Author: Serenity
I do believe LeaderDrive (688017) is an outstanding component leader in the Chinese robotics industry.
I have done extensive research on other robotics targets / $TSLA Optimus suppliers, but LeaderDrive is extremely unique.
Compared to other companies engaged in low-margin assembly or low-value components, the latter also faces higher risks of design obsolescence.
Western institutions like Goldman Sachs Research have repeatedly named LeaderDrive:
-> As a company with high technological barriers (e.g., harmonic reducers).
-> And as one likely to capture the cost of high-value components like planetary roller screws per humanoid robot produced.
In simpler terms, by investing in LeaderDrive, you cover:
1. A variety of different components with high entry barriers.
2. High BOM per humanoid robot if they are combined.
3. Low-cost, large-scale production capability.
For every humanoid robot produced.
Do your own research on this topic before making any decisions; but in the long run, if you believe in the growth of the humanoid robotics industry: I find LeaderDrive (688017) very attractive.
The main risks come from other emerging Chinese companies capturing market share in different individual components.
And from large-scale production profits declining over time; just like $VPG's sensors dropped from $750 in the early pre-production stage to $150.
But overall, I don't believe companies outside China like Harmonic Drive (6324) can achieve the same large-scale production costs, which is why $TSLA Optimus is building a broad supply chain from China.
Therefore, we are likely to see a bifurcation in the supply chain: cheap, mass-produced $15k-$20k humanoid robots from the Chinese supply chain, and high-cost humanoid robots from Western supply chains.
Again, if you look at the current P/E ratio and think it's high; a lot of the misunderstanding comes from not seeing future growth:
There is no mass production yet. AGIbot recently achieved a production run of 10,000 units in March.
But over the next 3-5 years, the TAM for the humanoid robot/robotics industry as forecast by Elon Musk and others is enormous, if he expects to produce millions of humanoid robots annually.
Thus, my expectation is that the current $10.65 billion market cap will appear very small in retrospect, as LeaderDrive captures its share of the overall robotics market.
So I think arguments like this shouldn't be measured with a short-term timeframe (or people shouldn't actively trade a target like this).
Instead, this is more of a long-term investment thesis about how this company can capture a material share of the overall humanoid robotics market, which is expected to grow exponentially in the coming years.
