stories. And in the AI era, he is pushing SoftBank towards OpenAI and AI infrastructure.

At the end of March this year, SoftBank disclosed its OpenAI investment cost at about $34.6 billion, with a fair value of about $79.6 billion, resulting in cumulative investment gains of about $45 billion.

Recently, SoftBank's stock soared, its market cap once surpassing Toyota, making it one of Japan's most sought-after companies. Son also reclaimed his title as Asia's richest person.

Fortune is once again on Son's side.

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Its operational model is built around several key features: Human-like Computer Interaction: The framework offers advanced AI planning, striving to make interactions with computers more intuitive. By mimicking human behaviour in tasks execution, it promises to elevate user experiences. Narrative Memory: Employed to leverage high-level experiences, Agent S utilises narrative memory to keep track of task histories, thereby enhancing its decision-making processes. Episodic Memory: This feature provides users with step-by-step guidance, allowing the framework to offer contextual support as tasks unfold. Support for OpenACI: With the ability to run locally, Agent S allows users to maintain control over their interactions and workflows, aligning with the decentralised ethos of Web3. Easy Integration with External APIs: Its versatility and compatibility with various AI platforms ensure that Agent S can fit seamlessly into existing technological ecosystems, making it an appealing choice for developers and organisations. These functionalities collectively contribute to Agent S's unique position within the crypto space, as it automates complex, multi-step tasks with minimal human intervention. As the project evolves, its potential applications in Web3 could redefine how digital interactions unfold. Timeline of Agent S The development and milestones of Agent S can be encapsulated in a timeline that highlights its significant events: September 27, 2024: The concept of Agent S was launched in a comprehensive research paper titled “An Open Agentic Framework that Uses Computers Like a Human,” showcasing the groundwork for the project. October 10, 2024: The research paper was made publicly available on arXiv, offering an in-depth exploration of the framework and its performance evaluation based on the OSWorld benchmark. October 12, 2024: A video presentation was released, providing a visual insight into the capabilities and features of Agent S, further engaging potential users and investors. These markers in the timeline not only illustrate the progress of Agent S but also indicate its commitment to transparency and community engagement. Key Points About Agent S As the Agent S framework continues to evolve, several key attributes stand out, underscoring its innovative nature and potential: Innovative Framework: Designed to provide an intuitive use of computers akin to human interaction, Agent S brings a novel approach to task automation. Autonomous Interaction: The ability to interact autonomously with computers through GUI signifies a leap towards more intelligent and efficient computing solutions. Complex Task Automation: With its robust methodology, it can automate complex, multi-step tasks, making processes faster and less error-prone. Continuous Improvement: The learning mechanisms enable Agent S to improve from past experiences, continually enhancing its performance and efficacy. Versatility: Its adaptability across different operating environments like OSWorld and WindowsAgentArena ensures that it can serve a broad range of applications. As Agent S positions itself in the Web3 and crypto landscape, its potential to enhance interaction capabilities and automate processes signifies a significant advancement in AI technologies. Through its innovative framework, Agent S exemplifies the future of digital interactions, promising a more seamless and efficient experience for users across various industries. Conclusion Agent S represents a bold leap forward in the marriage of AI and Web3, with the capacity to redefine how we interact with technology. While still in its early stages, the possibilities for its application are vast and compelling. Through its comprehensive framework addressing critical challenges, Agent S aims to bring autonomous interactions to the forefront of the digital experience. As we move deeper into the realms of cryptocurrency and decentralisation, projects like Agent S will undoubtedly play a crucial role in shaping the future of technology and human-computer collaboration.

822 Total ViewsPublished 2025.01.14Updated 2025.01.14

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