Bitcoin’s price action in recent days has shifted from controlled upward momentum to rejection in the past 24 hours. After failing to hold above $97,000 last week, Bitcoin has rolled over with expanding downside momentum, printing consecutive indecisive bearish candles on the daily timeframe.
An interesting view was laid out in a recent technical analysis shared on X by a crypto analyst known as Guru, who argued that what many traders mistook for consolidation was, in fact, a late-stage distribution phase for Bitcoin.
Rejection At The Range Top
Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price action on the daily candlestick timeframe chart shows that the leading cryptocurrency has been trading in an ascending channel with a series of higher lows and higher highs since November 2025. An ascending channel is generally bullish, since it suggests buyers are increasingly gaining control.
However, the outlook laid out by Guru projects Bitcoin’s price action resolving into a bearish downturn. Notably, Bitcoin’s price action recently pushed into the upper boundary of the range and was firmly rejected. This rejection is the focal point of his analysis. Instead of a breakout or a clean continuation higher, Bitcoin failed to sustain momentum at resistance, which is a sign that sellers are stepping in.
Source: Chart from Guru on X
In Guru’s view, this behavior is inconsistent with accumulation. He describes the structure as a rising range forming after a completed expansion. The rejection at the upper boundary means supply is overwhelming demand, even though the price is trending slightly higher within the range.
Based on this, the analyst warned that the “party is over” for bulls as a final warning for traders before a projected downturn. “Last call to SELL before the REAL crash hits below 80K. Bulls won’t get another warning,” he said.
Price Target And The Bearish Roadmap
Guru’s analysis is very specific when it comes to where he believes Bitcoin is headed if the range continues to hold as resistance. In terms of a price target, the analyst projected a move that sees BTC falling below $80,000 and even extending the crash below $76,000.
As it stands, Bitcoin is trading at $92,930, having retraced by 2.1% in the past 24 hours. What has added validity to Guru’s prediction is the comparison between his previous analysis in December 2025 and the current price action. A month ago, he shared the same rising channel and outlined a path that he expected the price of Bitcoin to follow within the channel.
Bitcoin respected the channel throughout December, bounced within its boundaries, and then rejected almost precisely where the projection suggested. The subsequent decline is unfolding along the same path he outlined. This alignment has led Guru to double down on his bearish outlook.
The analyst also challenged the narrative of BTC as a dependable store of value in what he describes as a “chaos economy” in 2026.
BTC trading at $93,086 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on Tradingview.com
